Zach Selch uses an ancient Egyptian nilometer as a metaphor for finding the one or two metrics that predict market success. Ancient grain merchants read the Nile to forecast prices; modern sales teams can track pulse-oximeter purchases or vaccination rates to identify where medical devices will sell.
Chapters
Hi. So I'm on the southern tip of Cairo, right by one of the— right by the last existing in situ nilometer in the world, right? Right. Now, you might have heard about a nilometer. A nilometer essentially tells us how much the Nile is going to flood. There are little markings on this. Water comes in, and depending on how much it floods, you can tell what the peak height of the Nile is. And it's interesting, of course, for farmers, but you would see representations of nilometers all over the ancient world. If you were a rich Greek person in the Baltic, in Italy, in Spain, in North Africa, you might have a picture of a nilometer in your house. Why is that? Because if you were a grain merchant, or you invested in grain, By knowing how much Egypt flooded, you could tell what the price of grain was going to be maybe 6 months down the line, because Egypt was the only reliable export market for grain in the ancient world. And depending on how much it flooded, that was how much land was available, and that's how much grain would come out. So a typical farmer in ancient Egypt was exporting 20 times as much as his family needed to eat. That was the only market in the world that was like that. So if you were a merchant someplace, just by knowing what the reading of the nilometer was at peak, you might have a very good way of indicating what the, what the price of grain was going to be in your market that year. Now I like to think about different metrics I can use in my markets, okay? So depending on which market I'm in, very often there's one or two metrics that going to tell me if I'm going to be able to be successful or not. And what do I mean by that? Years ago, I sold a product that was called a capnograph, and it was sold usually to the same people who bought pulse oximeters, but usually only after they bought a pulse oximeter. So if I knew how many pulse oximeters a country bought, I had a reliable number that that market might be viable for my product a year or two later. Similarly, a few years after that, I sold a product that you that measured osteoporosis. But if a country wasn't treating osteoporosis, that wasn't a viable market. But if I had a good idea of how much a country was treating osteoporosis, I knew if that was a viable market for me, and I could, I could really predict well. The last product I sold really sold to markets with a growing middle class. So if I could keep track of where places had a growing middle class and the velocity of growth of their middle class, I could tell if they were a good market for me. And that was very, very successful for me in terms of predicting which markets to go into. And now I'm selling a product that's used for mass vaccinations, and there are one or two figures that if I know them, I can tell if a market is going to be good for me or not. So if I can keep track of these metrics I know where to sell and I know how much to sell. Think about what metrics will help you indicate where is a good market for you. What correlates with your prime target markets? That will help you develop the markets to sell in, identify the correct markets. Remember, when you're ready to grow your international sales, reach out to us. We can help. When you decide it's time to grow your international sales, call us.
