4 Psychological Tricks That Won The Election

Four and a half years ago, I made a video predicting that long shot candidate Trump would beat Hillary Clinton to become president. I talked about how he had better slogans, better media strategy and better zingers. I am not making that same prediction this year because Trump's campaign savviness is nowhere near where it was in 2016. But in my opinion, the race is not as far apart as the polls show and the messaging in this final stretch could turn the tide. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen two more beatable candidates than I did in the first debate. Which is why in this video we are going to cover the persuas political strategy and dirty politics Trump could use to beat Biden. I also want to show how Biden could use the same to counter Trump and put him away. So don't worry, no matter who you support, there will be something to love and hate in this video. Before we begin, none of this analysis has to do with policy. Furthermore, these are the moves that I believe could win the election for each side. But it doesn't mean that doing whatever it takes to win is honest or that it's the right thing to do. Some of this is dirty politics. So let's start with Trump's position coming into the election. He is down in the polls, and between coronavirus, civil unrest and tax returns, there are a lot of attack vectors that he has to face. But he isn't the first incumbent president to have a difficult road to reelection. Back in 2004, George W. Bush was in just as bad a spot, if not worse. He was going up against John Kerry after leading the US Into Iraq under pretenses that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.

Saddam Hussein has gone to elaborate lengths, spent enormous sums, taken great risks to build and keep weapons of mass destruction.

But that turned out to be totally bogus. Just in time for his re election campaign.

The President didn't find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, so he's really turned his campaign into a weapon of mass deception.

So how did Bush win again despite plunging America into an unpopular war that since then has cost over $2 trillion? Well, he changed the frame of Kerry's attack. Instead of addressing Kerry's criticism that he misled the nation into war, Bush often framed Kerry's criticisms not as about the decision making, but about the American troops in combat.

And now there's 30 nations involved standing side by side with our American troops. And I honor their sacrifices and I don't appreciate it when a candidate for president denigrates the contributions of these brave, brave soldiers. You cannot lead the world if you do not honor the contributions of those who are with us as our troops fight a ruthless enemy.

He repeated this message, often determined to.

Destroy our way of life. They deserve to know that their elected leaders who voted to send them into war, continue to stand behind them.

And it worked. It was close, but Kerry was unable to effectively hold Bush accountable for his decision making. Instead, Bush made Kerry come across as wavering in his leadership of those troops. Now Trump has the opportunity to reframe incoming attacks in the similar manner. Instead of responding to the criticism of his leadership during the pandemic and the subsequent civil unrest, he can frame Biden's attacks as a critique of doctors or first responders or Fauci. I'll repeat again that this isn't the moral move, but in researching past elections, I can't deny that it has worked. Bush won. If Trump does this, or anyone in your life mischaracterizes your criticisms of them, a very effective technique to counter is to predict the dodge. Explain while you're giving the criticism that you expect the other person to dodge the issue in their response. When you call this out in advance, it makes the dodge much more obvious to the audience and tougher to pull off. Had Kerry done this, it would have greatly improved his odds of being president. And if Biden combines this with the strategy that he had in the first debate of speaking directly to the audience via the camera, it can make dodging criticisms much more difficult to do. But of course, this isn't the only reframe that made Bush win. And it's not the only thing that Trump could do. Which brings us to our second point. Trump has a huge opportunity to attack Biden as a political opportunist. The Bush camp frequently did. Take, for instance, this joke from Mitt Romney. With Bush by his side, he's been on both sides of most issues. He's been on both sides of what.

To do in Iraq.

He's been on both sides of how.

To deal with free trade, both sides of the gay marriage issue more recently, and he wondered whether he could pick someone with views different than his own.

He selected himself to do that. Biden, like Kerry before him, has a long public record that has him on both sides of many issues. And sometimes those positions changed following American culture rather than leading it.

Let's try to avoid nuance. Senator, do you support gay marriage? No. Barack Obama nor I support redefining from a. From a civil side what constitutes marriage. We do not support that. Men Marrying men, women marrying women, and heterosexual men and women marrying men, all are entitled to the same exact rights. All the civil rights, all the civil liberties. And quite frankly, I don't see much of a distinction beyond that.

Trump can hit Biden here with the same criticism that Bush had for Kerry, that his positions are held from political convenience and not of internal strength, and therefore nobody really knows what he thinks, only what he'll say to get elected.

Now, I can see why people think that he changes position quite often, because he does. You know, for a while, he was a strong supporter of getting rid of Saddam Hussein. He saw the wisdom until the Democratic primary came along and Howard Dean, the anti war candidate, began to gain on him and he changed positions.

Trump effectively used this frame to put away Lyin Ted, as he called ted Cruz in 2016. So how could Biden respond? First off, with almost any insult that isn't completely fabricated. You don't want to fight within the frame that has been dictated by your opponent. You don't say that you haven't changed your mind like Kerry did.

I've never changed my mind about Iraq. I do believe Saddam Hussein was a threat. I always believed he was a threat, believed it in 1998 when Clinton was president. I wanted to give Clinton the power to use force if necessary.

And you don't deny being a political insider like Hillary Clinton did in 2016?

I cannot imagine anyone being more of.

An outsider than the first woman president. I mean, really, let's think about that now. Senator Sanders is the only person who I think would characterize me, a woman running to be the first woman president, as exemplifying the establishment. Instead, you reject your opponent's frame. In this case, Biden could reject the frame that changing your mind in light of new data is a bad thing. He could reframe flip flopping to being mature enough to update his worldview in light of new evidence. And even if Biden responds like this, this is going to be a contentious point, which is why it's still a good angle for Trump. And that takes us to the third point in each candidate needs to dictate the core issue that this election rides on. And the core issue needs to be one that satisfies two goals. First, it automatically feels like you win because it's undeniably a strength. And second, it needs to galvanize undecided, uninspired voters. Candidates sometimes make the mistake of choosing a core issue simply because they're stronger than their opponent there. Neglecting that undecided voters and those who may or may not show up, are not emotionally connected to every issue. So both sides need to avoid what I call red herring attacks. These are attacks that feel like wins in a debate, but that don't win more votes. For instance, the electorate has already accepted that Biden does not appear as high energy or vibrant as Trump. So it's a waste of time for Trump to push the point. Similarly, the electorate expects Trump to do everything that he can to reduce his taxes. That's who we think he is. So it's a wasted attack. Lane for Joe Biden. Bush Jr. Understood this, and he focused on the one important issue that his personality conveyed more than Kerry's seeing steadfast firmness to keep America safe from terrorism.

All progress on every other issue depends on the safety of our citizens. The most solemn duty of the American President is to protect the American people. If our country shows any uncertainty or weakness in this decade, the world will drift toward tragedy. This is not going to happen on my watch.

And of course, with this framing, it led to Bush being the only reasonable choice.

I don't see how you can lead this country in a time of war, in a time of uncertainty. If you change your mind because of politics, be consistent. When you're the President, there's a lot of pressures and you gotta be firm.

So let's start with Trump. What is the core issue that can emotionally inspire the uncommitted electorate to vote for him? Now, this might be contentious, so let me know in the comments if you disagree. But my read is that it's what his recent executive order called the scapegoating of any race. His strongest position is to stand against critical race theory, ideology that teaches that white people, or any people are inherently racist or inherently contributing to the oppression of others. He can frame the issue not as a pushback against diversity, but against any ideology that treats skin color as a determinant of one's character, competence or culpability. I believe that he wins the election if he makes this the key issue and takes a strong stance. For Joe Biden's part, I believe that he really needs to avoid focusing on on several red herring attack lanes, taxes, accusations of fascism, the Affordable Care Act. These are unlikely to bring out any new votes or rile his base to get out on election Day. The issue for him needs to be something that hits the heart of America emotionally, much like Bush did with safety. And in Biden's case, that sole issue should be the year 2020. All he needs to do is ask Americans how 2020 has been for them under Trump's leadership. And funny enough, after I wrote this, he did so in the first debate. If Biden wants to ensure a victory, I believe he needs to spend more time here. And a particularly strong attack for him is around the word chaos. The angle, if I were advising him, is that Donald Trump is very good at ensuring that he personally thrives in the chaos that he creates. It's just that everyone around him doesn't. This will resonate given all the high profile firings and arrests that have been made in his inner circle. Now, before we get to our last point, I want to show how easily Biden can defuse one of Trump's red herring attacks. Just because this is an awesome moment in election history around Ronald Reagan. Reagan was the oldest candidate in the history of the US and he stumbled over some of his words, inviting speculation into cognitive decline. Does that sound familiar?

The system is still where it was with regard to the. With regard to the. The progressivity, as I've said.

So rather than trying to explain all this away, in the second debate, Reagan took a much stronger route. He joked it away like this.

I will not make age an issue of campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience.

That was it. Mondale has since said that he knew in that moment that Reagan had won. And keeping his characteristic sense of humor up, Reagan continued to joke about this throughout his presidency.

One of my favorite quotations about age comes from Thomas Jefferson. He said that we should never judge a president by his age, only by his work. And ever since he told me that, I've stopped worrying. Just show you how youthful I am. I intend to campaign in all 13 states.

Donald Trump used a similar tactic in 2016, completely defusing an early attack on his treatment of women. And you might remember this moment.

You've called women you don't like fat pigs, dogs, slobs and disgusting animals. Your Twitter account only Rosie o'. Donnell.

Just a reminder that literally responding to every attack isn't always the best political play. Nothing makes people move along like a joke that can get them to burst out in laughter. The same is true in your life. But we have other videos for that that I can link to at the end if you're interested to learn more. But the last point here for both Trump and Biden, they both need to speak in sensory language. That's because words that create images, sounds and feelings in people's minds are much more likely to move them emotionally. So the candidates must ensure that people have sensory images in their head, both in their criticisms of the opponent and in their vision for the future. A key component to get an image in someone's head is specificity. Compare John Kerry here, talking in abstractions.

That was the objective. And if we'd used smart diplomacy, we could have saved $200 billion and an invasion of Iraq. And right now, Osama bin Laden might be in jail or dead. That's the war against terror.

To Barack Obama, who, funny enough, was campaigning on Kerry's behalf at the time. But much more effectively, workers I met.

In Galesburg, Illinois, who are losing their.

Union jobs at the Maytag plant that's.

Moving to Mexico and now are having to compete with their own children for.

Jobs that pay seven bucks an hour. So Trump needs to paint a picture of a prosperous 2021 under his leadership. Images of Americans healthier and happier than they've ever been, smiling and surprised at the performance of their pension funds, racing, rebounding from a difficult year. Now, we saw a bit of this in the first debate, but he will need more. Joe Biden needs to paint a similar prosperous vision of 2021 under his leadership. But I believe even more important is that he described the suffering in 2020. He asked a few questions that conjured visuals in the first debate. But the more he does of this, the more he makes Trump feel like the worst choice. The following example is not nearly broad enough. So Biden needs to paint a picture for the people who don't know someone personally who has died, but who still have suffered in their mental or economic health.

You folks at home, how many of you got up this morning and had an empty chair at the kitchen table because someone died of COVID How many of you were in a situation where you lost your mom or dad and you couldn't even speak to them? You had a nurse holding a phone up so you could in fact say goodbye. His own CDC director says we could lose as many as another 200,000 people between now and the end of the year. And he held up. He said, if we just wear a mask, we can save half those numbers. Just a mask.

So now for the moment of truth. The prediction. Four years ago, when Trump had just won, I bet my brother that he would for sure be a two term president. I wasn't even sure who the Democratic candidate would be. I just couldn't imagine anyone beating Trump's media genius. And if you're not sure what I'm talking about, definitely watch the videos that I made on him because his approach is fascinating and far deeper than most people give him credit for. But this year I have been very surprised at how Trump has bungled campaign opportunities that I think he would have knocked out of the park in 2016. So while I think that both Trump and Biden could still lock it up with the strategy that I laid out in this video, my guess is that Biden will win simply because neither candidate is killing it charismatically, and it's been a rough year for most Americans. If my thoughts change prior to Election Day, I'll update you, but that is my guess for now. One thing that you might not know is that I've actually been talking about politics as well as charisma and philosophy for a while on our podcast channel. And if you feel like you learn new things here on Charisma on Command, you will probably really like the podcast. We chat about how to be a happier, wiser and more thoughtful person, and the comments and reviews that we're getting are even more enthusiastic than the ones that I see here. And I'm genuinely touched by how many people say that it is their new favorite podcast. I'm going to link you to a recent episode that people said was one of our best, just so you can get a taste. You can click here to check it out. Also, a reminder for those of you who didn't see our R rated OnlyFans video, Ben and I will be personally matching donations to Charity Water through the link in the description. It's a birthday campaign and if you want to help someone who doesn't have clean drinking water and have your contribution go twice as far, I'll be matching donations. Take a look at that link. We've raised water for 3,400 people and I really appreciate all of you who have donated for that. Thank you so, so much. Either way, I hope that you've enjoyed this video and I will see you in the next.