Richard Vaughton predicts 2025 will push small STR owners out through rising costs and regulation, while AI from Google and Anthropic helps larger operators cut staffing expenses and build direct bookings through loyalty programs.
So what's 2025 going to produce? Well, we're in mature markets in many countries now and even Airbnb, biggest name in political homelessness is the one you get on the block. Those mature markets are increasingly depending on tech. They're facing legislation, they have sustainability needs, high staff costs, and it means many of those people who are coming to the end of their long slog when they have started a lifestyle business are increasingly likely to want to sell. Owners are also beginning to question managers in oversupplied markets. They've experienced 2021 income and there's intense competition. So this is just compounding the whole issue. I think for these long term managers, the same applies to small TEC businesses. I think we're going to see more roll ups and pivots. It's the only way to go and we've got so many of them. A big one to watch, I think is a significant acceleration in AI in its current use of efficiencies, but also the likes of Google and Anthropic, which are beginning to deliver human like keyboard and software emulations. It may allow managers to be more creative on workflows as well. Finally, loyalty programs and experience centered companies should in theory be able to help more direct booking opportunities because the otas have been hammering into space very, very heavily.
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