A trader with 10 years of experience breaks down a two-scenario method using the first 15-minute candle's high and low, plus a 5-minute volume profile to find where 70% of volume traded. Failed breakouts above that zone trap buyers; continuation moves stay above it. Both setups use the same entry and stop rules.
After 10 years of trading, complexity never made me money. Simplicity did. I call it the first candle value. Mark the high and the low of the first 15-minute candle. That is your opening range. But instead of just trading the breakout, draw the volume profile over those 5 minutes. It shows you where 70% of the volume actually traded. That range is the value area. Top is the value area high and the bottom is the value area low. Now 2 things can happen, and both give you a trade. If price pushes above the value area high and closes back inside, buyers got trapped. That close back inside is your entry. Stop goes at the high. Target is the value area low. But don't just take profit there. Trail your stop with each new candle, because that's when the most explosive moves happen. If price pushes above the value area high and stays there, then the market is accepting higher prices. So wait for the pullback to that level and trade the continuation. Move your stop to each new candle's low and let it run. If you want to learn more about the volume profile, I have a free course and a free community. Comment the word join and I'll DM you the link.
