4,743$ Winning Monday Trade Full Top Down Analysis (80%+ Winrate Strategy)

In this Monday market recap, the presenter walks through a live trading session focused on the Nasdaq 2025 (NQ) mini contract. He outlines a top‑down analysis workflow that starts on the daily chart and drills down through 4‑hour, 1‑hour, and sub‑minute timeframes, emphasizing the importance of analyzing the mini contract even when trading micros. The core of the analysis revolves around identifying and inverting Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – bullish and bearish – and recognizing unmitigated gaps across multiple timeframes. He explains how liquidity draws (strong lows or highs) and displacement of candles serve as signals for potential reversals. Throughout the session he reviews several trade setups: a missed short on a 5‑minute gap, a short taken after confirming a 1‑minute, 2‑minute, and 3‑minute inversion with strong displacement, and a missed 2‑minute bullish entry. For each, he details entry, stop‑loss, and take‑profit levels, risk‑reward considerations, and why he chose to act or stay out. The video also highlights a community aspect, noting over 450 live viewers, and promotes his free streams, mentorship program, and subscription links. The overall tone is instructional and reflective, aiming to teach viewers how to apply top‑down FVG analysis while sharing personal trade decisions and lessons.
Chapters
Welcome back to another market recap of today on Monday with no red folder news. And it was actually a really, really good, especially a really educational day to be trading. Now if you didn't know, I livestream myself trading every single day in the markets, and today I did a free stream. There was over 450 people that watched me trade live. So if you do want access to this, then all of the links are in my bio. Let's start off with the start of the day and what we were actually interested in. So of course, when we are trading, first thing that you need to note, you need to always be doing your analysis off of NQ 2025, okay? If you're trading on micros, don't do your analysis on the micros. Do your analysis on the minis and trade on the micros. The red, the red lines on my charts are equal lows, and if you see green lines on my chart, that is equal highs. So Starting off the day, what was my daily bias? If we look at the daily time frame, as you can clearly see, we have inversed this bullish fair value gap. So because we have inversed this bullish fair value gap, if we zoom in, all inverting the fair value gap means simply means having a bearish candle close below this bullish fair value gap in the market. What does this mean? This means that short positions are, are pretty likely to work. The reason why I wasn't super, super, super, super bearish at this point in the market is for a few reasons. Reasons number 1, we have 4-hour equal highs, we're very close to all-time highs. We also had some trendline liquidity on the lower time frames, and it's not a very, very convincing candle close on the lower time frame, but we had an extremely strong draw on liquidity below, which was this 1-hour low right here. So this 1-hour low at the time of New York open As you can see, if we go back to New York open today, this was not swept. So we had some very nice draws on liquidity above. We actually had a 1-hour unmitigated fair value gap, I believe. Yes, we did. So yeah, we had this 1-hour unmitigated fair value gap. We had this 1-hour low. So these were kind of the draws on liquidity that I was looking at going into the day. And as you can see, open, we shoot straight up tapping into this 1-hour unmitigated fair value gap. So now this is no longer an unmitigated fair value gap, we tap straight into it and we have this 1-minute bullish fair value gap. Now this is actually a trade that not that many people took, but some people did take a losing trade here. The reason why I never entered into this trade personally was for 2 reasons. One, again, the higher time frame wasn't 100% sure, I wasn't 100% confident in the bias being bearish at this point. Um, but at the same time, this does not look like a bad trade. And the other main reason why I didn't take this trade because— was because of this candle close. When we inverse a 5-minute gap, you'll see it a lot in the future, you don't want to inverse the 5-minute gap with this wick. When you inverse 5-minute gap, you want to see a strong candle with not really a lot of wick. Yes, of course you can still enter if we do have this wick like we do right here, but it is just a lot more likely to work if we have the displacement, because then it does show that we want to go down to the next points on the market. So because we didn't have this displacement, I personally stayed out of the short positions. But I did really like how we tapped into this 1-hour unmitigated fair value gap, and I definitely would have entered into shorts if we got a nice candle close, something exactly like this. So just keep that in mind. And as you can see, it ended up being a losing trade but price did end up coming down and taking out all the lows, and nothing really happened for the next few minutes, I believe. Yeah, as you can see, we get a bit of chop. We're in this bullish fair value gap. We don't inverse it, we just go straight for the lows. No trades to be taken there. But something does happen, interestingly enough, at 10 o'clock. So remember this strong liquidity that I mentioned? We came very, very close to this 1-hour draw on liquidity, but we did not end up taking it. Well, what have we now created? If we go to the 4-hour time frame, we have now created a 4-hour unmitigated fair value gap. So before we had the 1-hour unmitigated that got tapped into, now we just created this 4-hour unmitigated fair value gap above, which I would be more than happy to take long positions from if we have the context. So as you can see, we have this bearish fair value gap on A— now this is very, very interesting, and something that I didn't actually know was we was respecting an LFVG right here. So the last fair value gap of the leg, an extremely, extremely strong confluence. As you can see, we disrespected this LFVG and we failed to take the low. So because we failed to take the low and disrespected the LFVG, we then came up and embarrassed this fair value gap right here. But the reason why I did not enter into this long, even though it was very strong targeting these highs is the fact that the daily bias, one, is not 100% bullish. Two, we failed to sweep the lows right here. And three, we disrespected the LFG. Now the reason why I'm mentioning this and why I think it is so important is because, one, if we was still respecting the LFG, I think I might have entered lightly into this position. Or two, if we did take this low, then I would have entered into this long position. Or three, if my daily bias was bullish or stringy bullish, then I might have entered this lightly targeting this breaking break-even point right here. So it's important to note because on a different day the scenario might be a tiny bit different. So that is quite important to note. And then if we look what happens, price ends up shooting up, uh, and then we get some consolidation. So I mean, I didn't enter into the trade. You could have entered it if you're a bit more aggressive. And then this is where the first trade happens. So now we tap into this 4-hour unmitigated. So sadly there was no trade catch that 4-hour unmitigated. And this trade right here, if you're wondering, no, not a trade to take. Don't just enter every inversion 5-hour you get. You see, this 5-hour, it's a bit too small, not really a lot of context. We're getting some choppiness here. But yeah, price ends up coming up, taking these highs, we tap into the 4-hour unmitigated, and then we come straight down. Now this is the first trade that I took. We inverse the 1-minute, we inverse the 2-minute, we inverse the 3-minute, we failed to inverse the 4-minute, but we also did inverse ES. So, and as well on ES, we had triple equal lows right here. So because of those confluences, triple equal lows on ES, we inverse the 1-2-3, mainly the displacement. So very strong displacement. We tapped into the 4-hour unmitigated. We have this very nice draw on liquidity. Do you see how these confluences just start stacking up and stacking up, stacking up? There's lots of reasons why this is a good trade to take. So I entered into a short position position here, stop loss there, my take profit was this low here. And have a look what happens— we came down so quick, quick. I didn't manage to take any partials off here just because the move happened so quick. Normally I would take something off there because it's above a 1:1 risk to reward. And yeah, we end up— I believe we end up coming down. Yeah, so this trade does technically end up working, but there was no trade to catch directly from this point right here. But what is very interesting is if we go to the 2-minute time frame, remember we still have this draw on liquidity. And I also said in my free stream, a free tip for you guys, whenever we come— well, I mean, this whole thing has been a free tip, but you get what I mean. Whenever we come so close to a strong draw on liquidity— so this is a 1-hour and a 4-hour low, an extreme— look, a swing low, an extremely strong draw on liquidity. Whenever we come so close to withdrawing liquidity like this and don't take take it. Most of the time, we simply— we will come down and take the liquidity draw, okay? As simple as that. So we need to look for a trade to get to that draw on liquidity. We know what the draw on liquidity most likely is. We got a break-even here, and then boom, we have this 2-minute bullish value gap. So this is where— this would be the next best entry. Um, it's not a 1-minute, it's only a 2-minute, it's not a 3-minute, it's not 4-minute, um, well, it is a 4-minute with 4-minute inverse, and same with a 5-minute, right? Yeah, so it's only a 2-minute time frame for value gap. And if we play price action, that price action out again, look what happens— displacement. Okay, I hope you're seeing the patterns here. The trades that work tend to have a lot of displacement. It's very important to note we get displacement below this value gap. This is your entry, stop loss above, take profit at the lows right here. When we take the lows, you trail your stop loss. As simple as that. A very nice simple trade. I personally did not take this trade today, and I just made a mistake. I fumbled an easy trade to take. Everybody in my stream literally caught it. I just failed to take it. It's just one of those days where, I don't know, I guess I just wasn't focused enough. Or I was focused, I genuinely don't know why I didn't take this trade. It should have been an easy simple textbook winning trade be obvious draw liquidity, obvious entry. But I'm glad everybody in my stream took it, as you can see right here. But of course, this was the trade recap for today. Thanks everybody for watching. All of the links are in my bio. Let me know if you like this video— quick, simple, and easy, straight to the point. Subscribe to this channel. All of the links are in my bio. Free live streams and my mentorship— you do not want to miss out. Let's go!
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