The "First Candle Rule" Is The Easiest Way To Become Profitable FAST

Jesse Rogers presents the First Candle Rule, a trading strategy that marks the high and low of the first 15-minute candle at market open, then enters on a three-candle fair value gap on a 5-minute chart with a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. A one-month backtest showed 16 trades, $15,455 net profit on one contract, and an 81% win rate.
Chapters
The first candle rule is by far the easiest way to become profitable fast. And it works so well that it almost feels like cheating. Now, if someone would have told me this nine years ago whenever I started trading, I would have been able to have consistent winning days like this, this, and this much sooner. And today you'll learn how this simple approach to trading will help you avoid the fatal mistakes that plague most traders. That way you can cut out the wasted time and effort and become consistently profitable much sooner. But why is it that it takes most traders years to become profitable? Well, it's not because they don't work hard enough. And I know this because it took five years of me busting my to become profitable. But it could have, and quite frankly should have only taken me one. And it probably would have if I had avoided the two fatal mistakes that keep most traders stuck. And I'm not even going to talk about the third one because if you make that one, well, you don't even want to know. So let's hop right into mistake number one, which is that most traders aren't trading to win, but instead they're trading not to lose. This is because they're haunted by past mistakes and absolutely terrified of blowing another account. And this too, I know because I was stuck in this exact cycle for years. This was me in 2021. Five years into my journey, I was still blowing so many accounts that whenever I would sit down to trade, I would be physically tense. My neck muscles would literally be tense because I was so fearful of making the same mistakes over and over again. And after a while, I realized that that fear wasn't even about money because I didn't care to lose money. It was about trust. I had lost trust in my own ability to execute. Now this is where most traders get stuck. You end up overthinking, hesitating, you second guess yourself. It's like you're trying to walk on a tightrope to even execute a trade. And much like life, trading is painfully ironic in that the more that you try not to lose, the faster that you will lose. Now, before you think this is going to be another guru trading psychology motivational speech, I want to be clear that the solution is not another mindset, hack or affirmation or another trading psychology book. Instead, the solution is a clear cut process that takes the emotion out of executing trades. That way you don't have to just trust yourself, but you trust in a proven process instead. And the first candle rule gives you exactly that. And today you'll learn the full strategy and then we will even test it together with data to prove to you that it works. That way you have the full confidence needed to trade it consistently and inherently become a profitable trader much faster than you would have before. Now, the second fatal mistake that traders make is they think that more knowledge means more success. But knowledge without a clear way to use it is actually more hurtful than good. Now, if you're like most traders, you've spent months or maybe even years learning from a dozen different mentors, watching a dozen different trading channels and learning hundreds of strategies. And now your chart looks something like a laser show from an electronic music festival. And now you're overloaded with information, but you have no structure on how to act on any of it. And let me be clear, that information is completely useless if you cannot execute using this information. You don't need more trading courses or PDFs or, or more YouTube videos or social media. What you need is a step by step strategy that is so simple, even a complete beginner couldn't mess it up. One of my best mentors, whenever I was learning how to trade, said something to me that stuck to me to this day, and that is that you can become more successful by implementing what you learn in one video than you can by trying to combine what you've learned in a hundred videos, which is my goal. With the video that you're watching right now, it'd be the last video that you ever need. And after this, you just delete social media, go out and trade this again and again and again and again until you become a profitable trader, which will make you profitable much faster. Now let's hop on a chart. That way you can learn the full strategy and then we'll back test it together to prove to you that it works. So you're probably wondering, what is the first candle rule? Well, it is a stupid, simple trading strategy that even a complete beginner couldn't mess up. And I want you guys to remember this, stupid simple always wins when it comes to becoming profitable fast. I see so many traders when wastes years because they're chasing all these complicated strategies. And with what you're about to see, I guarantee you're going to want to throw all your old strategies in the trash. Now the goal of this strategy is really simple. We want to get in the market and make consistent profits in less than 90 minutes per day and then get out. Because chances are if you're unprofitable, you probably sit around at your screen way too long and end up taking a bunch of trades that you shouldn't be taking. But with this strategy, you don't want to be in front of your screens all day long. Now, to start off your trading day, you want to get to your desk right at 9:30am Eastern, Eastern standard Time. Then what we want to do is go up here on Trading View, which is the charting software I'm using, and you want to click the 15 minute button. This is going to bring you to the 15 minute chart where each of the candles you're looking at represents 15 minutes worth of trading time. Now in this example we're looking at the NASDAQ futures markets, but this works in any market, whether it's futures, stocks, crypto or forex. And you use the same time in any market. And the reason for this is this first 15 minutes has more volume in the day than any other 15 minute period. And I'm about to show you why that's so important. Which brings us right to step number one of the first candle rule strategy, identifying our key levels, meaning where do we want to look for trade opportunities at. Now in order to do this, remember we want to be on our 15 minute chart and we're going to wait until the 9:30 to 9:45am 15 minute candle closes and then you want to mark out the high and the low of this first 15 minute candle. To do so, you can go over here to the left on Trading View and select the trend line tool. And this helps you mark out the high and the low of that first 15 minute candle. Now these are the only two levels that you need for this strategy. Like I said, it is stupid simple. But these key levels alone aren't very useful if we don't know which direction the market's likely to move in. Which brings us right to step number two. And in order to confirm the market's direction, we need to go to the five minute chart. You can do so by going on Trading View and clicking this five minute button after you click this. Each candle you look at represents five minutes of trading time. And we're going to wait for a displacement break of either the high or the low. Now when we're talking about displacement breaks, we don't mean just a candle wick like you see right here, or even a candle body closure through the low. We need a very specific type of pattern to, to occur through this level in order to constitute of a break. So I want to be clear, if we go back right here, a lot of traders will say, oh, there's our displacement break. And if you didn't know what displacement is, it's just an energetic push in the market. But we need a mechanical way to identify this displacement. That way we can filter out the losing trades. So wicks like this, or even a candle closure like this don't count as a break. What we're looking for is called a fair value gap. And fair value gaps are very simple. It's when we have an expansive candle that leaves a gap between the wicks of the candle before it and after it. As you see right here, this shaded blue zone is a fair value gap. And let me tell you, this is absolutely huge for keeping a high win rate, as you'll see later in the backtest of this strategy when we put it to the test. And since we broke through the high of the first 15 minute range, the direction is bullish and we've confirmed that. However, confirming that we're bullish doesn't really help us much if we can't execute trades. Which brings us right into step number three, finding our entry, our stop loss and our target. And guys, this is where I love this strategy because it is so simple and it removes all of the emotion out of executing. And that's exactly why it's going to help you become profitable fast. Now if we look right here on the left hand side of the screen, you can go on trading view and you can select a long position. As soon as the fair value gap prints on the 5 minute chart 3 through that first 15 minute range, we're actually good to put a limit order right on that fair value gap. And we're going to put our stop loss on fair value Gap candle 1. So if we take a look here at the fair value gap pattern, remember it is three candles. Now in order for the fair value gap to be valid, One of the three candles has to close outside of this 15 minute range. And when we enter the trade, we're just going to put a limit order, meaning that if the market dips down back into this zone right here, it could go all the way up here. As long as it dips down into that zone, we're going to get entered into the market and we want to put our stop loss at that low of candle number one. And that is where we'll cut our losses if we're wrong on the trade and for our target, we're just going to go for a fixed 2 to 1 risk to reward. This means that on our winning trades, we'll make twice as much as we would lose when we're wrong. Once you have your long Position tool on Trading View, you can right click it and then create a limit order. And this will get you in the market as soon as that level is tapped. Now if you don't trade on Trading View, that's fine. You can create a limit order for whatever price the fair value gap is at. So as you can see, we got tagged into the market and on this trade we have $1680 at risk to make $3375. Now at this time, you just sit back and let the market do the heavy lifting for you. And not overthinking, not micromanaging your trade or changing anything. You just let the market play its course. As you can see, this trade took less than two hours to play out and it made 30 $300 with just one contract. Not bad if you ask me. But just one winning trade doesn't really make a good strategy. And you're probably thinking there's no way that something this simple actually works. So let's put it to the test and look at the data that I gathered over historical trading of this strategy because your is about to be blown. Alright guys, real quick, go ahead and pause your screen and read this disclaimer in full before we go over the historical backtest. Now that we've got that out of the way, let's take a look at the numbers. As you can see, over the last month trading just one contract, this strategy netted $15,455 over a total of 16 trades. 81% of those 16 trades were winning trades. And the max drawdown, this strategy was 1635. And this makes the strategy perfect for trading prop firms. If you want 80 off of Apex, which is the top futures trading firm, I'll leave a link down in the description and you can use code Casper to get that discount. Congratulations. If you've made it this far, you now have everything you need to become a profitable trader fast. You've learned how to overcome the fatal mistakes that cause most traders to waste years in order to become successful. And you have a stupid, simple strategy that is proven to work. But chances are you, you've had these kinds of opportunities before and learned many good strategies, yet you're still not profitable. And I know this because I was in the exact same boat and it took me years to become profitable. And nine years later I realized that all of the big important lessons that I learned, I learned very early on. I just had to make a lot of mistakes to realize that. I mean, again, like I talked about earlier, here's me five years into my journey, still blowing accounts. And that is not what I want for you guys. Which is why I now mentor a small group of traders to help them avoid all the losses and wasted time that I had to go through. And it's why I make content. I always think of my younger self whenever I was learning how to trade and all of the struggles and obstacles that I had to overcome. And everything I do is from a perspective of how can I help the old me. And I want to be clear, this isn't some trading discord like you see on most of YouTube where you just join and you're in with a bunch of people and you pay a monthly subscription. That's not what I do at all. My traders get access to live trading 5 days per week in both the London and New York session, watching executions on a shared screen. That way they know exactly what to do and when to do it. And then every single trade that you take, whether it's in the sessions or outside of the sessions, is hand reviewed. You also get access to our proprietary software that is designed by quants and engineers to help you avoid blowing your account. And you learn everything that I've learned in nine years of trading condensed into a simple and actionable system. That way you can avoid the mistakes and pain that I had to go through and you get direct access to me 247 to ask me anything you need. And I'm so confident in this system that if you don't get funded in 12 weeks, I will personally trade with you until you get funded. Now, due to this being a direct and intensive mentorship, I cannot work with just anyone. And in order to ensure a high quality of service, we only take limited amounts of students in each enrollment and there is an application process. So if the link in the top of the description still works, then slots are available. If not, then this enrollment is closed and you'll have to wait for the next one. But guys, I want to be clear. Regardless if we work together or not, I am still rooting for you to win. I'm still going to be posting here on YouTube. I'm going to do everything I can to help you from afar. But for those of you who are really taking this serious and want to go to the next level much faster, then that is why I built a mentorship. By no means is it required. Again, I want to reiterate that you don't need the mentorship, it's just a fast track to help you avoid my mistakes. And you definitely can do it all on your own. If you want to. You just need to accept that it's going to be really hard. You're going to have to hold yourself accountable and it'll probably take you years. But that's okay, because in my opinion, trading is one of the best businesses on earth. So why not invest some time into making sure you master it? That way you have a lifelong skill that will free you for life. For those of you who have been watching the channel, thank you so much for your support as always. I love you guys. And if you're a new viewer, make sure to subscribe as I put out videos like this every single week. And I'll even leave a playlist on your screen that takes you from zero to hero and teaches you everything that you need to win at trading. All for free here on YouTube. Again, guys, I can't reiterate enough that you don't necessarily need the mentorship. It's just more of a hand holding, intimate, direct mentorship rather than me putting videos on YouTube where, you know, hundreds of thousands of people watch them. So again, I want to thank you guys for watching. Make sure to subscribe and I'll see you guys in the next video.











