This Trade made me 0$ today but will make me 1,000,000$ over time...(TRADE BREAKDOWN)

Kai Davis breaks down a trade that closed at breakeven despite a perfect entry setup. He walks through multiple timeframes to show how fair-value gaps and news highs create high-probability entries, then explains why taking these setups consistently matters more than any single trade's outcome.
Chapters
Welcome back to another video on— welcome back to another video on this channel. Now today we're going to be doing a full trade breakdown from today's trade. Now today is a type of trade where the trade was amazing but the result wasn't. We had such a great entry but the trade did not hit my take profit. Therefore, if you're watching this video, you're already doing better than most people because this trade did not hit our take profit, meaning meaning that I haven't made stupid amount of money, meaning that the, the thumbnail, the title of this video is not going to be as flashy as some of my other videos. But if anything, this video is going to be one of the most valuable videos to watch, because at the end of the day, all you need to focus on is making sure you get the right entry into the trade. After you enter into the trade, it is completely out of your hands. It doesn't matter if the trade comes up and hits your take profit. It doesn't matter if the trade is a breakeven or a stop loss. So your work is done, you just need to make sure you're managing the trade correctly, and that is exactly what we've done today. Now let's start off with the higher time frames because that is very, very important. Also, if you trade Apex accounts, they just released at 90% off, code Louis of course to get that discount. Now with the daily time frame, it is very interesting. We have a daily unmitigated bearish fair value gap above. We have been moving up quite stringently for, for a few weeks now, and we have recently unbursted this bearish fair value gap. So for all of those reasons, my daily bias is simply bullish. We've unbursted this daily bearish fair value gap. I do expect us to come up and take out this daily unmitigated fair value gap. Of course, the thing with the higher time frame analysis is that we don't necessarily know when it is going to happen. We just know now we've had this bullish candle close above this bearish fair value gap the highest probability of chance is that we will come and tap into this unmitigated. But again, we don't know when it could happen. We could chop for a few more days, we could come up for the highs, and of course it could fail. But it means that the daily bias is bullish right now for this daily unmitigated. Then straight away dropping to the 4-hour, we don't really have much happening on this 4-hour time frame. I mean, we've inverses 4-hour fair value gap. The reason why this doesn't necessarily mean that, that much for me personally is again because of the daily time frame. The daily is more important important. We've actually inverses a small 4-hour bearish fair value gap there. And again, we just— we're very close to the daily unmitigated fair value gap, only 200 points away. If you've been trading recently, you know that 200 points is not a very big range. I would say the, the most interesting time frame today actually was the 15 minutes. So as you can see here, at 9:15, and we inverse this 15-minute fair value gap. So even though my daily bias is bullish and I want long positions, we actually had a new low yesterday from— I believe it was at 25605.50. So right here, this was a news low. So if we actually go back, and this was at the start of the session, so this candle was open here, we inverse this 15-minute bearish— sorry, we inverse this 15-minute bullish fair value gap, getting this candle close below the fair value gap. Even though my daily bias is bullish, it still would now make the most sense for price action to come down and target and take out this liquidity. So because we've invested 15 minutes, this is what should be taken. We didn't have trendline liquidity there. So yeah, and I mean, that happened perfectly. So the best case scenario actually here would be price to invest 15 minutes, come down, take these lows, and then go for the highs. I'm pretty sure— is that what happened? Let's play it out. Okay, yeah, so we came down, took out the 15-minute news lows, and then we came up. Yeah, perfect, that is exactly what happened. So we ended up coming down, we took out that 15-minute— sorry, we took out that news low, we took out that 15-minute low. Very, very nice. Um, and then potentially here, this is where we get the trade. Okay, so this is the trade that I entered into today. We get the displacement down, we create this bearish fair value gap. Now really pay attention to what I'm about to say because you probably won't hear it again unless of course you join my live streams, you join my trading course, which I 100% recommend. If you want to get one-on-one mentored by me, then message me on Instagram. The link is in my bio. Personally message me, I will personally respond to you, and yeah, we will chat about it and see if the one-on-one mentorship is the right fit for you or if it's not the right fit for you. So make sure to shoot me a message. Just message me trading so I know that you came from this video. Um, anyway, back to this trade. We have this 1-minute bearish fair value gap. A lot of the time, whenever we create such a big bearish fair value gap like this, it will be on multiple time frames, okay? And that is what made this trade so good, because in this example, this trade was not on multiple time frames. So this fair value gap is only on the 1-minute. We check the 2-minute, it's not there. The 3-minute, it's not there. The 4-minute, it's not there. The 5-minute is not there. And that is simply rare. That is very rare. Whenever we gets a big move down and we only create a 1-minute fair value gap. Being such a big fair value gap, there is normally just other fair value gaps around. As well as this right here, we had this 15-minute SMT. So we had an SMT here, we had this SMT, we had the SMT with the 15-minute low that got swept on ES. We had the 1-minute, and the most important part to this trade is the displacement. As well as the displacement, I can't believe I haven't mentioned this yet, we had red folder news at 8:30 AM. As you can see, red folder news, this creates a news high. This is just an extremely strong draw on liquidity, and this is still my favorite draw on liquidity. I would love price action to go up and target these news highs resting in the market. So let's put all the context together. SMT, displacement, news high, 1-minute fair value gap, very important. Now you might be wondering, okay, how would you manage a trade like this? Now the first thing that you want to notice and that you want to note is whenever we get a trade like this after we've moved down so quickly, that is most likely going to be unmitigated fair value gaps. So the first thing that you want to check for is where are those unmitigated fair value gaps. We have a 2-minute unmitigated here, we have the 4-minute unmitigated at the same spot, we have a 3-minute unmitigated at the same spot, and we do not have a 5-minute unmitigated. So do you see how many unmitigated fair value gaps there are? Now again, with this type of trade, what you're going to find a lot of the time in the future is the unmitigated fair value gap will be too close to your entry, therefore you can't enter into the trade. But yet again, this is another reason on why this trade is so good, because we have room to actually play with the trade. Now what I mean by that is, of course, this is going to be your entry point. Your stop loss to break even has to be at these unmitigated fair value gaps, okay? Because an unmitigated simply means a fair value gap that has not been tapped into yet, by the way. Now the reason why is because you enter here, we have an extremely high chance of coming to these unmitigated fair value gaps, and that what it is, that is what it does instantly. Now when we tap into these unmitigated fair value gaps, I don't care how good of a trader you think you are, at the end of the day nobody knows if we're going to respect these fair value gaps and come for the lows, or if we're going to emboss these fair value gaps and potentially come up. So what you have to do as a trader is manage your risk. Move your stop loss to break even because now you no longer know if we're going to respect this and come down or inverse it and come up. So I'm simply break even here. I would target the news high as my take profit, and that is exactly how I would take this trade. Sadly, in this instance, this trade was a break even. I mean, yeah, it's just a very, very nice entry with just sadly not a very nice result, a break even. But again, you want to take this trade every single time that you see it, in my opinion. And yeah, well done for watching this video to the end. If you have any questions, let me know. If you have any questions, let me know in the comments. If you want me to keep posting videos on this second channel like I have been, again, comment below, subscribe, like, and I'll see you all in the PM session because we have FOMC. Let's go!
More from Louis

I lost 4,000$ Today Trading and would do it again next week... (FULL TRADE BREAKDOWN)

Losing 4,354 and i would do it again tomorrow... (80% win rate model trade breakdown)








