New House Price Crash Warning ⛔️

New house price crash warning. So there's been an official warning about a 2-year property market crash, and this is from the Office for Budget Responsibility. But I think they're way out. I've actually just been analyzing the property prices since 1974 this morning And I've been having a debate stroke argument with someone online about property prices historically. So the OBR, the Office for Budget Responsibility, believe that, um, between now and autumn 2024 there'll be a 9% drop, which is what, something like 1.2 1.5% a quarter, something like that? Nah, no chance. Absolutely no chance. It's going to be way more than that, way more, and I'm going to explain why. So, um, interest rates are going up quite hard actually. So if you think about it, um, what people were paying for a mortgage now seems really low because their mortgages could actually double in, in its monthly cost potentially. You know, not long ago, a year ago, people were sometimes paying 0.5% of an interest rate on their mortgage. Now people are paying nearly 7%. 7%. So many people are now not going to be able to afford their mortgage. What happens when they can't afford their mortgage? They have to either sell their property, and they have to sell it quick, which means they have to sell it low, which perpetuates the crash, or they have to go bust and there's repossessions, and they always sell really low in repossessions, which perpetuates the crash. In addition to that, you've got all the factors of COVID lockdown, the half a trillion plus that the government spent on those and the vaccines, etc. You're really high inflation, the, the cost of living crisis, the energy crisis. This is all fueling up, I believe, to be one of the biggest recessions or corrections on record. Now, some people accuse me of being a doom monger, but let me ask you this: would you rather prepare for the worst case scenario or the best case scenario? Like, I'm actually a pretty optimistic guy. I like to see the upside in the downside and the opportunity in the difficulty. But unless you prepare for the downside, you're just being completely naive. So I don't want you to be naive. I want you to actually see the opportunity, be prepared so it doesn't wipe you out. Because by the way, if there is this big recession, correction, or crash, as long as you're liquid and you've got cash and you're prepared for the downside and you're ready, You could buy some absolute bargains, whether it's your own home which you want to buy, you know, as a first-time buyer. Now all of a sudden you can get in the market. Because actually, if you think about it, a recession correction crash is not all bad. Why? Because it's easier for first-time buyers to get in because first-time buyers are priced out of the market. So I'm not being a doom monger. People just can't face reality. Craig has said reality is a bitch. His words, not mine. But he's right, people can't face reality, they want it to be rosy. They just want to hide away from all the issues and watch Netflix and alleviate their pain by entertainment. I'll have football and alcohol and Netflix and I'll ignore the reality because I can't handle it. This is the problem with most people. Gary has said, still going on about it. I am going on about it because this is new news, Gary, if that's what you meant by me still going on about it, me still ranting about it. So I'm going to talk about the opportunity in a moment. But I believe the stats are way underplayed by the Office for Budget Responsibility or the government or whoever are predicting this correction. Because do you know, in Q2 2008 to Q2 2009, we had double-digit drops every quarter— 10, 11, 16% drop a quarter. Not a year, a quarter. 30, 35% or more drop in total in a year. And someone said to me, oh, they got triggered by me saying that the crash is going to be hard and fast. It's not hard or fast. Well, what, double-digit drops? 10%, 16% in one month of the total value of your property? One-sixth in 3 months? A quarter? If that's not hard and fast, I don't know what is. Imagine if your bank account went down by 15% in 3 months. You'd think that's pretty hard and fast. So I think the government or the official Office for Budget Responsibility and all these people who are predicting the corrections, I think they're way out. I think it's going to be much harder, much faster, and much more. Now I had a look at all the data on Nationwide since 1974. And do you know, there's only been 7 years out of 50 where the market has dropped by anything, and, and often that's like 1 or 2%. And then when the markets crash, which seems to have happened 3 times since '74, they drop a lot in one short period of time, whether that is a bulk of about a year or a bulk of about 18 months. This is what has happened in the last, what, 50 years or so. So get ready for it. And of course, you've got all this other stuff going on— super high inflation, now mega rising interest rates, really low cost of living, your lowest cost of living since the Second World War, energy crisis, food crisis, lockdown, COVID vaccine, Brexit. It's all gearing for a perfect storm of possibly the biggest recession or depression that maybe we've had, I don't know, since the Second World War, who knows. Now look, might I be wrong? Yeah. Might it not be quite as bad as I think? Yeah. Because, you know, the government could put in artificial stimulus which will just delay it even more. But we've got a lot of artificial stimulus going back many years, like interest rates being kept artificially low and the massive printing of money eroding the government debt. But what happens when you put artificial stimulus in place to hold the economy It just builds the pressure, builds the pressure, builds the pressure, builds the pressure. Now, to all those people who can't handle a bit of bad news or reality mongering and see it as doomsday, if prices drop, then it's easier to buy as a first-time buyer. If prices drop, your returns as an investor go up. You can afford the mortgage payments. You can make a net profit. And if prices drop and you buy once the prices have dropped, then you're going to get relatively more growth. They're going— you're going to be able to get in the market for buying or investing more easily. It's also going to teach you how to be a contrarian investor, because by definition, if you want to be a successful investor, you have to be a contrarian. Observe the masses, do the opposite. Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Why? Because most of the planet is skin. So by definition, common sense is actually uncommon. Yeah, you're absolutely right, David. David is just— sorry, Dave has just corrected me here. Yeah, we have our— well, we have our lowest relative spending power since the Second World War, Dave. I think that's the official term for it. Our lowest relative spending power. Power, because obviously inflation has pushed prices up since the Second World War. So non-relatively, in absolute terms, we could buy more than we could in the Second World War. But relatively, the relative cost of living is the lowest since the Second World War. Dave thinks we're already in a recession. I'm not sure if we technically are yet, but we're very close. Um, I think you have to have 2 quarters in a row of negative growth, or is it 3 for a technical, technical recession? But technical versus real you know, they're often different. Because if the, um, if we have 0.1%— now let's say we have 0.5% negative growth 3 quarters in a row— that's actually reverse compounded, because the drop goes on the drop on the drop, less than 1.5% in 3 quarters. That wouldn't feel like a recession. But if we had one where it went down 15%, that would feel like a recession. So So there's technical, and then there's just what actually hurts. So look, you've got to protect yourself from this. And here's the upside, and here's the opportunity, and here's the positivity that everyone's looking for. And that is, you've got to be ready. You can't wait until the market bottoms to then get in, because it often does happen hard and fast. You'll either be waiting and it won't happen as quickly as some of us think, or you'll miss it, and you'll miss one of the best opportunities to buy in many decades, probably. So you've got to educate yourself on investing, educate yourself on money. You've got to be liquid, and liquidity is not just how much cash you got in the bank, but it's, um, can you get loans from banks? Do you have private investors and private financiers and people who you could reach out to and raise money if there was a great deal and a great opportunity? Because great deals and opportunities usually find money. So you've got to make yourself investable and get good connections. You've also got to get better at financial education and knowledge around money and the monetary system and understand how the banks work and make their money, and understand how you can use what the banks do on you back on them to invest in assets, to create leverage, to create passive and recurring income. So if you'd like to learn how to do all this and to cash in on the crash— because you know what, I wrote a book called Cash In on a Property Crash, and actually I, I bought the best deals I ever bought, 2008 and '09, right in the middle of and at the end of the last recession. So I'm fully expecting myself to be able to do the best deals since 2008 in the next 2 to 5 years, or even starting soon. But you've got to get educated, you've got to be ready, you've got to know how to invest, you've got to be liquid. So if you'd love to learn how to do all of this and learn how to cash in on the crash and raise money, um, then join Rob.team, because Rob.team is my digital financial freedom platform to help you start and scale a business get better financial education and knowledge, make, manage, and multiply money, learn how to raise finance, learn how to cash in on the crash, learn how to be a property investor, uh, and buy assets when the market is dropping, but also learn how to invest in all classes and types of assets in the best times when there are recessions and depressions. So if you'd love to learn how to do all of this go and join Rob.team. If you open up a new web page now and type in Rob.team, you can join my digital financial freedom platform. Christopher's just put the link in there, um, and it costs you less than 20 pence a day. You can cancel anytime, there's no ongoing contract, and there's hundreds of hours of content going back years. There's how to cash in on a crash, there's how to raise finance, and, um, not just bank finance, by the way, but private finance. It's how to make, manage, and multiply money masterclass. There's how to get your tax bill down, a masterclass on that. There's how to build multiple streams of income, there's a masterclass on that. Um, and right now we are on the edge of possibly one of the biggest crashes ever, but one of the biggest opportunities ever. But you have to get educated and be ready, otherwise you'll miss it in the blink of an eye. So if you want to join nearly 10,000 other movers, shakers, changemakers— by the way, in rob.team you can pitch your products and services on certain platforms that I've got, and you can do collaborations and partnerships and joint ventures with other members, movers, shakers, and changemakers. So to join, just open up a new web page, type in r-o-b dot t-e-a-m, rob.team. Join right now, cancel anytime, no ongoing contract, less than 20p a day, hundreds of hours of content going back many years. Dave has made the point that someone have to sell even though they don't want to. Exactly. Um, because if their mortgages are too high because they're on a variable rate mortgage, then they might be forced to sell because they can't afford the mortgage. And when you have to sell and you're forced to sell, you have to sell quick. And when you sell quick, you have to sell cheap. Also, um, there might be some repossessions hit the market because people can't sell quick enough or they default on their mortgages. Repossessions are often 20%, 30% or more sold below the peak purchase price because again, when they're sold quick, they have to be sold cheap. And this perpetuates the drop in price because as you get more properties that sell for a lower price, it pulls the average price down. It's also about emotion. So the more doomsday-ish and scared people are in the market, the less they're going to offer, or they're not even going to offer at all. So the sales volume reduces, or the prices reduce because the offers reduce, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But also, learning to leverage this and being an investor and buying distressed assets and having multiple streams of recurring income— this is also self-fulfilling in that you can see the crash as doom, or you can see the crash as opportunity. You can see falling prices as a bad thing, or falling prices as a good thing. It all depends on how you think. And I like to teach people the mindset, not just the skill set, of being an investor and a contrarian. So if you'd like to learn the mindset as well as the skill set of being an investor and an entrepreneur, and you'd like to start a side hustle, and you'd like to get asset classes that produce recurring income, one final chance right now because I've got to get out of here. Go and join rob.team. It'll cost you less than 20 pence a day. You can cancel anytime. No ongoing contract. It's digitally downloadable anywhere in the world. There's 10,000 mover-shaker-changemaker members just like you to partner with, to collaborate with. And also, your network is your net worth, so getting a really good network, ongoing training. So I've done How to Raise Finance twice, um, two different courses on that in Rob.team. We've also done two pieces of content on how to cash in on a crash, and also, um, you know, property investing and getting into property. There's the 9-module, 10-hour How to Invest series. 9-module, 10-hour How to Invest series. Watches, classic cars, gold, property, business, stock market, crypto, you name it, because they're great investing opportunities if you know how. And if you know how to leverage the emotion and the panic and the fear and not let it affect you. So I'll see you in rob.team. Thanks for all the kind comments in the chat. And finally, let me ask you this: do you think there's a recession coming, or do you think there's a depression coming? Do you agree with the Office for Budget Responsibility who've said there'll be a 9% drop in the next 18 months, or do you, like me, think it'll be much more? Let me know what you think in the comments below, and I'll see you in rob.team.