Morning News NOW Full Episode – March 2

Breaking right now on Morning News Now, escalation across the Mideast on day 3 of the war against Iran. New video this morning of one of 3 American warplanes going down in Kuwait in what officials are now calling an incident of friendly fire. All crew members survived. Also today, Israel launching a new campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon's capital city. All this after this weekend's joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed killed hundreds of people, including the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Now Iran retaliating with its own series of attacks on Israel, as well as several other targets across the Middle East that killed at least 3 American troops. Now President Trump back in Washington after warning that more casualties could come.

We pray for the full recovery of the wounded and send our immense love and eternal gratitude to the families of the fallen. And sadly, there will likely be more.

Meanwhile, across the U.S., a mix of celebration and protest over the attacks.

All the diaspora of Iranians are chanting and excited because we see freedom at hand.

We are ready for a new government, regime change in Iran.

The vast majority of Americans do not want yet another endless war in the Middle East. It's disgusting that we do not have our basic needs met, but we have enough money supposedly to bomb people across the world.

We have a lot to get to on this Monday morning. Thank you very much for joining us. I'm happy to be back with you. I'm Savannah Sellers.

It is good to have you back on a busy Monday. I'm Joe Fryer. Let's get right to it. We have a team of correspondents and analysts standing by to break down the very latest from the Middle East to Washington. Let's begin with NBC News chief international correspondent Keir Simmons, who is in Dubai with the latest. Keir, good morning. We know over the weekend the U.S. and Israel hit thousands of targets in Iran after killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Bring us up to speed on just how this joint campaign has progressed since the first strikes were launched more than 48 hours ago.

Well, I think the crucial news this morning, of course, is the downing of those U.S. fighter jets in Kuwait. Let me just take you through that, because that, of course, is what folks will be worrying about. Back home the most. Now, the US military now saying that friendly fire took down those 3 F-15 fighter jets over Kuwait. I just want to read you some of what CENTCOM says in its statement in the past few hours. During active combat that included attacks from Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and drones, the US Air Force fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses. All 6 aircrew ejected safely, having been safely recovered and are in a stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident. So the latest fatalities for the, the US military in what President Trump, as you played there at the top, said would be a difficult operation that might be deadly for US forces. Meanwhile, as you mentioned, we are here in Dubai where we have had a weekend of really relentless attacks by missiles and drones. At one point, that building you can see behind me there is the Burj Khalifa. It is the tallest building in the world. At one point, a drone flew right by it. There have been explosions at the airport here in Dubai and in Abu Dhabi and at the airport in Kuwait. The Iranians accused of choosing not just air bases across this region being used by US forces as well as by Gulf forces, but also being accused of targeting civilian targets. Now, much of these munitions have been shot down today. It is much quieter here except for the sound of fighter jets overhead. The air defenses here in the United Arab Emirates have worked, frankly, stunningly well. I would estimate around 1% of the drones and missiles got through. But what the Iranians here are trying to do is to target the economy and to frighten regional governments, its neighbors, into going to Washington and demanding an end to the war. But really, the other issue, Joe, is the way that this is all escalating, spiraling even. So there is now contact between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in in Lebanon. That appears to be a new front that is opening up. We're just getting news of a tanker targeted off Oman, the Strait of Hormuz, not far from here, which we, you know, Joe, through the weekend, haven't we have talked about, is a crucial choke point for commercial shipping and particularly oil and gas. 20% of the world's oil and gas passing through there. That is effectively closed. I did manage to speak to a former Iranian commander in Tehran with close connections to the government. He, when I spoke to him, denied that the Iranians are targeting civilian places in this region. But, but, but it is, though, leaving governments here furious. And that seems to be backfiring on Iran, turning local governments that might have had some sympathy for the Iranians against them.

Here we know. And thank you for the latest on these US planes that were downed. Again, as you mentioned, it seems by friendly fire. Fire. We know no casualties there, though there have been a few U.S. casualties up to this point. In a video posted to Truth Social yesterday, President Trump shared a message about that. Let's listen.

Earlier today, CENTCOM shared the news that 3 U.S. military service members have been killed in action. Sadly, there will likely be more before it ends. That's the way it is. Likely be more, but we'll do everything possible where that won't be the case.

Okay.

What do we know at this time about the U.S. service members that have been killed or injured so far in this conflict?

Well, honestly, just a limited amount. It did happen in Kuwait. They were stationed in Kuwait. The president in that statement, the government, the Trump administration being clear, and this is this is always the thoughtful way that these things are handled, that they need to speak to the servicemen and women's families, servicemen and women's families. So we wait to get more news on, on those fatalities. But again, it does speak to what a high-risk operation this was to launch by President Trump. And I think we will Look, there are days of this, maybe even weeks of this ahead. And inevitably, once a war begins, both sides lose a little bit of control, some control over exactly how events play out.

Here we've been talking about the fact you mentioned the explosions there in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and nations throughout the region that go beyond the military bases there. And a lot of people have been perplexed by Iran's strategy in doing so. Does there appear to be a clear strategy for Iran at this point? Is it backfiring?

Well, look, I mean, I think there is a strategy. I would describe the Iranian strategy like this: cause chaos. Then, as I mentioned earlier, Joe, try to put pressure on regional governments that have relationships with Washington to go to Washington and say, you've got to stop this. We can't take this. But I think there is also another aspect to this. And again, when I spoke to a former IRGC commander in Tehran this morning, I raised this with him and he quite straightforwardly told me that there are IRGC units, there are Islamic Republican Guard Corps units in Iran that may well be operating without communication to the leadership, just following tasks that they will have been given, assigned prior to, to this war beginning, and that they would have been told to take action even if they are not given instructions from Tehran. And that, I think, is one of the issues here. The way that this could escalate is that you have a whole number of pieces all shifting all at the same time. That is the nature of war. And that is why launching a war is is inevitably such high risk. Now, look, again, we do not know. In the weeks ahead, we may come to conclude that President Trump brought about regime change in Iran. The people, people may begin to rise up. There may be an outcome to this that historians will say was beneficial for the Iranian people. But there is also, just conversely, at its most dire, if you like, the risk that the country collapses, that the different ethnic groups in Iran turn on each other. And that would be problematic, to say the least, for this region. I mean, Iran is just a short distance across the sea from where I am. So, you know, this is— we could speak, we could talk for most of your show about the ways that this could go. We simply cannot say. And that is, that is the risk that President Trump has taken.

And we will continue to talk through the rest of these hours here this morning. Kir, you and your family, please continue to stay safe. We appreciate your reporting.

Well, for more on Iran's retaliation against Israel specifically, let's bring in NBC News— excuse me, international correspondent Matt Bradley. He is in Tel Aviv. Matt, good morning. I want to start with Lebanon. Things have escalated overnight and we also have a recent update here. So Hezbollah That is, this militant Iranian proxy group in Lebanon has been launching missiles at Israel in what it says is retaliation for the Supreme Leader's killing. In response, the Israeli military has launched an offensive that it says is likely to last for, quote, several days. Just a few moments ago, though, we do have an update from the Lebanese prime minister announcing a ban on all of these activities from Hezbollah, calling them illegal. Tell us the latest on the ground and also if you think a call like that from the Lebanese Prime Minister could quell this particular violence in any way?

Yeah, these are all great questions and exactly the questions that everybody in the region is asking right now. Is this a new front in this ever-expanding conflict? As Kira was mentioning, this has long since been spilling over borders. We're seeing things going on in Iraq, lots of political unrest there, attacks throughout the Gulf, and now Lebanon. Now, this border had been quiet, at least from the Hezbollah side, for the better part of the past year and a half, ever since the Biden administration helped to negotiate an agreement between Hezbollah and Israel that largely calmed the fighting. The Israelis have been launching strikes into Lebanon and Hezbollah targets almost every single day since then for the past year and a half. Hezbollah has not fired at Israel during that time, but now They've said that they want to essentially avenge the death of Ali Khamenei, the ayatollah, the supreme leader of Iran, and a man who had been one of Hezbollah's greatest patrons, really the greatest patron of Hezbollah. Hezbollah was built by Iran back in the 1980s. So this is a group that owes so much to the Iranians. And it's why a lot of people here are wondering whether or not these attacks by Hezbollah into northern Israel were maybe just sort of a gun salute or they sort of a tribute. And that's more or less what Hezbollah had been saying, which calls into question whether or not this is going to be a sustained attack. Nevertheless, we heard from the Israelis today in comments that were from, you know, basically the spokesperson that I was speaking to all the way up to senior officials saying that they are getting ready to attack if necessary. They say they've launched an offensive, but so far, according to Lebanese health officials, say, has killed 31 people in Lebanon and nearly 150 others were injured. So this is a conflict that could get a whole lot worse before it gets better. It really depends on what Hezbollah wants to do here. Hezbollah has been badly beaten down by the Israelis over years of war, particularly since October 7th. Now, it doesn't seem like they're going to be able to reconstitute their forces. At the same time, the Israelis are saying that they are not taking any precautions. They constantly reiterate that they have learned their lessons from October 7th and they're not going to let Hezbollah sit on their border.

Now, let's talk more about what you are seeing there in Israel. We know yesterday an Iranian missile evaded Israel's strong defense systems, killing several people in a residential neighborhood just outside of Jerusalem. You were on the scene of one of these incidents. What more can you tell us about that deadly attack and just overall what life has been like there in Israel over these past 3 days.

Yeah, this was a really tragic thing to witness. I mean, we saw what looked like bombed-out cars, destroyed buildings, as you're seeing on your screen right now. This was a really tragic scene striking a community that is a pretty tight-knit, very conservative religious community here in Israel. A lot of these folks didn't necessarily have access to safe rooms, bomb shelters inside their homes. So they all went into public bomb shelters. And in this case, this was a bomb shelter that was underground, underneath a synagogue. And it took, according to police, a direct hit. Now, this is going to be very disturbing to Israelis, not just because this is the highest casualty count that we've seen so far in this conflict from Iranian attacks on Israel, But also because of the people who were inside this safe room, this mamad, as it's called in Hebrew. So many Israelis are relying on these bomb shelters to keep them safe as these Iranian attacks appear relentless. These people were killed inside of one, which is rare. And police have said these shelters aren't built to take a direct hit.

All right, Matt Bradley, thank you very much for reporting there from Israel for us.

As President Trump said in that recorded message last night, U.S. strikes will continue in Iran this week. Week. Let's bring in NBC News military analyst Colonel Steve Warren for more on what to expect in these coming days. Colonel, good to have you with us. Just based on your experience, what do you imagine is happening behind the scenes at U.S. Central Command as this war stretches into day 3, especially after we've learned this morning about those 3 U.S. aircraft accidentally shot down by Kuwait? What was your reaction upon hearing that? Is that the type of thing, these friendly fire incidents, we could expect to see more of as this conflict moves forward?

I think it's the type of thing that we will see less of as the conflict moves forward. And here's why. In the early days of any operation, whether it's combat operations or even training operations, risk is always a little bit higher.

Why?

It's because everyone involved in the operation is settling in and trying to understand what the different pieces are, understanding how the units subordinate units to the flanks, partner and coalition units, in this case the Kuwaitis, how they operate, what frequencies do they use on the radio, etc., etc. So, and we've seen this in other conflicts as well, the friendly fire incidents often are a little bit higher in the early days before everyone sort of works out what their roles are. In Central Command in Tampa and in their overseas headquarters right now, I think they are probably primarily focused on servicing targets. So we have from the president sort of the objective list, right? Destroy the Iranian missile capability, destroy the Iranian missile production capability, sink the Iranian navy, etc. So they are now looking at every target that they have so far struck, or in the military we often say serviced, looking at all the targets that they've serviced. Assessing the damage that's been done to those targets, determining whether or not those targets need to be reattacked or determining if they can move on to the next target on the list.

Colonel, I think also, of course, a bigger picture objective here, right, is regime change. Something that was so notable in the first video that we saw from the president over this weekend was essentially calling on the Iranian people almost to like pick it up from here, rise up, against this government. Is it possible, do you think, for regime change to take place through this Operation Epic Fury with airstrikes alone and a hope that something happens on the ground without U.S. boots on the ground in Iran?

Well, regime change cannot happen with just airstrikes. So something has to happen in order to cause the regime to change. In that case, it would— can only be two things: boots on the ground, as you described, or an uprising inside of Iran. So the real question is, will these strikes generate enough energy for the Iranians to rise up and overthrow their country? I have not seen any evidence that the United States is preparing to put significant ground forces into play here. In other words, if we were going to invade Iran, it would take weeks, if not months, for us to— and I'll use again a military term— generate combat power. What does that mean? That means stationing offensive troops on the ground nearby in a place where they could invade. And to be clear, to invade a nation the size of Iran and essentially take it over, you're talking hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of troops. So this would be a major mobilization. We've seen no evidence of that happening. So I don't believe that we are planning to, to commit significant troop numbers on the ground. Now, there could easily be a situation where we use very precise special operations forces to conduct specific missions on the ground. But I think that's, that's all we're going to see.

Colonel, let's talk about Iran's response here. It has conducted these retaliatory strikes of its own, hitting Israel and other Arab states. With rounds of ballistic missiles and drones and not just U.S. military bases. What do you make of the counteroffensive so far? Does it seem like Iran has the firepower to sustain this for weeks if necessary?

Right.

So that's the other thing that I believe is happening in U.S. Central Command right now. Presumably, they have a list. They know exactly how many launchers the Iranians have, probably have an idea of how many actual ballistic missiles the Iranians have and have a sense for how many of these Shahed drones the Iranians have. And every— with every airstrike, there is someone in central command checking off, okay, there's one less launcher, one less launcher. So we don't know exactly how large the Iranian missile stockpiles and the Shahed drone stockpiles are, but we know they're dwindling rapidly and they're dwindling for two reasons. One, because the Iranians are expending them. And two, because the US and Israeli forces are striking them. So these munitions are being reduced very rapidly. That said, the Shaheed drones, which have been somewhat effective in the last 48 to 72 hours, they are relatively cheap and easy to make. So I think the Iranians will be able to sustain this for some time. But again, we are continuing to degrade those capabilities.

Colonel Warren, always appreciate your expertise. Thanks for joining us this morning.

Let's turn now to Washington and check in with NBC News senior White House correspondent Garrett Haake and also our political reporter Megan Liebowitz. Good morning to both of you. Garrett, I will start start with you to talk through the timing here from the president's perspective, how he made this decision. I know we have some NBC News reporting on, on just how these talks were going between the U.S. and Iran that we had heard at one point were potentially making progress. And then you fast forward to Saturday and we know what has unfolded since then. Walk us through what we know about those talks, this potential deal that we had heard from the minister of Iran may have been in reach. Obviously it was not. What was the determination here for the president?

Yeah, Savannah, the way senior administration officials describe it, this deal was actually quite a long way off. They briefed reporters on Saturday and said that essentially Iran was unwilling to accept even an offer from the United States to provide unlimited free fuel for a purely civilian nuclear program in perpetuity, and that the Iranians were unwilling to discuss their ballistic their ballistic missile program entirely. The officials involved in those talks ultimately felt like Iran just wasn't serious about striking a deal. So that was kind of the big picture lead-up to where we were. And then in terms of the proximate cause of these strikes, the administration has really said two things. First, they've said that there was some kind of imminent threat from the Iranian ballistic missile program. That has not been backed up by any evidence presented publicly. And then what we've also heard from sources familiar with the administration's thinking here was that they saw this opportunity to strike on Saturday during the day, which is very unusual, to kill not just the Ayatollah, but a number of his top deputies, essentially take out the whole top leadership tier of the Iranian regime. So that's been the sort of picture of how we got to this moment that the administration has painted thus far. Well, they're doing it kind of in bits and pieces, not with the traditional, you know, White House speech by the president, although we may get some more of these answers from this Pentagon briefing later today.

And Garrett, and I think a lot of people found that a little strange that we haven't had this sort of traditional address to the nation, sort of laying out the case for why this is happening. We've had those videos posted on Truth Social, a lot of just short phone calls with reporters throughout Washington. So that's kind of where we're getting information from the president. What is it he's saying, first of all, about these casualties that we've been mentioning throughout this hour and just in general, how long he thinks this whole military operation is going to last.

It is so unusual, Joe. And I feel like you and I talked about this late last week, the idea that the president had not been making the case to the American public about why strikes might be necessary if he ultimately had to order them, as he's now done so. He's told reporters that he thinks this process could last 4 to 5 weeks potentially. But he's also described it as ahead of schedule. And frankly, given the kind of changing answers he's given about what exactly the end goal is here, I think a timeline is hard to nail down. On casualties, the president had said in his first Truth Social video on Saturday that he thought there might be some. And in a conversation with our colleague Peter Nicholas yesterday, that he accepted that casualties would happen in an operation like this and that he thinks they could continue. He also said essentially that this operation, he hopes, will be great for the world at the end of the day, suggesting that sacrifices made by Americans would ultimately be worth it. Joe.

Megan, let's bring you in here. Democrats argue the president should have consulted Congress before attacking Iran. Tell us more about their reaction here and what that means. We could see this week a potential vote to restrict the president's war powers.

Yeah, that's right. So Democrats and even some Republicans as well have been criticizing the president and the administration for not going to Congress first to get congressional approval before taking part in this operation, we're also hearing from critics in Congress who are raising questions about what comes next in Iran. Is the U.S. actually safer now that this attack has unfolded? And what are the administration's plans for actually achieving the objectives that the president has laid out? I want you to take a listen to what some Democrats in Congress had to say over the weekend.

My sense is that they did not go into this with any kind of strategic plan. It was an operation with no, no discussion about what comes next.

Khomeini was a brutal dictator, but Americans are not safer today.

So the question is, is the country going to descend into civil war?

Are billions of our dollars going to be spent there? Are American troops going to be at risk?

So now Democrats and some Republicans are pushing for a war powers vote this week, which, if passed, would basically mean that the president— it would restrict the president's ability for future military operations in Iran without going to Congress first. Now, a big caveat here is Congress has tried this before. They've tried to pass war powers resolutions related to, to restrict the president's ability to use the military without getting congressional approval first for Venezuela, for the Caribbean, and even in Iran last year after those previous US airstrikes against nuclear facilities in Iran. Now, those votes all failed. So we're going to expect to hear more about this this week. We don't have exact timing for when this vote could potentially happen.

Megan, no surprise we'd have questions from Democrats, but there are questions about the Republican reaction. We know on the campaign trail, President Trump said no more foreign wars or regime changes. This was part of his America First agenda. So are there Republicans, especially in his MAGA base, who are supporting the president's actions even though this goes against that campaign promise?

Yes. So I will say that most Republicans in Congress have been backing the president's decision to take part in these operations. They've been arguing that the U.S. is safer with these operations taking place and defending the president's authority for actually engaging in these operations without going to Congress first. Senator Lindsey Graham has been one of the most vocal advocates for these strikes and one of the most vocal supporters of the president's decision to do this. Take a listen to what he had to say yesterday on Meet the Press.

The mothership of terrorism is sinking. The captain is dead. Well done, President Trump. It's been the policy of this country for decades. To eliminate this regime. President Trump did it.

There is a contingent of Republicans, though, as you mentioned, who said, hey, wait a minute, the president promised no more foreign wars. The president said America first. And in their view, this is contradicting that. So I do want to point you to a post from former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who said— pointed to the president's campaign promises and said, it's always a lie and it's always America last. So senators are going to be back in D.C. today and they're going to get— lawmakers are going to get classified briefings tomorrow. So we're expecting to hear more reaction as this continues to unfold.

Megan and Garrett, thank you both very much.

The death of Ayatollah Khamenei has many asking who will be the next leader in Iran. For more, let's bring in Alex Vitanca. He's a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. Alex, good to have you with us. We know Iranian state media says that President Mahmoud Rashid Pashkian survived the attacks over the weekend. He was elected just a couple of years ago, had previously vowed to try and renew these discussions with the U.S. to end the sanctions there, to reach some sort of agreement. Right now, does it seem like he is the at least temporary head of the Iranian state? Joe, good to be with you.

Look, in terms of his formal role right now, he remains the president. He has now joined two other men in what they call an interim council. Supposed to run the place, if you will, until the country is in a situation where they can choose the next supreme leader, if you will. But here's an opportunity for President Rouhani to actually stand up and maybe speak a different language. He came on— essentially, the Iranians voted for him because he promised massive change. He has not delivered in a year and a half he's been there. Is this an opportunity for him now, with the old man dead, to sort of stand out and say, you know, the whole country wants change if it means is speaking to Trump even as Trump is dropping bombs on us, maybe that's not a bad thing. But I don't think he's going to do that anytime soon. I think what I'm getting out of Iran is for now they're just hunkering down. The military aspect of what they're doing seems to be the focus for them right now.

Alex, in a recent article, you also mentioned how Iran's opposition movement— it's wide, it's large, it's also divided. I mean, you said it's divided by geography, generation, ideology and exposure to repression with no clear leader in that movement. Who has the best chance of coming to power in the event of a popular revolution?

So, look, I think the key here, and we heard it just in the segment before, is does the United States right now have a roadmap in terms of a strategy on the ground to help? Because the president's— I mean, the clearest thing I get from President Trump now in terms of what the end objective is no longer about the nuclear issue or the missiles, frankly. It's about something bigger. It's about regime change in that nation state. And that to me suggests you need to have something in terms of a game plan on the ground. I haven't seen that yet from the administration. But if they want to go in that direction, the first thing they need to do is to help the Iranian opposition outside of the country to organize. And they need to start looking for people inside the country to essentially defect.

It could be people like—

is that good enough for many? Because they will consider him as part of the old regime. He won't be acceptable to many. But then what about lower ranks inside the regime? Because somebody has to be there to take over with this country of 92 million, the size of Alaska or 3 times the size of France. If it collapses, it's in nobody's interest. So the United States needs to start thinking along the lines that if this is not weeks and months to come, there needs to be much more investment on the political front to start helping, thinking about the day after once the military side has been achieved, what comes politically.

Is there your sense there is someone or some group that the U.S. could identify to work with that would be capable of leading that opposition? And what more specifically would you need to see America do to try and help make that happen? Does it need to be more than, than bombs?

So, Joe, the one thing I would point out right now is the president has made it very clear he wants the Iranian people who, by and large, I would say 90% of them hated Ayatollah Khamenei and hate this regime. But the sort of banking on them to command the the streets in the middle of a war, that's a risky strategy. People are going to put their lives first. So I don't think that's something we can expect, people taking over the state machinery. They might come out in the streets, but for them to take over, that's a different story. Which means what could the opposition look like? Look, there are folks in the opposition outside the US can work with, Crown Prince Zafar Nabi and others who have been in this business, have been in opposition for a long time, but very critical for them quickly link up to folks inside of Iran. I think that's the key here. The idea that the opposition is going to fly in from Washington to Tehran, it's, it's kind of a hope. It needs to be much more elaborate and you need to have a game plan for that sort of thing to essentially happen.

Alex Vytanka, good to have you with us this morning. Thank you so much. Our coverage of the war in Iran continues here on Morning News. Now, later this hour, a look at the impacts that this is happening on the world's oil supply and gas prices here at home.

Up first, though, after the break, tragedy in Texas. What we are learning about a deadly mass shooting at a bar in downtown Austin. That's next. We'll be right back. We are back with another developing story, this one here at home. The FBI is helping local police in Texas with an investigation into a deadly shooting at a bar in downtown Austin over the weekend. Oh God, that was the moment shots rang out early yesterday morning, caught on video by a witness. 2 people were killed in the shooting and 14 others were injured.

The suspect has been identified as a 53-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen from Senegal. He was shot and killed by police on the scene. Now federal officials say they are investigating the incident as a possible act of terrorism.

NBC News correspondent Priscilla Thompson is in Austin and joins us with the latest. Priscilla, good morning. What do we know at this point about how this shooting unfolded and where the investigation stands right now?

Yeah, Savannah, Joe, good morning. That shooting happened early Sunday morning at this bar just minutes before closing. Witnesses describe hearing people screaming and seeing people running as that barrage of bullets rang out. According to police, the suspect circled the block of this bar several times in his SUV, at one point putting his flashers on, rolling down a window, and he began shooting with a pistol onto the patio. This is an open-air beer garden in this very popular downtown entertainment district here in Austin, and we know that Police say the suspect then got out of the vehicle with a rifle and continued shooting. Now, police do say that because this is such that popular nightlife area, they were able to respond in less than a minute and take down that shooter. They said that that undoubtedly saved lives. As this morning, we are also learning about those victims, with one of them being identified by his family as 19-year-old Ryder Harrington. His brother writing on Facebook, quote, quote, watching the man he had become and seeing all the lives he touched leaves me certain that this world was robbed of a great future.

So important to keep those victims in mind as we cover this story. Priscilla, I do want to mention investigators as they try to figure out the motive, whether this was an act of terrorism. We have sources telling us the suspect had no state ties, but what are we learning about the suspect so far that would even lead them to consider the possibility that this might be an act of terror.

Yeah, so investigators saying they do believe he was a lone actor, but a couple of the things that we know according to multiple law enforcement officials is that he had on a sweatshirt that read "Property of Allah" and that underneath that sweatshirt he had a shirt on that had an Iranian flag theme. Now we know that this suspected shooter is a 53-year-old man from Senegal. He'd been a naturalized citizen in the United States for more than a decade. And we saw yesterday investigators and SWAT teams at his home in Pflugerville, not far from here, appearing to search that home. We also understand that they have been speaking with family members. Now, they are saying it is too early in this investigation to say for sure what the motive is, but that one of the things that they are looking at is possible ties to a nexus of terrorism.

Priscilla, tell us about how the community is doing doing and what it's like there on the ground right now. Any, any heightened security steps being taken?

Yeah, a lot of heartbreak in this community right now. Yesterday we saw people returning to try to retrieve things from their cars. One woman was just in tears and she told me that she could still hear the gunshots. She was among those who was here on that night. Now the governor did release a statement saying that he has activated additional Department of Public Safety patrols and an increased law enforcement presence in this area. We also know, as this bar was popular with college students, that the University of Texas has also said they're heightening their security and also offering counseling services for students there.

All right, Priscilla Thompson, thank you very much.

Let's bring in now NBC News law enforcement analyst Jim Cavanaugh. Jim, it's good to have you with us. So what are investigators going to focus on here as they try to figure out a motive, whether this was an act of terrorism? We should note Sources familiar with the investigation also tell NBC News they believe the suspect did have a history of mental illness. Obviously, all that's going to be looked at here, right?

That's right, Joe. And often those things go hand in hand. You know, I think we've got to look at this on its face first. You don't want to deny the obvious. This guy, within hours of the attack on Iran, is wearing an Iranian flag. I think that's the most telling thing. Of course, he's trying to co-opt Islam by wearing a shirt It's his property of Allah, but he's responding to the attack in Iran. I think it's pretty obvious right there on its face. And when you're an investigator, you know, you can't deny the obvious. You have to look at the obvious and the proximity in time to the war in Iran. It's like saying Iran is not a war. It is a war. We just killed 48 of their top leaders, their president. We've bombed and destroyed their navy and their air force and their nuclear capabilities. That's war. You can try to say it's not, but it is. And it's the same here. This guy is going to be a person acting on terrorism. And just like you said, Joe, he probably had psychotic episodes before, but that's not uncommon with attackers like this. So I think it's all going to fall right in there. And I think we're going to have to be on guard for more domestic attacks like that and even bombings at airlines. So it's a very fraught time. When we're in a war footing.

Jim, local police said they had officers on scene within 1 minute of receiving the first call for help. How critical is response time in a situation like this?

Well, it's absolutely, Savannah, critical. I mean, it's absolutely critical. Great job by Austin PD. Wish they could have saved those other 2 victims, but they probably saved a lot of people. This, uh, killer drove down the street in the car back and forth behind the tavern shooting a pistol out the window. Then he stopped and he got out with an assault rifle. And if those Austin police officers hadn't stopped him, he might have gone in there and slaughtered 20, 30, 40 people, you know, with an assault rifle. So this could have been a real bloodbath. So the fact that Austin PD was there and stopped him, you know, we still had 2 dead and 14 wounded. And those can be some serious, serious life-changing wounds. So we got to remember the wounded as well. But they did— Austin PD just did a great job.

All right, Jim Cavanaugh, appreciate your expertise as always. Thank you for joining us this morning.

Coming up, continuing coverage on the war in Iran. Our Richard Engel joins us next. Morning News Now, we'll be right back.

We're back with our top story, the conflict in the Middle East spreading this morning after the United States and Israel launched major, major strikes against Iran over the weekend that killed the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The attacks are sparking retaliation from Iran, which has targeted U.S. bases across the region and Israel itself. CENTCOM says that a fourth U.S. service member has been killed as a result of these airstrikes. That's news we're just getting. While separately in Kuwait, three American jets went down in what the Pentagon says was a case of friendly fire.

NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel joins us now from Jerusalem. Richard, let's start with what we're learning about the about this incident with the F-15s in Kuwait, as well as the U.S. casualties that have been reported, including now we're learning of a fourth one who basically succumbed to injuries from these initial strikes earlier this weekend.

So, uh, good to talk to you. I'm not in Jerusalem right now. I'm outside of Jerusalem in an Israeli town called Beit Shemesh, and you can see behind me all of this damage. This is from a single Iranian ballistic missile that hit this residential area. Local officials here say at least 9 people were killed. And we are learning more about these two incidents in Kuwait. First, the aircraft that went down. According to CENTCOM, U.S. Central Command, three American jets crashed after they were accidentally fired on by Kuwaiti air defense systems. The Pentagon put out a statement saying that this happened during active combat operations against Iran and that the crew members survived and are safe. Now, in this other incident, there was a separate Iranian attack also on a base in Kuwait in which initially there were at least 3 Americans killed. Now that death toll has just been raised to 4 Americans service members who died in that attack. And we knew previously that at least 5 had been seriously wounded. So as far as our reporting, as we can tell, there are at least still 4 others seriously wounded from that attack in Kuwait.

Richard, the broader death toll of these attacks also continues to rise. Iran's Red Crescent says more than 550 people have been killed in Iran. Among the worst scenes was a strike on a girls' at a school. Iran is blaming that on the U.S. and Israel. What can you tell us about that incident and what you are seeing where you are in Israel?

So here in Israel, there have been a few deadly incidents. This one, it was the single deadliest strike by Iran against Israel. There was another lethal attack in Tel Aviv when an apartment building was hit by a ballistic missile. But in Iran, they are talking about hundreds dead as Israel and the United States have been carrying out attacks attacks all across the country, in Tehran. Tehran is a city— just the central part of Tehran has a population of more than 10 million people. There, they do not have the kind of air defenses that this country has. Just, just the opposite. Israel's— Israel and the United States have been destroying Iran's air defense systems. The Israeli defense minister just announcing yesterday that Israel has now achieved air superiority and that its fighter jets can remain over Iran effectively unthreatened, carrying out strikes at will. The deadliest incident in Iran so far, according to Iranian officials, was on a girls' school outside of Tehran in a remote province in southern Iran. And they are talking about more than 100 students, 100 girls killed in that single attack. There are other reports that say 150 girls were killed in that attack. We've not been able to independently verify that number, but there has been confirmation that the attack took place. And the U.S. military says that it is looking into those reports.

Richard, beyond Israel, beyond Iran, this conflict is spreading rapidly. Israel now bombing Lebanon again. And we're just seeing these strikes from Iran on countries throughout the region. Talk about the impact this is having on the entire region and what this is going to mean moving forward in the days and weeks ahead.

We are now in a regional war. There seems to be some reluctance by, by people to call it that. This is a regional war. It became a regional war immediately as soon as the United States and Israel launched those preemptive strikes. That's how they were described against Iran. Iran retaliated against Israel, against U.S. bases in the region, and against Arab countries. There have been now more than, more than 9 countries that have been sucked into this conflict. Lebanon, the latest country to enter into the war, that happened just last night. Lebanon had been staying out of it while Iran carried out attacks against mostly American allies, countries that host American bases such as Kuwait and Bahrain. Bahrain, the home of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. Kuwait, we just talked about the big American bases there that were actively involved in this combat. But there have also been strikes against Oman. Oman was trying to mediate a peaceful resolution between Iran and the United States. There have been strikes against Qatar, Now, Qatar has American bases, but it was also acting as a peace mediator. So this is clearly now a regional war. And there are several reasons for that. One, President— the late Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had said that it would become a regional war before he was killed. He made several public statements saying that if either Israel or the United States attacked Iran, that the war would immediately go regional. And I'm told by sources that there are units within the Iranian military that are now cut off. They have limited their communications. They are somewhat isolated and they could be operating with old objectives, old target lists. And they are very difficult to stop if you are no longer in command of them. So a decentralization of the Iranian military is underway. So it seems that those units are still carrying out the late Supreme Leader's objectives to create a regional war. And there it does seem also, more broadly speaking, to be part of Iran's strategy to inflict so much damage, so much economic pain on the region that the governments in the Middle East and the people of the Middle East pressure Israel, pressure the United States to try to come up with a peace deal and go back to the negotiating table with Iran. So far, that has not happened.

Richard Engel reporting from Israel. Continue to stay safe, as always. We appreciate your reporting. Thank you. Coming up, celebration and uncertainty in Iran after the U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed the country's supreme leader.

Up next, hear from Iranians and Iranian Americans about what they hope to see for the country's future. This is Morning News now.

Back now with reactions from Iranian Americans to the killing of the ayatollah this weekend. Those who once called Iran home are sharing their hopes for a country now at a crossroads. Here's NBC News national correspondent Morgan Chesky. For Iranians, but the world is going to be a better place.

Tonight, from coast to coast, a flood of emotions for the more than half million Iranians who now call the United States home.

All the diaspora of Iranians are chanting and excited because we see freedom at hand.

Their glimpse of freedom many thought would never come after a regime that's lasted nearly 50 years. Now, as Iranians look to the country's future, some reaching for its past.

Get back to how Iran was in the '60s and the '70s, and, you know, a democracy where there's freedom and people have, you know, right of speech and right of religion.

In New York's Times Square, one rally's message: Free Iran heard loud and clear. While in LA, in the neighborhood known as Tehranjolies, Iranian flags covering every corner with locals brimming with hope.

Everyone's dancing in Iran.

The last time Shailene Farabi visited her cousins in Iran, she was a young girl. Now, for the first time in her life, she believes better days are ahead.

Do you believe real change can happen now, uh, and how?

I think it will change.

Life will be better over there.

And for mother Sepi Maccabee, prayers that this moment marks a turning point.

We were oppressed and my parents left the country so that my sister and I could have a free life. My kids get to see a free Iran.

Freedom that tonight feels closer yet far from guaranteed. Morgan Chesky, NBC News, Los Angeles.

For more on the reaction from Iranians here in the U.S., as well as those inside Iran, let's bring in former Tehran bureau chief of The Washington Post, Jason Rezaian, who was accused and convicted of espionage by Iran and held prisoner for 544 days. Jason, good morning. Thank you very much for joining us today, giving us your unique perspective. You lived and you worked in the country. And I know that you were subject to torture during your time in prison. So obviously a very unique perspective when it comes to this moment, to this particular country. What is your reaction to what's happening?

Savannah, I think it's a mix of emotions like it is for most Iranians. I think there's a sense of elation and celebration and hope that folks that were in that last package indicated about a possible future for Iran. But Also a lot of anxiety, trepidation, confusion about what comes next. Nothing is guaranteed. And as we've seen already, just because the supreme leader who had ruled ruthlessly over Iran for 37 years has been eliminated, the system continues to mete out a lot of destruction in the region and around the country. I'm just getting reports this morning from folks on the ground in Iran that they're receiving SMS messages telling them not to go out into the streets. If they do, it is a crime that they will be punished for, for taking to the streets again. There are vigilantes patrolling the streets, as they always do in times of turmoil. So it's not a situation where freedom is at hand, which I think we have to really consider that this is going to be a long-term their set of operations, both militarily from the U.S. and Israel, but also, you know, whatever the Iranian people decide to do in response to that is certainly not clear at this point.

Jason, because of the internet blackouts, it is hard to get information out of Iran from people, but obviously you're seeing bits and pieces come out. Do we just have a general sense of what the feeling is, what the overwhelming reaction is to death of the ayatollah now, 3 days later?

Look, I think you can— you can say that many, many, many people are ecstatic that this person who symbolized the repression of that state is no longer. But I also see images of people mourning their loved ones who've been killed in these strikes. I don't think that this is a simple case of we're happy that this person is gone. Right. This is not a constant party celebration. There aren't parties happening all throughout the streets of Iran because the force of the Islamic Republic is out and available to repress them. And normal people don't have the wherewithal or the weaponry to defend themselves. So it's, it's a mixed bag.

It is. It certainly is, Jason. It's such a nuanced situation. Kind of on the other end of this, I want to bring up over the weekend, New York City Mayor Azar on Monday called the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran a catastrophic escalation and an illegal war of aggression. On the other hand of that, we have what you just said, that there are people who are ecstatic about it and Iranians thanking President Trump. Have you heard a similar condemnation like this one from the mayor of New York City from any Iranian-Americans?

Some, yeah, certainly. I mean, I think in our diaspora, which is a very large and, and educated, worldly, sophisticated group of people spread across this country, there is a lot of happiness that, that the Supreme Leader was taken out. But there are also people saying, cautioning that we don't want something similar to happen that happened in neighboring Iraq or Syria or Afghanistan. So those are different situations, different countries, different variables. But the one thing that we do know is that Congress did not have a chance to weigh in on this, and that breaks with tradition and law.

Jason Rosian, thank you very much for walking us through again this nuanced, complicated situation. Your perspective is appreciated.

My pleasure.

Coming up, the war in Iran driving prices at the pump.

Yeah, when we come back, a look at the impacts of the conflict on the world's oil supply, what it means for Americans and people across the globe. You are watching Morning News Now. We're back with growing questions about the global oil market as the conflict in the Middle East escalates. Over the weekend, crude oil prices jumped 10% following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Experts say the war could cause major disruptions to oil production and shipping. They warned that retail gas prices in the U.S. could spike as soon as today.

For more on this, let's bring in NBC News business and economy reporter Emily Larsch. Obviously, the big questions a lot of Americans are asking— we don't have definitive answers, but just how much could gas prices go up? What are some of the factors that are going to go into it?

Certainly important news for everyone who's heading to those gas pumps. So a $10 spike in crude oil prices typically translates to to a higher price by about $0.25 per gallon. So really right now, the national average is just below $3 per gallon at the gas pump. And so we're expecting that possibly today and in the next 2, 3, 4 days for that to rise above $3 per gallon for gas. And then from there, we're expecting price increases of about $0.10, $0.15. Now, it's important to note that we aren't expecting a huge spike all of a sudden. We are expecting, analysts say, that this increase in gas prices will be pretty incremental here.

Something that I think is important to point out here is, is why this conflict would impact gas prices in the way that it does, because Iran actually only produces less than 5% of the world's oil. However, its geographic location has a major impact on the global supply. Tell us about that.

Exactly right.

What's happening here is that the conflict is really affecting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. So now this is a critical passageway for oil and gas trade. About 20% of the world's oil actually passes through there every single day. I think we have a map of the Strait of Hormuz to take a look at where that is. But really, several of the leading cargo shipping companies have said that they're halting or they're diverting ships that were originally set to pass through that critical waterway. And so what we're really just looking at here, we're keeping eyes— all eyes right now are on that Strait of Hormuz. And whether or not ships are able to pass by and how much disruption is really, you know, going to make an impact specifically in that area.

So in the end, we're really talking about 20% of the world's oil supply in this region right now, hoping to try and calm the markets. We know several countries that are part of OPEC+. They say they plan to increase the production by more than 200,000 barrels of oil a day starting next month. That helps, right? Explain that.

It does.

But that really only represents about 0.2% of global demand. So Joe, it really could help with prices, but only moderately. What else could also impact prices is how much supply is disrupted, especially at that Strait of Hormuz, as we just mentioned. Also, how long a disruption actually lasts, the ability, of course, to mobilize supply from other sources, and then really just how this conflict plays out. You know, what's going to happen next, how much disruption we end up seeing in the coming days, in the coming weeks.

Walk us through any other impacts we could see here, other commodities that could be impacted. We know stocks are already tumbling this morning.

What do we know Certainly liquefied natural gas could be pretty big here as well, especially in Europe. Now, just this morning, as a result of an attack, Qatar has halted production at the world's top production plant for liquefied natural gas. And so already this morning, natural gas futures traded in Europe slightly around 40%. Now, US trading still higher as well, but that's more by about 5%. We're not seeing as much of an impact or we won't see as much of an impact here in the US. but definitely in Europe for liquefied natural gas.

All right, Emily Lorsch, thank you for being with us. Appreciate it. That is going to do it for this hour of morning news.

Now stay with us, though. The news continues right now.

Top of the hour, let's get right to the latest out of the Middle East. You are looking at stunning video of a U.S. warplane falling out of the sky near an American airbase in Kuwait. US Central Command saying just this morning friendly fire was to blame. The surreal images coming amid an intensifying war with Iran following this weekend's joint barrage of strikes from Israel and the United States. Hundreds have been killed so far in Iran, among them, of course, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, slain in Saturday's attack. It's all reigniting widespread violence in the region. Several key American allies United Nations now in Iran's crosshairs, facing retaliatory strikes that have turned deadly. President Trump now back in Washington this morning as we learn a fourth American service member has succumbed to their injuries in the aftermath of these attacks.

America will avenge their deaths and deliver the most punishing blow to the terrorists who have waged war against basically civilization.

We have continuing coverage from across the globe, including how this latest military escalation in the Middle East could impact America's economy and your bottom line. Good morning. Good to have you with us. I'm Joe Fryer.

And I'm Savannah Sellers. Thanks very much for being with us on this busy day. We have NBC News chief international correspondent Richard Engel in Israel in a residential neighborhood outside of Jerusalem with the very latest. Richard, good morning.

Good morning. I'm in Beit Shemesh, and this is what a single Iranian ballistic missile did to a neighborhood here. At least 9 Israelis were killed. And this is just one incident of this war, as you mentioned, which is rapidly expanding. Not just a war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, but which has spread all across the Gulf And at this stage, which seems to be continuing to grow, a new country entered the war just, just overnight. Lebanon, the Lebanese militia group Hezbollah firing rockets at Israel, Israel returning fire. And according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, 30 people were killed in Lebanon. So just on day 3 of this conflict, each day we are seeing it grow and expand to new, to new countries and incorporating and bringing in new risks.

Top of the hour. Let's get right to the very latest out of the Middle East on the heels of a fiery and sprawling press conference from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Just hours earlier, stunning video of a US warplane falling out of the sky near an American airbase in Kuwait. US Central Command saying just this morning friendly fire was to blame. The surreal images coming amid an intensifying war with Iran following this weekend's joint barrage of strikes from Israel and the United States. Hundreds have been killed so far, among them, of course, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, who was slain in Saturday's attack. It is all reigniting widespread violence in the region. Several key American allied nations now in Iran's crosshairs, facing retaliatory strikes that have turned deadly. President Trump is now back in Washington this morning as we learn a fourth American service member has succumbed to their injuries in the aftermath of those attacks.

America will avenge their deaths and deliver the most punishing blow to the terrorists who have waged war against Basically civilization.

We have continuing coverage from across the globe, including how this latest military escalation in the Middle East could impact America's economy and your bottom line. We have breaking news right now coming out of Beirut where you see the smoky skies there. This battle has now extended to Lebanon. Israeli Defense Forces saying they have begun striking Hezbollah terror targets throughout Lebanon as the conflict expands.

Those live pictures you're seeing there. Good morning. Thank you very much for being with us on a busy Monday. I'm Savannah Sellers.

I'm Joe Fryer, NBC News political reporter. Megan Liebowitz joins us now. And Megan, we want to walk through some of the key headlines we heard from Secretary Hegseth within the last little bit. What are we learning about the military operation and America's goals in Iran and anything else also about the timeline here.

Yeah, a few key points that I want to walk you guys through from this press briefing that wrapped just a short while ago. One is that we're learning more about how the administration perceives the future timeline of all of this. So President Trump has previously laid out to reporters from other outlets that this could last potentially 4 or 5 weeks. We heard from General Dan Cain, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, staff, who said that this is not a single overnight operation. We also heard from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who was asked about the president's assessment of how long this could potentially take. And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had said, you know, that the president is able to talk about how long this could potentially take, saying it could be 4 weeks, 2 weeks, 6 weeks. It could move up, it could move back. But basically saying that the U.S. is going to go and set out and do what the administration wants to achieve here. We also heard them saying, preparing people for the possibility that more U.S. troops could ultimately be killed as this operation unfolds. We heard similar lines from the president previously over the weekend as well. But this is something that is significant to hear because it seems like they're preparing Americans for the possibility that there could be more people who ultimately lose their lives. General Dan Cain had said we expect to take additional losses as all of this continues to unfold here. And then another point that I want to highlight for you all is what happened when Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was asked about whether U.S. boots are on the ground. He said that no boots are on the ground, but he also— he didn't seem to rule it out. He said that they're not going to go into an exercise of basically saying what they will do or what they won't do, going on again to say the US is going to achieve what the president is setting out to do. So not ruling out US boots on the ground in pretty significant comments from the press there.

Megan, let's talk about what we might see at home in reaction to this. We understand lawmakers are expected to vote this week on a war powers resolution that would require President Trump to get approval from Congress before taking further military military action, especially given that we're hearing from the president, he sees this going as long as 4 or 5 weeks. What do we think could happen here?

Yeah, so senators are going to be back on the Hill today and we're expecting to get more reaction. Lawmakers are also going to receive classified briefings tomorrow when, you know, typically we're expecting them to get more information about the U.S. military operation, perhaps the intelligence that had gone into all this. And it's going to give lawmakers the opportunity to really ask top administration officials some of these questions that they're already asking publicly about, hey, what's the U.S.'s strategy moving forward? How is the U.S. actually going to achieve the president's objectives and what the potential timeline for all of this could be? Now, as you mentioned, critics of the administration's move have been criticizing how President Trump did not first go to Congress to get permission for carrying out these strikes. A group of Democrats and a couple of Republicans as well are pushing for a war powers vote this week. We don't know exact timing about when that could potentially happen. But if that ultimately does move forward, as we're expecting there to be a vote that is pushed for, what they're hoping to achieve is that if it's passed, President Trump would then have to— it would restrict his ability to have these military operations in Iran without first going to members of Congress here. Now, the margins are pretty slim for Republicans in the House and the Senate. So it's going to be interesting to see whether any additional Republicans give Democrats the margins to ultimately move that forward.

All right. Megan Liebowitz reporting from Washington. Megan, thank you so much.

Now let's bring in NBC News international correspondent Matt Bradley. He has more for us on this trading fire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Matt, good Morning. We just started this hour showing live pictures of the sky over Beirut with smoke from these Israeli attacks. Give us the latest here. When we spoke with you earlier this morning, I had mentioned that the Lebanese prime minister had said, hey, any of these Hezbollah strikes coming out of Lebanon are illegal. We don't want anything to do with this. We do not want that happening. We're now seeing Israel trade back these blows. Walk us through what we're seeing.

Yeah, I mean, this is something that actually the military spokesman was asked today in a briefing. One reporter said, why is it that you can say that this was illegal, that the Hezbollah was firing over the border into Israel when in fact Israel has been firing on a daily basis targeting Hezbollah ever since that peace treaty— excuse me, treaty came into effect back in November of 2024. So this is something that the Israelis are saying. Is illegal. The, uh, Hezbollah fired 3 different rockets into Israel. 2 of them were intercepted. 1 of them landed into an open area. The Israeli counterattack was huge, killing at least 31 people and perhaps injuring nearly 150 more. And the Israelis have said they are going to continue striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. While we haven't necessarily seen any more from Hezbollah. The big question looming all over this is whether or not Hezbollah's attacks were just a one-off or whether or not they will continue and cause the evacuation of northern Israel, a possible ground invasion by Israeli troops into Lebanon, which wasn't ruled out by Israeli military spokespeople, or whether or not this is going to cause a more extended conflict. This is something that we don't really know because this is basically a protest move. Hezbollah had said they're doing this in solidarity with the assassination of, of Ali Khamenei. So maybe this is just them trying to essentially express themselves and don't intend to actually turn this into a bigger conflict. What happens in the next couple of hours and days will determine whether or not we see this getting worse and worse and the full spilling over of this war between Israel and Iran and the United States into other countries, which we've been seeing more and more.

Now, let's talk about what's happening there in Israel, which has been largely fending off attacks from Iran. And we know there was that deadly strike in a residential neighborhood just outside of Jerusalem over the weekend after an Iranian missile did break through Israel's defense systems. You were there reporting for us for NBC News Now yesterday. Tell us more about that. And just aside from this attack, how well has Israel's Iron Dome been able to keep up and defend the country with these ongoing strikes?

All great questions, Joe, and exactly the questions that Israelis are asking themselves. I mean, one of the reasons why that situation in Beit Shemesh was so shocking to a lot of folks here isn't just because of the high death count, which is 9. That was the highest by far of any single strike by the Iranians, but also because so many of them were killed while they were hiding in inside a bomb shelter, which was underneath a synagogue. And in fact, there was whole families who were killed, brothers and sisters, all of them from this community, which is a very ultra-Orthodox Jewish community, as you mentioned, between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. So this is going to cause a lot of concern because many Israelis seek shelter in these bomb shelters when they hear these sirens going off. And most of them believe they're safe because they are. And the fact is, is that most strikes that hit near some of these bomb shelters don't cause any fatalities at all. And that's why the Israelis have endured a really relatively shockingly low level of fatalities ever since this all started yesterday morning or two— excuse me, two days ago. But this could get worse. It does look as though the number of Iranian strikes against Israel has decreased in the past 24 hours. We heard this from the spokesperson for the IDF. It doesn't necessarily mean that the Iranians are running out of ammunition. It's anybody's guess. But given that we now know that the Israelis have complete air superiority over Iran, it's going to make it pretty hard for the Iranians to keep up the level of firepower and the level of fighting that they had before.

Matt, tell us just what life has been like in Israel these past few days. You mentioned people spending time in these bomb shelters and something like this shakes that confidence. But what has it been like with these ongoing attacks?

It's remarkable, really. I mean, just living here is so interesting. It reminds me a lot of what happened back in June. You know, I was, you know, going down the street and there was an alarm and I ran in. I was actually at a restaurant. I ran inside with the restaurant employees and all the other customers. Into a bomb shelter and we just stayed there for a while. There was Wi-Fi in the shelter that was available to everybody, you know, but not everybody in this country has that kind of access. And the people in this community of Beit Shemesh, they had to leave their homes and go into a public bomb shelter. That's the reality for many people here. But I got to tell you guys, it is super relaxed most of the time because Iranians have so— excuse me, because Israelis have so much confidence in the integrity of these shelters and of this early warning system that has flawlessly given information in advance about when Iranian or in this case, Hezbollah strikes are going to be landing. So far, we haven't heard of this system, this early warning system failing in any way, even if some of these safe rooms, these mamads, as they call them in Hebrew, haven't always stood up.

All right.

Matt Bradley from Tel Aviv. For us. Thank you very much.

NBC News chief international correspondent Keir Simmons is in Dubai with the very latest. Keir, good morning. And the press conference we heard this morning, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth talking about and asked about the now 4 U.S. service members who have been killed so far in this operation. Tell us more about— we're learning about the circumstances surrounding their deaths and also that other incident involving the U.S. fighter jets and the friendly friendly fire from Kuwait this morning?

Yeah, they talked about it. I would say they touched on it in that news conference. And I think, Joe, even that is notable, that it wasn't the primary messaging in the news conference. And I suspect there's a reason for that. What they did tell us was that Iranian, in the case of those service people who died, the Iranian munition hit where they were, that it was defended, but that it was a powerful munition. Now, there is an investigation underway inevitably, and we will see what that, what that tells us. Although, of course, and this is, you know, something that President Trump said when he made his— when he published his video address in the past 48 hours.

Hours.

This is war. And to think that you could launch an operation as complex as this in a region like this and not face casualties, well, that would be naive, honestly. This is— we already can see, can't we, already, that this is not like the operation in Venezuela. This is a much more complex and multifaceted faceted. This is a much more complex and multi-faceted war, frankly. And then in terms of those fighter jets, those fighter jets that were downed, that's friendly fire. And again, that happens in conflict. Now, the pilots were able to eject, and that, that is a thankful thing, obviously. So in a way, you're going to say that the training worked and that, OK, you don't want a situation where you're struck by the friendly— your own fire, but you do want to be able to get out of the situation if that does happen. It's interesting that the friendly fire was from the Kuwaitis. And in any operation, when it— when there are multiple military the military is involved, communication between the military is always a pressure point. It's always a challenge. And so, again, we'll have to wait to see what happened there. But, but certainly that part that's happened before, that we've seen that before, that the US military is working with other Air Force or armies or navies and that there is a challenge because of, for example, just whether or not your ally is able to identify that you are who you are. To put it as simply as that.

Here just a bit ago, we heard from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, along with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Caine, sort of giving the latest here, briefing on what has happened over the weekend, giving a bit of information about what is to come, though not a lot. Really stating goals, though, of destroying the missile threat from Iran, destroying their navy, making sure there are no nuclear weapons ever for this country. How do you think the message from the Secretary of War will be received in the region you're in?

Yeah, and destroying their missile production, too. I think that that's not a bad message for this region.

Region.

I mean, keep in mind, I'm standing here in Dubai. I mean, that, that is a— this side— that is an iconic building right there behind me, the tallest tower in the world. And there are images of a drone flying right by it from the weekend. So this country, the United Arab Emirates, has suffered a barrage in the past 48 hours. Astoundingly, strikingly, its air defenses have been incredibly effective. Hundreds of drones and missiles and almost all of them taken out. And some of the injuries have been from people standing underneath those moments when those drones or missiles are intercepted and the debris falls. So just to go back a little bit of history, to go back to the nuclear deal signed by President Obama, the JCPOA, that anger in this region about that deal was that it only focused on the nuclear side and didn't address the thousands of missiles that Iran had capable of hitting places like this. And I think what Pete Hegseth, what Secretary Hegseth was trying to say in that news conference was, here now you see the true Iran as it unleashes that firepower on this region. What, just for people who are confused, why would they be doing this? Doing this. The reason they are doing this is because they are hoping to sow chaos and also to get these governments to go to Washington, to contact Washington and say, we can't handle this any longer. I will say that appears to have backfired on them quite extensively because these governments here, the neighbors of Iran, are furious with Iran for doing this. And because the defenses have appeared so far to be so effective, although But you never know. This is war and you never know when something could happen. A missile could get through and in a devastating way that can change, change views.

Absolutely. Keir Simmons from Dubai again, which has seen its fair share of this conflict over the last few hours, potentially backfiring here. Thank you very much for your reporting. Stay safe.

Let's bring in retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Danny Davis. He's a senior fellow and military expert at Defense Priorities, host of the Daniel gave a steep dive. Good to have you back with us again. We know repeatedly the defense secretary was asked what could be the timeline here. He said, I'm never going to hang a timeframe. We heard General Cain say that this was not a single overnight operation. It's going to take some time to achieve, describing the difficult and gritty work ahead. But at the same time, President Trump has been fielding calls from reporters and has said this operation could take as much as 4 weeks. What do you think, based on what we heard in that news conference there and what we've learned over the last several days? Is the most realistic timeline?

Well, listen, I mean, probably the best example that you can take, the most recent one, is look at the Houthis. Look at what we tried to do to get the Red Sea open down there. And we said we were going to, you know, shut them down. This is in 2025. We're going to just knock them out so they can't stop the Red Sea shipping going on, etc. And yet after 7 weeks, we weren't able to. We were trying to knock out their mobile launchers. There was a lot of strikes inside Yemen against them, but they remained viable. That is almost certainly the Iranian plan. You got to understand, they know that they knew this was coming and they've been knowing for decades. They've been preparing for this. They have extensive underground facilities. The IRGC released another video today that showed graphically this, just scores and scores, actually hundreds of drones, of missiles, of underground facilities, huge complexes that are scattered throughout the country. All they have to do— this is one of the important things to understand. You heard Secretary of Defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff lay out the strategy. But on the other side, the Iranian side, their strategy basically is they have to survive like the Houthis did, like the Taliban did. They have to just— even like Hamas has done, they just have to survive and drag this thing out because we can't, we can't accomplish our objectives. I'll just tell you, if the Iranian side don't collapse their government, they can survive a long time, a lot more than 4 weeks. And all they have to do is just keep on firing missiles, keep on firing drones. And what it appears— and it's early— but what it appears to me is that they're saying we're going to continue to fire our worst missiles. And we've seen the physical effects of some of that and a lot of drones to soak up a lot of these air defense missiles that we have, because that's our Achilles heel. How many air defense missiles do we have? And if you soak up a lot of those with some of the slower moving weapons, and some of the older missiles. And then when the stockpiles get low, then they bring out their better stuff. And it appears they have withheld their better stuff. We could be in for a world of hurt. So I think it's a little premature to say that this is only going to take 3 or 4 weeks because Iran could be very well positioned to drag this out a long time. And I'll just repeat, without a ground component, I don't know how we accomplish the mission that the Secretary of State— Defense just mentioned.

Danny, you wrote that in an ex-post that the goals of this war are impossible to achieve without a ground force. Notably, that is something that the secretary of war did not rule out, though he did not say that that is part of the plan at all. Walk us through your case here. Why is it that in order to achieve these stated goals, a ground force would be necessary? And what does that ultimately look like?

Yeah, I mean, you go back to the 2003 Iraq War. That's the one that's your sample here. We had maybe a little bit more air power and naval power than we have here, but something commensurate with it. Well, we could say we're going to topple the Iranian government and then we're going to go in on the ground to validate it. But when President Trump says here that all the IRGC, the police, everybody has to surrender or you'll face certain death, but you don't have a ground force to make good on that, then that means that you have to have a profound number of missiles to literally destroy the country. And Listen, it's 4 times larger physically spread out than Iraq was. So where do we have that kind of inventories of missiles to literally just wipe out this country? The objectives are just too expansive for the resources that we have, especially absent a ground force. And believe me, I am not advocating a ground force at all. That would be— I mean, again, 4 times larger than Iraq. So I don't know where you're going to get this force. It would take months. To get a force of that kind of size to go up there. And even then, I don't know that it could succeed because it's a country of 90 million people. So altogether, all you have to do is survive. I mean, look, look what the Taliban did. Look what Hamas did. Look what Hezbollah has done. They're still viable even after all the attacks that they've had. And the idea that Iran is going to succumb in a matter of weeks when none of those others have just doesn't seem very likely to me.

Lieutenant Colonel Danny Davis, appreciate your time and expertise again this morning. Thank Thank you so much. For a closer look at all this, let's bring in Hagar Shemali. She is the host of Oh My World on YouTube, also the former spokesperson for the U.S. mission to the U.N. and former National Security Council director for Syria and Lebanon. Also joining us here on set, Caroline Rose. She is the director of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy. Good to have both of you with us. Hagar, let's start with you. We know there are these conflicting messages on whether Iran posed any immediate threat to the US. We just heard Secretary Hagseth say this morning, we didn't start the war, but under Donald Trump, we're going to be ending it. What do you think the response in the region would be to a statement like that? And just ultimately, just what is the endgame after this military action over the weekend?

Well, if anybody knows what the threats that the Iranian regime poses and the way they've— the way they've influenced the dynamic over the Middle East since the 1970s, since 1979 and the early 1980s. It's the people in the region. I mean, they are very well aware of, of how the Iranian regime funds its proxies, how it holds these— how it holds their countries hostage, how it poses numerous threats. So they understand what it means to have the Iranian regime pose that regular threat. You know, you mentioned the question about the imminence of it, how imminent a threat it was. What we know from The Wall Street Journal I saw this weekend was that the administration believed that, that the regime was preparing some kind of attack on the U.S. presence in the region. But I would look at this from a much larger picture, which is the fact that since June of last year, Iran was significantly weakened. We own their skies. We and Israel, they didn't have their defense missile capabilities. And given all that time period of the threats that the regime has posed, the extent to which our, our own U.S. government resources were focused on combating the threats emanating from the regime itself and the proxies that they fund. It's— it was too much of an opportunity. The urgency comes from the opportunity to really undermine this regime once and for all and target any of its military abilities. So that's where the urgency really comes from on a bigger scale.

You asked—

sorry, at the end, you asked about where we go from here, I believe. But it's, as you had mentioned already on the show, it's going to take a few weeks. But that said, I wouldn't view this as a war— that it is a war. It's not going to be a war where we're going to be seeing this for years on end. It's not going to turn into a war of attrition. It's meant to be targeted to weaken the regime to the extent that we push it over a cliff, if you will, or that we really twist their arm. Into some kind of agreement where we achieve all the demands that we had been seeking, which go beyond nuclear, nuclear-related issues.

Hagar, we had been speaking with you when we saw really these historic protests unfold in Iran, the largest and sort of with a different tone than we had seen really ever before. Of course, that was met with this brutal crackdown on there for protesters, and we'd since sort of seen them quell. But now we're seeing the president of the United States in his first comments whatsoever posted on social media about this call on the Iranian people to rise up. We heard the exact same message from the secretary of war just a bit ago. There's the authoritarian regime that we've seen there, and then there's also the economic collapse that it seemed Iran was headed for anyway. Do you think that the Iranian people are hearing a message like that? And do you think that anything could happen in that regard on the ground from Iranian people?

Yes. So this economic collapse you mentioned that the regime is in the middle of is, is it helps accelerate their, their certain demise. And these, these, this war also helps. That's why I say they're kind of on a— I would imagine them standing on a cliff. And these— this war kind of helps push them over the edge. And the Iranian people, it is the economic economic situation that initially led them to the streets early at the end of last year. And then the youth joined the shopkeepers. And that's what, what made those large protests. It is one of the things that, that the Iranian people feel they couldn't put food on the table because of the government's economic mismanagement, massive inflation, a currency that is significantly devalued, and it is only going to get worse without war at all. This regime was going down a path of economic collapse anyway. And so this is an opportunity.

Yes.

Now, the Iranian people do hear the U.S. loud and clear. It is what really ultimately, by the way, leads to the collapse of most authoritarian leaders is not just economic collapse. It's that that leads to the military not getting paid and the military defecting. And a lot of the messaging you're seeing from the administration, you can see, is also directed to the IRGC, telling them to surrender and lay down their arms so that they face immunity. We're hearing of low-level defections, but not on a scale large enough yet for, for something to really crumble the regime yet. But it's headed there.

We want to bring in Caroline Rose now, who's an expert on Iran's role in the region. You've written a lot about Iran's, quote, good neighbor policy, which it has adopted in over the last few years. That seems to be at odds with the strategy we've seen Iran Iran use over the last few days here, which is suddenly bombing all these other countries in the region. Are you surprised by that? What is Iran's strategy here and how does that play into what you've been witnessing with this good neighbor policy recently?

Certainly. So the good neighbor policy that it has implemented across the Middle East primarily relates to its sponsorship of Iran-backed militia networks across the region. These are militias that are operating in Iraq, in Syria, in Lebanon. Though a lot of these militia networks have been weakened by the Israeli campaign that it conducted after the aftermath of October 7th. Now we are seeing this activation of militia networks. And I think in the coming days, we should expect these militias to conduct their own strikes on U.S. assets, U.S. military bases and interests in the region. And then, of course, we also see these strikes from Iran itself, strikes on oil refineries. Strikes on hotels, strikes on military bases across the region. And this is not just U.S. interests. These are U.S. partners that are in the region. And I think that this is a— it's a pressure tactic. It's a campaign to try and mount pressure on the United States, on Israel, trying to essentially make this squeeze in the region to compel them to try and lobby Washington to stop these strikes.

It was interesting, though, to hear our colleague Kirsten Minton. You've been sitting with us very patiently, so thank you for that. And I know you heard that reporting essentially say that it seems like this is backfiring in some ways. Do you agree with that?

I think yes and no. I think that many of these neighbors are now very frustrated. And I think in some cases they are moved to support this pressure tactic against Iran. However, the way that they're conducting this, I think that it has already caused caused many grievances in the region, especially given the fact that so many civilians have been impacted with, with war and conflict, especially when it comes to Iran. You see things get hot very quickly. Also, of course, there are tactical errors. For example, the friendly fire incident that we saw recently just this morning where a U.S. aircraft was shot out of the sky. Luckily, luckily, that crew was, was unharmed. But I think that goes to show just how quickly things can descend to where there's friendly fire or there's tactical mistakes and civilians are harmed, not just military personnel. And so I think that that will be a key pressure tactic on the United States and Israel as they continue this offensive.

Caroline Rosegar-Shamali, we appreciate both of your expertise on this breaking news this morning. Thank you both.

Now let's take a look at the surging energy prices in the wake of these ongoing operations in Iran.

This morning, oil prices are spiking and global stocks are falling after the U.S. and Israel continue these strikes on Iran. These attacks threaten to restrict the movement of oil supplies from the region, and that could mean higher gas prices at the pump.

We are joined by NBC News senior business correspondent Christine Romans for what this means for the economy here at home and more broadly. Christine, good morning. So first, just tell us, how have we seen markets react to all of this?

As expected, a big a big spike in the price of oil, both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude. These are the two kind of benchmarks that we watch. And when they opened last night, they both spiked here. So closely watching what that's going to mean. There's a, there's a lot of things happening in terms of concerns about this region. This is a very intense oil-producing region. But then, as you know, a lot of things pass through there.

Americans are hearing a lot perhaps for the first time about the Strait of Hormuz in that region. Explain its significance to the entire global economy, especially when it comes to oil.

It's this narrow little pinch point in a waterway right there adjacent to Iran with all these other big energy producers surrounding it. And this is where 20% of global supply of oil passes through. I mean, look at that pinch point there. So you have right now Dozens and dozens, if not hundreds of ships that are basically sitting there. They have moved away from exactly where you, where you pass through and they're waiting to see what happens. We know that insurance companies are starting to warn that they are going to cancel or no longer renew some of these, you know, war risk policies that could drive up shipping costs. So there's a lot of concern about what's moving through there. It's not just oil. It's oil, it's liquefied natural gas, it's fertilizer that's used in the region. These are all things that are really important to keep economies humming. When you start to have disruptions, that of course can raise prices for things and feed into that whole inflation narrative.

And Christine, President Trump has said that this could go on for weeks, 4 weeks, 5 weeks. What are the biggest concerns that Americans are going to feel here at home, certainly when it comes to their wallet? And when— like, what's the timeline for this direct impact to U.S. consumers?

So very quickly, I think you'll see gas prices start to rise. Patrick DeHanna, Gas Buddy, said you'll see the national average quickly move above $3 a gallon for gas in the U.S. and then could continue to rise. I mean, there's a, there's a rule of thumb that we use. For every dollar that crude oil prices rise— of course, crude is refined into gasoline, among other things— for every dollar that crude oil rises, that raises gas prices about 2.5 cents. So as $10 jump in gas prices would be $0.25 at the pump. And that can happen pretty quickly. We know that in other periods of instability, quite quickly gas prices rise in reaction to even perceived threats to supply. Now, we're talking about the supply moving through the Strait of Hormuz, but also you've got a Qatar liquefied natural gas, natural gas facility that has been shut down because it was attacked by, I think, a drone. You also have a Saudi Arabian oil facility that is a refining facility that's been shut down. It was attacked by a drone. So as you see the infrastructure of the region start to come offline just to protect its workers and protect its supply, that'll also feed into this. All of this, what matters, guys, is how long this goes on, how long before there is, you know, stability in the region. And, and these oil producers feel like they can start drilling, pumping, distilling, refining and shipping again.

All right, Christine Romans, thank you very much. We have much more to come on this hour of morning news.

Yeah, we'll have continuing coverage out of the Middle East. Stay with us.

We are back with a developing story here at home. The FBI is now working with local authorities in Texas after a deadly shooting at a bar in downtown Austin over the weekend. 2 people were killed and 14 others injured. The suspect, a 53-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen from Senegal, was shot and killed by police at the scene. Federal investigators are now looking into whether this may have been an act of terrorism. NBC News correspondent Priscilla Thompson joins us from Austin with the latest. Priscilla, good morning.

Well, this shooting happened early Sunday morning at this bar just minutes before closing. Witnesses describe hearing people screaming and seeing people running for their lives as a barrage of bullets rang out. This morning, the FBI is on the scene investigating a deadly mass shooting in a popular Austin nightlife area.

What is going on?

I'm just gonna flag down, uh, somebody advising there's an active shooter.

Two people were killed and 14 others injured when a gunman opened fire on Buford's Beer Garden early Sunday morning. Four sources familiar with the investigation now identifying the suspect as a 53-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen from Senegal with possible mental health issues.

Hey, close the door! I heard people screaming, people running, uh, from this side over here.

The alleged shooter seen wearing a Property of Allah sweatshirt according to multiple sources and a shirt with an Iranian flag emblem underneath. Authorities are now trying to determine if this was an act of terrorism.

It's still way too early in the process to determine an exact motivation, but there were indicators that on the subject and in his vehicle that indicate potential nexus to terrorism.

Police say they arrived in under a minute.

It was really scary because the shooter was walking towards me.

Nathan Como had just left the bar and watched as police rushed in, killing the gunman. How did you feel?

I, I just felt shocked.

When I look back on it, I'm like, oh my God, like, if I walked out of that bar 5 minutes later, I would have been on the patio instead of those other victims.

And witnesses tell us that this was a popular bar among college students. We now know the name of one of the victims, his brother identifying him as 19-year-old Ryder Harrington. The brother writing on Facebook, quote, watching the man man he had become and seeing all the lives he touched leaves me certain that this world was robbed of a great future. Back to you.

All right, Priscilla Thompson, thank you.

Turning now to the latest in the search for Nancy Guthrie. Sunday marked one month since the mother of Today co-anchor Savannah Guthrie was taken from her home in Arizona. Investigators are continuing to pursue multiple leads, including neighborhood surveillance video and DNA evidence that was at the home. A vigil was held last night to mark one month. NBC News correspondent Liz Kreutz has been following this story from the start and joins us now from Tucson. Liz, good morning.

Well, hi Joe, good morning to you. It really is heartening to see how many people continue to send their love and support to Savannah and her family. We actually did that drive between Nancy's home and that home where that car drove by around the time of her kidnapping. Well, we don't We don't know if it's the abductors. The timing does roughly line up. We also went inside a forensics lab to learn more about why processing that mixed DNA is so complicated. This morning, Tucson marking 1 month since Nancy Guthrie went missing.

There's still a lot of hope out there.

4 weeks later, investigators still trying to piece together the unbearable mystery. According to FBI crime data, kidnappings involving seniors over the age of 80 are extremely rare, fewer than 1% of all abductions. Investigators continue to work several leads, including the thousands of hours of footage amassed, like that Ring camera video obtained by Fox News Digital showing a car driving past a home 2.5 miles away around the time Nancy Guthrie was abducted. According to the sheriff, Nancy's pacemaker disconnected at 2:28 AM. The car in the Ring footage drove by this house 8 minutes later at 2:36 AM. Google Maps says the drive between the two homes is 7 minutes. We did it ourselves and it took us just over 6 minutes.

The abductors have probably burned all their clothes, they've got rid of the car, but they can't get rid of video evidence that's in a neighbor's house and that's a couple of miles away. So that's good, that's good evidence. Better evidence, let's find some DNA.

Arizona State University forensic science professor April Stonehouse is an expert in mixed DNA like the sample believed to be found at Nancy's home. When the sheriff says that the lab is facing some challenges, what do you think that means?

I think that means that there are potentially items of evidence that maybe don't have a lot of DNA on them to begin with.

She says it's very possible the mixture is mostly DNA of just one person.

Let's say 90% of the DNA comes from the victim and only 10% is from the suspect. Then what they can potentially do is go back back and rerun that sample and add more DNA, hoping to bring up the signal from the suspect's profile, but there's no guarantee.

Meanwhile, outside the station where Savannah once worked, a growing number of messages of love and hope. Why is it important for you to come and sign this wall?

Because I'm a Tucsonan and I'm a mother, and it's heartbreaking.

And that's for a video of that car driving 2.5 miles away around the time of Nancy's kidnapping. It's important to remember that this is just one piece of video out of thousands of hours of video footage investigators are looking at, most of which has not been made public. That said, I can tell you from doing the drive, while it is definitely not the fastest way out of Nancy's neighborhood, it is a route that would avoid the biggest intersections. Back to you, Joe.

All right, Liz Kreutz, thank you. We've got more morning news now right after this.

We're back in just a minute. Stay with us.

Back now with more breaking news from the escalating war in the Middle East.

Israel's army says it has begun striking targets linked to Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. This comes as earlier today Israel began retaliating against Hezbollah strikes on Israel.

NBC News correspondent Danielle Hooman Majd joins us now from Danielle Beyrouth in Lebanon with more. Danielle, good morning. What more are you seeing and just what are we learning from the IDF about these latest strikes on what it is calling Hezbollah's terror targets?

Hey, Joe. Well, history is repeating itself yet again here in Lebanon. And look behind me. It is a beautiful bay, beautiful beaches. But across the bay and just over half an hour ago, it was anything but. We saw— well, we felt here the balcony vibrate, heard a loud boom, and there were plumes of smoke rising above this suburb of Beirut called Dahyeh, which is a Hezbollah stronghold. The same scene overnight. The IDF striking multiple targets in Dahyeh. But that started just after midnight when Hezbollah, to avenge the killing of of Khamenei— of course, Hezbollah is backed by Iran— launched a number of rockets and drones into northern Israel. And we spent the day with people who fled the, the, the neighborhood of Deir el-Hijjah. And what they told us is that as soon as they heard that Hezbollah had launched rockets and drones, they knew what was about to come— more strikes on Deir el-Hijjah. They packed what they could, got into a car, and left. And you could see thousands of people in traffic trying to leave the neighborhood. And so our colleague here says that he was woken up by the sound of fire, gunfire in the air, warning people they had to immediately evacuate. And then about a dozen strikes were heard. And, and so this is now a new front in the war. We spent the day at a— in central Beirut, which is about a few miles away from Dahiye. Syria and spoke to some of these people who've, who've left. Now, what was interesting is that, you know, they're not going to be openly critical of Hezbollah, certainly not on camera. They live in a Hezbollah stronghold and they're not willing to take that risk. But what they told us off camera, some of them said that they are sympathetic to Hezbollah. They are ideologically aligned, but they are sick of war. They are sick of displacement, of nonstop bombing. They had months and months of that. And they were just starting to rebuild, not only here in Beirut and Dakhia, but in southern Lebanon, when once again the war seems to start once again. One woman told us that the situation is now so bad, life is unaffordable. It's unbearable, she said. But she has been pushed to the limit where she said out loud, I'm ready to live in peace next to Israel.

Remind us what triggered these strikes, Danielle. I mean, a lot of our viewers probably remember those pager attacks back in 2024. There's a long history, of course, of fighting between these two countries right on this border between Hezbollah and Israel. Walk us through how we got here.

Well, of course, we all remember October 7th. Well, Hezbollah, which is on the northern— on southern Lebanon to the north of Israel, launched, launched strikes in solidarity with Hamas. And so began 14 months of war between Hezbollah and Israel. Hundreds of people died on this side. Tens of thousands of Israelis had to be evacuated from northern Israel until there was a ceasefire in November 2024. Now, since then, many people here will tell you Israel has almost on a daily basis violated negotiated that ceasefire. And until last night, Hezbollah had not fired rockets or missiles or drones into Israel. But of course, that changed after midnight last night and it triggered what is the biggest assault on Beirut since that ceasefire was announced in 2024.

All right, Danielle Hooman Majd, thank you very much for your reporting here. Well, the strikes across the Middle East are having a major impact on travel all in the region.

Many flights have been canceled and that's leaving thousands of people stranded.

Among those is Oliver Sims, who you can see is joining us now. He's an American who is currently stuck in Doha, Qatar. Oliver, thank you very much for joining us. Good morning. We actually understand that you were headed home from a 2-week trip in India with just this connecting flight through Doha. Tell us what happened once your flight took off and when you sort of realized something is wrong.

Yes. So basically we had taken off, everything seemed fine, and then I had noticed that the plane had turned around whenever I was looking at the map. And essentially, I am a big aviation geek, so I pulled out some other apps that I have and I saw that there were other planes that had also turned around. Then we had turned over Saudi Arabia, and 30 minutes later the captain came on the loudspeaker and said that we had to turn around due to restrictions with the airspace and also because of a military conflict that had arisen. So we had to return back to Doha. And it was pretty interesting. It was kind of scary because you didn't really know what exactly was going on. I didn't know, you know, if the plane had kept going, would we have been in the crossfire of that? So it was pretty scary.

When you got back to the airport in Doha, what was it like at the airport? Because you weren't the only flight that was landing there.

Yeah, actually, so every single other Qatar flight that had flown out around the same time as mine had to return. So it was a huge influx of people back into the terminal and they told everyone who was sitting, I think it was like in economy class, to go down into a food court and just wait there. I think that they were telling us to go to this certain food court because it was away from windows, but we were waiting to get more information. Eventually they told us to go to transfer desk to get some information on hotel vouchers. And whenever we were asking them on whether or not we could just rebook our flights, they were saying that since the airspace is closed, they cannot guarantee when another flight would go out. So they cannot rebook our flights at the moment.

What has it been like since you've been there? What have you heard? What have you seen? Where are you now?

Yes. So I'm in my hotel, actually. I've been advised by the U.S. Embassy to just lay low and not leave my hotel. Basically, what I've noticed is that there are lots of citizens outside that are still walking and doing everyday normal activities. However, this morning I was awoken by several loud explosions in the air, which is very interesting because there have been other people that have also reported seeing smoke way up in the sky because of the air defense system that Qatar has that's intercepting the missiles. From Iran and also the drones from Iran too. So you see a lot, you kind of hear a lot too, but at the same time it's pretty calm and everyone is kind of acting, you know, business as usual.

Real quick here, do you have an idea of how you're going to get out of there right now?

I have no idea as to how I'm going to get out of here. You know, people are still waiting on whether or not they're going to get their luggage from the airport. Some people are thinking about going and driving to other countries and then catching flights out of there. And so I'm still weighing several different options as to what I want to do, but I'm not entirely sure yet. And also, I've been in contact with other people who were on my flight as well, and, you know, I'm kind of wondering, you know, should we all band up together and go to a different country and catch a flight out of there or not? So honestly, I have no idea, but I just have to take it minute by minute and day by day.

Oliver Sims, thank you very much for joining us this morning. We'd love to check in with you, stay in touch. Best of luck. Um, we hope you manage Wish to get home soon.

Thank you so much.

We will have continuing coverage of the situation unfolding in the Middle East up next.

You're watching Morning News Now. We're back with the escalating conflict in the Middle East and a closer look at how Iran could use terror groups to help it retaliate against countries around the world.

We've already seen the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah launch a volley of missiles into Israel from its base in southern Lebanon, as we've been discussing. And over the weekend, groups in Pakistan that support Iran's regime launched a series of deadly protests near the U.S. embassy.

And now let's bring in Matthew Levitt. He is the director of the Reinhardt Program on Counterterrorism at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a Frommer-Wexler Senior Fellow. Thank you so much for joining us this morning. Obviously, one of the many concerns over a war with Iran is an increase in terror-related incidents in other places around the globe. How real of a possibility is that? Right now?

Thanks for having me. It's a very real possibility. The more the Iranian regime feels that it faces an existential threat, the more it is likely to lash out in any way possible. Even during the 12-day war back in June, FBI and DHS reported that they ratcheted up efforts. They've done so now again. The Iranians have a track record of carrying out plots abroad using agents of their own. Using terrorist proxies like members of Lebanese Hezbollah, using criminal proxies, several of whom have recently gone on trial in the United States for murder-for-hire-style plots. I'll just give you one example. About a few years ago, a Hezbollah operative was convicted in New York, and he had told the FBI that he considered himself a sleeper agent and asked, under what conditions do you think you'd be asked to actually act on those things that you've done, that pre-operational surveillance? He said, well, certainly if the United States ever went to war with Iran.

Wow. And that's exactly what we want to ask you about, especially you mentioning someone convicted in New York. So these proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, they are— there are several of them linked to Iran. And then, of course, there's the question of possible sleeper cells in the U.S. What do you think on that front?

But first, I don't use the term sleeper cell. It's too Hollywood. But there are people who are affiliated with terrorist groups, are people who are affiliated with Iran and who would be willing to carry out an attack if they were asked to do so. There are people who've carried out pre-operational surveillance in New York and elsewhere. Several of them have been caught and tried. It is a real concern that as Iran feels under threat, it will use some of these entities to try and lash out. We already had an attack the other day in Austin. Where someone appears to have done something possibly in affiliation with Iran, not dispatched by Iran. And this type of lone offender attack where someone is just motivated on their own because they feel close to Iran or they saw the Supreme Leader of Iran as their spiritual leader or what have you to act on their own. This is another concern and one that's harder for law enforcement to stop because these are typically people who have not been on our radar before.

We've heard President Trump say this is an operation that could take 4 or 5 weeks. We really at this point don't know exactly what the timeframe could be, but the longer it goes on, how does that increase or decrease the risk of seeing any sort of terror attacks around the world?

It's less a factor of how long the war goes and more a factor of how desperate the Iranian regime feels and how capable it is of dispatching its operatives. Israeli and American airstrikes have already targeted the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Ministry of Intelligence and Security. It's quite possible that at this point, the Iranian intelligence services are not as capable of giving instructions as they once were. But that raises other concerns that operatives abroad not receiving instruction may decide they need to do something on their own. It also means that the FBI and DHS and others are going to have a 24/7 job going going for probably 4 weeks as they're trying to get ahead of this problem set. And you can be sure that they are working very, very hard to do so.

Matthew Levitt, appreciate your time this morning. Thank you so much. We've got much more to come on this hour of morning news now, including some in-depth analysis on both where Iran and the U.S.

could go from here as the world braces for this uncertain future. That is next. Stay with us. Welcome back. The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have left the whole Middle East on edge.

Yeah, in Tehran, In Iran, the mood is split. Some mourning in the streets, others celebrating the death of the Ayatollah. President Trump has called on Iranians to take over their government as Tehran vows retaliation. All the uncertainty is making it difficult to see how the conflict could develop in the coming weeks. And we are now hearing the president will address Iran around 11 a.m. from the White House today.

For more on where things go from here, we are joined by NBC News contributor and Iranian-American author Hooman Majd, good morning. Thank you very much for being with us. So Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued earlier that this war was not about regime change. He stated some goals of destroying their missile threat, their missile production capabilities, them never being able to have nuclear weapons. What do you make of what the U.S. objective is and how clear it is?

Well, it's entirely unclear. I mean, Hegseth actually contradicted his own boss, the president, who in his video announcement of the beginning of the war on Truth Social actually said it is about regime change. Essentially, he said to the people, rise up, go and take over the government. We're going to hit the government, go and take over. So that's kind of regime change, isn't it? He didn't describe who should take over, whose leader should be, or what the new regime is going to be like. But it was definitely regime change at that point. Now it's changed again. I mean, President Trump has said over the last couple of days in response to people's questions, journalists' questions, different things. So it isn't actually clear. I mean, you don't start a war just because you think you don't like the idea that Iran has ballistic missiles. Well, North Korea has nuclear missiles, nuclear bombs and missiles. Why aren't we attacking them? It's because you would only attack if you really thought there was an imminent threat. And so far, no intelligence agency has said there has been an imminent threat. So right now, we're getting bogged down sort of in a bit, in a way, three US servicemen killed, 3 jets lost just today. That's about $200 or $300 million worth of equipment lost just today. Forget the cost of the actual war. And there's no real end goal that is obvious at this point.

We only have about a minute left here, but just for the region right now, what have the last 3 days meant for the region and what will be the impact moving forward?

Well, the last few days have been horrible for the region. The countries that have always assumed, and Americans and Europeans have always assumed safe havens, Dubai, Qatar, places like that, that people have invested in, that has a huge impact on the economy, world economy, because they're lying in the world. Emirates isn't flying, Qatar isn't flying, the airspaces are closed, there are missile attacks. Now, Iran has just proven, fortunately or unfortunately, fortunately for them, unfortunately for the rest of the world, that these places aren't safe in any situation. So I think It's, it's a, it's a bad situation for the Persian Gulf.

Hooman Majd, thank you very much for being here on a consequential morning and providing us with some of your expertise and your perspective on the situation. And thank you very much for being with us on this busy day.

That is going to do it for this hour of morning news.

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