NET ZERO EXPLAINED WHAT IT ACTUALLY MEANS IN 2026
Will Richardson explains why most corporate net-zero targets have failed and how 2026 regulatory shifts made carbon offsets legally risky. Scope 3 emissions account for 70-80% of a company's footprint, yet only 11% of large firms with net-zero targets have actually cut emissions. Six concrete actions work: measure all three scopes, set science-based targets, switch to renewables, engage suppliers, cut travel, and adopt circular economy models.
Chapters
Net zero explained. What it actually means in 2026. 80% of the world's largest companies have a net zero target. Only 11% have actually cut their emissions. That gap is where the trouble lives. And in 2026, regulators decided that gap no longer is something they will tolerate. In the next 10 minutes, I'm gonna give you 3 things: what net zero actually means in plain language, not the corporate version; why the strategy almost everyone used until last year is now a legal risk; and the 6 moves that actually work instead. Stay to the end because the 6th one is the one most businesses completely miss, and it is the one that could halve your emissions. I've spent 25 years doing this work. Now let's get into it. What net zero actually means. Net zero means this: by 2050, the UK and most developed nations must reach a point where the total greenhouse gas emissions they produce equal zero. That does not mean we never emit again. It means we cut emissions as far as we possibly can and only neutralize what genuinely cannot be eliminated. Those emissions fall into 3 areas called scopes. Scope 1 is direct emissions from your own operations. The gas boiler in your office, the fuel in your company car. Scope 2 is the electricity you buy. Scope 3 is everything else. Your supply chain, your business travel, the footprint of every product you buy from a supplier. Here is the part most people miss. For most companies, Scope 3 is around 70% of your entire footprint. It is also the hardest to measure and the least understood. So if you can only manage Scope 1 and 2, you're managing the small part and ignoring the big one. And the reason this matters is simple. The science says we need to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Every tenth of a degree above that doubles the risk to people, ecosystems, and economies. Net zero is not a nice-to-have. It is actually a business requirement. Why have only 11% actually cut? Emissions. So here is the uncomfortable question: if 80% of companies have targets, why have only 11% actually reduced anything? Because a target is not a plan. Target is a promise. And to fill the gap between the promise and reality, companies reach for one tool: carbon offsets. Here's how it works. A company emits 100 tons of carbon. Instead of cutting that 100 tons, it buys a credit that claims to remove 100 tons somewhere else. Plant trees here, fund a renewable project there, capture methane from landfill in another continent. On paper, it balances. One ton in, one ton out. Carbon neutral. Job done. The company updates its website, mentions it on every investor call. The marketing team runs with it, but the actual emissions from the business have not changed at all. For years, this was accepted—not by me, by the way. Regulators looked the other way. Investors did not push back. Customers did not ask questions. That's over. And in 2026. The consequences land. So what's changed? The offsets reckoning. 3 things happened at the same time, and together they change everything. First, regulators examined the integrity of carbon offsets. What they found was alarming. The majority of credits from major registries did not represent real additional emission reductions. Independent investigations into rainforest credits found that a large majority did not deliver what they claimed. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market set a new benchmark: the Core Carbon Principle. What's that? They approved 40 methodologies. They rejected 25. That rejection rate tells you how much of the legacy offset market simply failed to meet the bar. Second, the Science Based Target Initiative, which 9,000 companies now follow, held firm on one central rule: to get validation, you must commit to cutting absolute emissions by around 90% before any offsets— and actually, yeah— can be counted for what is left. In this instance, we'd really call them removals, to be honest with you. And offsets do not count towards your reduction targets. They're an optional extra and only if they carry the proper label. Third, the law changed. From 27th of September 2026, the EU's Empowering Consumers Directive bans product-level carbon neutral, climate neutral, and net zero claims if they rely on offsetting. France did this in 2023. Germany's courts have already struck down vague climate neutral marketing. The penalty floor is 4% of national turnover. Put those 3 together and the conclusion is unavoidable. Offsetting on its own is no longer a credible climate strategy. If you're still doing it, you have a narrow window to change course before it becomes a legal and reputational liability. So what actually works? The 6 moves. So if offsets are not the strategy, what is? Reductions. Everything else is background noise. Here are the 6 moves that actually work. 1, measure properly across all 3 scopes. You cannot manage what you have not measured. Scope 3 is where most of your emissions hide— in food and beverage and in media, marketing, and advertising. Scope 3 is Often 70 to 80% of the footprint. If you are guessing at Scope 3, you're guessing at most of your business. 2, set a science-based target. This forces specificity. When did you commit to cuts? By how much? Using what levers? 9,000 organizations now have validated targets because the validation process is rigorous. It is the line between a real target and marketing. Cut Scope 2 to zero. Switch to renewables, and this is the biggest and easiest Line item on most footprints. A real renewable energy contract can remove it entirely. That one action shifts the needle more than almost anything else. 4. Engage your supply chain. The suppliers covering 67% or more of your Scope 3 need a plan. Not a survey. Make emissions data part of your procurement. If your suppliers cannot measure their own footprint, they cannot reduce it. And if they can't reduce it, neither can you. And if they can reduce it, their costs potentially may go down, which potentially may help you. Cut business travel. Domestic flights become rail. Everything else becomes Publish your numbers every month. When emissions become visible monthly, behavior changes fast. 6, and this is the one most businesses miss. Think circularity. The Ellen MacArthur Foundation and Materials Economics found that if we moved the production of cement, aluminium, steel, plastics, and food to a circular model, we would halve global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Say that again. We would halve global greenhouse emissions by 2050, not reduce, halve. That is not a nice add-on. That is a competitive lever, and almost nobody is using it properly. So why not? Only knowing isn't doing. Here is the truth though, we know what to do. The science is clear, the roadmap exists. The gap between knowing and doing is human. Making change actually stick requiring 3 things. First, make it easy. If you want staff to recycle, remove the general waste bins. Recycling becomes the only option and behaviour changes immediately. Second, break the barriers. They might be social. Is turning up sweaty from cycle to work normal in your office? Build showers. They might be financial. Are the low emission options more expensive? Subsidise them. They might be habitual. People default to what they know, so show them an alternative that genuinely works. And third, use social norms. Humans follow the crowd. Tell people that 90% or even 98% of staff recycle, which is true by the way, and the rest will move to match the group. Behavior change is not the soft part of this. It is where implementation actually lives. What this means for you. So here is where this leaves you. The companies pulling ahead in 2026 are treating decarbonization as a competitive advantage, not a compliance task. They measure across all 3 scopes. They engage suppliers. They cut travel. They use the circular economy as a business model. They use high-integrity credit sparingly and only for what is genuinely left. They are not buying their way to net zero. They are building their way there. And that is the real point. Net zero is not about offsetting your way to neutral. It is about building a business that operates differently. One that costs less to run. One that attracts the best talent. One that wins customers. One that survives what is coming. There is no shortcut, but there is a clear path. And now You have it. If this was useful, here is what I do. Every week I break down what is actually happening in sustainability. The regulation, the strategy, the real numbers in plain language you can take, you can take straight into a board meeting. Subscribe so you don't miss it because the rules are changing faster than most businesses can keep up. Drop a comment with one move from this video you think your business should make first. I read every one. And if you are a sustainability professional, a consultant, or an advisor, I'm building a referral network of practitioners who do this work properly. People who understand that real climate action is an investment, not a cost. There is a link in the description if that is you. At 51 to Carbon Zero, we work with FTSE, NASDAQ, XTRA, and IBEX listed organizations to close the gap between ambition and real reduction. If that is the conversation you need to have, the details are below. See you next week.
