How to Predict Market Winners
2 Oct 2025 · 1 min
0:45
A market prediction method claims 86% accuracy. For a product to win, it needs to be 15 to 20% better than competitors. Marginal improvements of 1 to 5% won't get customers to switch.
A market prediction method claims 86% accuracy. For a product to win, it needs to be 15 to 20% better than competitors. Marginal improvements of 1 to 5% won't get customers to switch.
Well, it turns out it's about 86%. That's our success rate using the approach. Interesting. And it's simply because now you know the problem and now you're just trying to solve a known issue. And the reason I use that number 15 as well is that products that win in the market have to get the job done significantly better than competing solutions. Like, you can't enter a market and get the job done 1% better, 2% better. You can ask yourself that too. Would you switch from your favorite brand to get the job done 1 or 2% better? 5%, 10%. We find the threshold to be in that 15 to 20% range. So if you're going to make headway in a market, you have to make significant headway.
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