6,743$ Winning Trade Full Top Down Analysis (80%+ Winrate Strategy)

In this video Kai Davis walks viewers through a live‑executed trade taken during a high‑impact PPI news release. He explains his systematic approach: establishing a bullish daily bias by identifying bullish fair‑value gaps (FVGs) and liquidity pools, then zooming into the 1‑minute chart to locate bearish FVGs that can be “inversed” for long entries. He details how to define the news high and low on the 1‑minute timeframe, why the news high is the primary liquidity target, and how to manage risk with stop‑loss placement (avoiding moving to break‑even at internal liquidity levels) and take‑profit targets (initial 1:1 R‑R, then extending to news high). Throughout, he stresses patience, avoiding random entries, and waiting for clean setups. The video also promotes his free daily Discord live streams, a mentorship program, and a giveaway of a funded account for viewers who watch to the end.
Chapters
We are on a fat win streak right now and we have no plans on stopping anytime soon, literally using fair value gaps and liquidity. Now this is going to be a trade recap on the trade that we took today, and I recorded my live execution, so stay to the end of the video. First of all, I live stream daily, so with the— see the stuff that you're seeing in this chart, I'm not just saying in hindsight. Of course these trades are after the trade has worked, But have a look right here, right here. I'm playing the video. These are all of the people that took the exact same trade with me on my live streams. I live stream for free every single day on my Discord, so the link is in my bio. Make sure you join that. Also, my mentorship is now starting. But let's skip to the good stuff. Today we had PPI. What is PPI? It is a fat red folder news event. If you go to forexfactory.com That is where you'll find all of your news. And the news that has a red folder little box next to it, and that— and then it will say a time. And then at that time, what you want to do is go to the high of this candle and go to the low of this candle. The high of this candle is the news high, the low of this candle is the news low. Okay, you do that on the 1-minute time frame. This is two extremely, extremely strong draws on liquidity, and where price action statistically most of the time wants to target, okay? It is as simple as that. As you can see, this news low, the news low got swept. So we play on, we carry on price action. What we realistically want is we want a trade to come up and then we take a long position to this news high. Let's actually start off with the daily time frame as well. So daily bias, we get our daily bias by looking for fair value gaps and looking for liquidity. We don't use trends and we don't use trend lines, okay? If you want to be a profitable trader, you need to stop using trends and trend lines and start using a daily bias. So we could be in a downtrend, but we could still have a daily bias. That is very important to note. And again, the way that we find our daily bias is through fair value gaps and liquidity. Firstly, what would your daily bias be right here? The simple answer is, when we are at all-time highs, your daily bias should be bullish. Okay, there's no two ways about it. When we're at all-time highs, we're at all-time highs, your daily bias should be bullish. Nobody knows when we're going to come down, okay? Nobody. You might think you know, you don't know, okay? I don't know, you don't know, nobody knows. So it's a— the reason why I'm saying that is a common mistake that traders will make is they'll see that we've recently swept all-time highs and then they'll be like, oh, okay, we must come down now, we swept buy-side liquidity. And to put it simply, that's just not how the markets move, okay? Although we swept buy-side liquidity, doesn't mean we have to come down. Our bias is bullish because we're at all-time highs. We haven't embraced any bearish fair value gaps. We're respecting bullish fair value gaps on the daily and the 4-hour time frame. And as simple as that. Okay, so let's jump straight back into the 1-minute time frame. Now, on stream, literally the whole streaming session, I was saying to my viewers, we want the news highs. There's no other draw on liquidity. The daily bias is bullish. We're at all-time highs. This news high is the most obvious draw on liquidity that we could possibly get. Okay, news highs— we also had equal highs and news highs on ES, and our daily bias was bullish. So keep all of those things in mind. We want the price to come for news highs. Okay, so what do we want? We want to look for a long position trade, and the way that we're going to do that is on the lower time frames, find a bearish fair value gap and wait for it to be inverse. And this was the first possible look we had at that exact trade. Now as you can see, we have this bearish fair value gap right here. Now you might be wondering, okay, why is this not a good trade to take? We invert it on the next candle. And the thing is, yes, this isn't a bad trade to take. You can take a long position here, your stop loss to break even right, right at this candle right there, um, like that. Your first take profit could easily be this high right here because then we go into the big bearish fair value gap. Or of course you could hold all the way to the news highs, which would be the target. Again, the reason why this is a bit more of a riskier trade is because this is a 9:30 candle open, and ideally you want to wait for 9:30 to start. But I mean, this would have been a breakeven trade either way if you entered into this trade. As you can see, price came up, hit the breakeven point. Your stop loss is only if you get a candle close below the fair value gap, so that would have never been a stop loss right there. Okay, and so yeah, you could have entered that. A bit more of a riskier play just because it is at 9:30, and obviously 9:30 AM New York time is when we get open and there's a lot of volatility. So at this point right here, you just have to be patient. There's so many traders who are randomly going to enter into long positions. For example, right here, look right here. I can guarantee that there was a stupid amount of traders that randomly entered into a long position here because they wanted the news high. And those traders, look what would have happened to them. They would have been like, oh, we're obviously going to hit the new high right here, we're obviously taking the new high. Look what would have happened. Okay, so stop randomly entering into positions and wait for your setup. You have to be patient. That is the raw reality of things. And I know one person watching the video done exactly what I just said, or has done that in the past. So right here we're getting some consolidation. We've came up, we're We want a nice bearish value gap to emboss and then target the new size. As you can see right here, we create a nice 1-minute value gap. Now what is very nice about this 1-minute value gap is because we came up quite fast and then displaced down, this only meant that this value gap is on the 1-minute time frame, which is the best case scenario when you're looking for fair value gaps to enter into. You, you don't want a 1-minute or 2-minute or 3-minute or 4-minute value gap. You simply just want a 1-minute fair value gap only on the 1-minute time frame, wait for that to inverse, then enter from that. Okay, if you get a 1-minute, 2-minute, then you have to wait for the 1-minute and you have to wait for the 2-minute fair value gap. And yeah, it's just not very ideal. So as you can see, we come back down again, not the cleanest of price action in the world here. We got some consolidation and you just, you have to be patient. There's absolutely nothing that you can do. So many traders get impatient, they take unnecessary losses And the real reality of things is you just can't enter here. We get this displacement up again, it looks like we're going to inverse this fair value gap right here. Oh, let's go back. It looks like we're going to inverse this fair value gap here. Loads of people getting ready to enter. Same on this candle. Look, we come up, looks like we want to inverse the candle, we just don't inverse it. What do you do? You just wait. You have to be patient. You can't randomly be entering into positions and hoping we come up. Yes, the daily bias is bullish. Yes, this this is most likely going to get hit because it is a joint liquidity. But you need to wait for your setup. And look what happens, we end up coming down. We actually get a bit more context, we tap into these bullish fair value gaps. We do create a tiny, tiny, tiny 1-minute. Now somebody on my stream said, would I take this? And the answer would be no, I would not take this position, this tiny fair value gap. The reason being is the way that I look at a trade is you need to be happy with taking a loss. And if I entered into this trade and I took an unnecessary loss and then price came up and then burst this fair value gap here, I would just not be happy with myself. So for that reason, I would not enter this small 1-minute. Exactly the same with a 2-minute. We had a small 2-minute there, um, and just the raw reality is you want the— you want this big 1-minute to emboss. It is a lot cleaner and a lot of an easier play to take. And yeah, just gotta be patient, you gotta be patient. And boom, we get a nice displacement candle this would be your entry. It does not matter that we've taken this level out right here. The reason being, this would be your internal liquidity level. Now, getting onto this internal liquidity point, because as you can see, we actually take— we actually take this internal liquidity point, and then a lot of people would have moved their stop loss to break even at this point. The reason why I never move my stop loss to break even at this point in the market is because we had the news highs, okay? I spoke about this so, so, so much on the stream. We have such a strong draw on liquidity Liquidity right here, it's— I would just— it's just not worth it. I would be more willing to take a loss at this point than move my stop loss to breakeven just because we've hit this internal liquidity point. And as you can see, price came up, smashed the news highs. This is where I move my— I'd move my take profit point to around here in the market, and then it's a win-win situation. If we want to run up and take the equal highs, I would have made extra money. If we— if I got stopped out there, I get just above a 1:1 risk reward and catch a a nice winning trade, and that's exactly what happened. I hope you found this video useful. All of the links are in my bio. I'm going to be posting so much on this channel, so make sure you do comment. I'll give away one funded account because I just caught this trade today and I'm feeling nice. Simply comment a nice message and put a smiley face at the end of the message so I know that you've watched it all the way to the end. Make sure you subscribe, join my free daily live streams. Had over 250 people in there today, and I'll see you all tomorrow. Let's go!
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