When the right answer is unknown, experts often apply familiar frameworks to novel problems, making their guidance unreliable. COVID showed this: experts contradicted each other on masks, vaccines, and school closures because no one actually knew what worked. Better approach: try something, gather data, adjust.
But then, there are issues where nobody knows the answer. And in fact, in those types of situations, experts are some of the worst people to be driving the decision-making because an expert is like the person with the hammer. Every problem is a nail. They have their way. They have more and more information about less and less. But in fact, nobody really knows what's going to emerge as a solution. And I actually look at COVID as a prime example of that. We had experts who were telling us you have to wear masks, or you can't wear masks, or you have to have a shot, or maybe You have to keep your kids from school. Oh, maybe that isn't such a good idea. And we're going back and forth with these experts telling us exactly what to do. But the fact of the matter is nobody really knew. And so, in those types of situations, you have to be prepared to try things, take the information from what you're trying, and use that to adjust for your next steps.
