The NFL’s Patience Problem - [Glue Guys, Ep. 65]

If Brandon Cooks catches that ball, Sean McDermott is coaching. They win the game. He's still the head coach of Buffalo Bills, and we're probably singing his praises.

They're going to the Super Bowl. They're going to be. They're going to be Denver back in quarterback.

Like, he doesn't hold on to, gets ruled interception. He's fucking fired, right? It's super bowl or bust, without a doubt. Okay, fellas. Like, I've been, this has been weighing on my mind with all these head coach firings in the NFL and, and every year, you know, Adam Schefter says, like, hey, there's going to be seven or eight every year. Just history says that, which is insane, right? Like, that's a quarter of the league this year. Abnormal. We've got 10, right? Like, I mean, it's 10 head coach firings, right? Like, we're almost a third of the league turnover. What industry does that? It's just, it seems crazy. It seems impatient. But the ones that, like, really got me this year that I think were so unique were John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott firings, right? Like, these are two of the better teams in football. They have been two of the better teams in football for the past decade. They have MVP quarterbacks, right, that have, that they drafted and developed. And both guys, I would say, like, both QBs weren't necessarily obvious when they got. They were both kind of, I don't want to call projects, but, like, they, they, they developed them right into these guys.

Into MVPs.

Yeah, yeah, totally. Into the face the faces of the league, right? Like two. I mean, these guys are the face of the league, and these teams have been premier teams, and yet these owners decide to, like, cut bait and make a change. And like, again, obviously, I don't know if I, like, I don't know how I feel about it, right? Like, part of me is like, okay, I love the aggressiveness, like, super bowl or bus mentality. Part of me understands that, but part of me is also like, I, I think they've lost context, I think, right? Like, these are great coaches. They've had so much stability, and in actuality, their best chance maybe, of winning a championship was practicing patience, right? Like, and these teams aren't that far from hoisting a Super bowl. And what are the little things they can do to get there, right? Like, I, I don't know. I'm so torn.

So how do you feel? Like, how does it make you feel? Is it unfair? Are these owners being irrational? Like, like, how do you feel?

I. I think this is. And I think what's kind of in my mind, right, like, is again, like, I, I can pull up their win loss record, right? Like, it's like so black and white. Like they did this, right? And they lost in the divisional round. If you're the Buffalo Bills and obviously the Ravens didn't make the playoffs like that. I mean, but I think some of these owners lose context, right? Like every year things happen. Schedule, injuries. Right. Like, there's dynamics that change every single season. Right. Like in anything. And so sometimes I think owners, it important to like, keep context. Like, you can't just look at the record, right? Like, I don't think that always necessarily just defines the season or how good a job the head coach did. I think that Sean McDermott things kind of insane.

Here's, Here's a question for you. Do you think it's easier or more difficult to win a Super bowl or to retire on your own terms, which is more difficult in pro sports as a CEO? What is tougher? What is more rare to have a chance to not have a chance, but to actually win a Super bowl and reach the top of the mountain or to retire and walk away from your profession when you choose to, not when someone else chooses for you what's. What's tougher.

I would actually say the more rare thing is walking away on top because of human nature.

Yeah.

That you just. We all think we're gonna live forever, right? Like, we all think we're gonna stay on top. And it's like, who wants to walk off on the mountaintop?

It's the same reason that, you know, everybody but you. Shane keeps like, playing at the table when they're winning, right? It's like, okay, let me, let me, let me press this thing a little bit, right? Like, nobody. Don't you think? Like, it's like feeling it like there's nobody, right. It's so hard. Alex, just one question for you before we get to like, reactions. Do you think that the Bills situation is different than the Ravens one, though? Because Harbaugh had been there so long, like, is there some element? Like, do you think Harbaugh kind of wanted to leave? Like, isn't he about to go make like 20 million bucks for the Giants Fresh start.

Like, he just signed $100 million contract.

Yeah. So, like, I had been under the impression a little bit that Harbaugh maybe also had been like, you know, it's kind of run its course, time for something new. But, like, I have no idea.

You tell me I don't think so. I don't think he wanted out of there at all. He'd been there 18 years. Like, they'd had so much success, won a Super Bowl. However, this year, like, on paper, right, like, they, they very much underachieved. I think that is a little different than the, the Buffalo conversation, right? Like, again, I actually think, I look at Buffalo and I actually don't think that roster was quite as, even as good as the Ravens. And yet the, they did more, right, and, and lost in overtime on the road at the one seed, right? Like, you know, and again, controversially, again, the perspective of like, well, how, how did this coach do this year? Right? Like, let's really look at it in that perspective. No, I don't think either of those coaches wanted to leave. And I think they'll. Obviously, I, I think Sean will get another head coaching job because he's one of the better head coaches in football. I think part of the reason that screws this whole thing up is it's like Mike Vrabel, right? Like that that's the problem. You know, New England goes from winning, you know, four games to being the 2 seed and now is playing for an AFC championship with a first year head coach.

Yeah, with, with the 30th ranked strength of schedule, though. Come on, come on. No, no, I, oh, like, like, I.

Totally agree, however, because I would say, like, we all know this, right? Like, I think as soon as you have turnover, I think there's an element of regression, right? Like you're starting back over. It's a new system potentially on both sides of the ball, all three phases of the ball, right? Like, I, I think any time to get to an advanced level of something, right, it just takes time. You got to build a foundation. You got to build this like, you know, wealth of knowledge. And so for some reason, both these owners, though, think that they're right, that's not the case, that they're going to flip these around and be winners immediately.

To me, it's just like a definition of success issue, right? If the only thing that success is one thing, which is winning the super bowl, right? It's actually quite difficult because I'm gonna, I'm gonna preach some of Brother Badier's language here, but there's so much variance, there's so much chance, there's so much stuff that's actually not in your control when the only definition is, do you win this one game? Right? And I think if you just kind of imagine like making a decision to optimize for that and thinking that you're gonna control it by doing this. On the coaching thing, you just have, like, a false precision to your thinking. Like, just zoom out for a second. I know this is a silly example, but it's just the first one that came to mind. Imagine you're a parent, and now you decide that your kid needs to go to one particular school for college. Like, they have to go to this school. That is a really bad idea for so many reasons, right? Because, like, the definition of success is super narrow. Obviously, there's all the pressure, but almost like, leave that to the side. But there's just a lot of chance. Even if the kid is qualified, it's just. There's just a lot of chance that's going to go into it and you're making it where, like, there's a bunch of stuff that's out of your control that's going to determine whether or not the goal happens, you know, And I think the maybe it's like, to me, I think of definition of success being too narrow, and I think of, like, illusion of control. It's almost like I just want to do something, you know, I want to make something happen. And the interesting thing, to me, at least on the coaching thing, and again, like, I'm like, know way less about the NFL than you guys do. But it's also like they compare it as if they're going to go get, you know, the best coach in the world, when in fact they're just going to pick from one of the other ones. Like, the NFL coaching carousel is insane. It's the same coaches that just keep moving around, you know, like one man's trash, another man's treasure. So that's like, where my brain goes. And I think it's like, much broader than just the NFL. But I would agree with you, Alex, of, like, the John Harbaugh one, I kind of get a little bit more. And that, like, maybe the. The message has grown a little tired. Maybe the fresh start is good. The Bills one, I'm kind of like, you guys are just. You're just kind of grasping, you know.

And it's no different in the business world, right? Like, if you were on a board and you have goals and expectations and like, you just don't ever see this turnover. There's like. Like you do in sports, and I think especially football, for whatever reason, football, I think, has more turnover at the head coaching job than. Than other sports.

Well, don't you. Don't you think so much of it is at every level Right? From the equipment manager to the players, to the coaching staff to the front office to the owners, people always want to prove their worth, and they want to prove that by changing the dynamic somehow that you're doing something. I remember, you know, reminded of the meme where there's a guy with a stick, he pokes something, do something, do something. And like, inaction has become a proxy for just complacency, right? And look, I come from the extreme opposite of that. Playing for the Miami Heat for three years, working for them for five. Still an advisor to the, to the franchise there. I would argue across the four major professional sports, there is no franchise that has more consistency and just a cultural backbone than the Miami Heat. They talk about Heat culture, right? And there are downsides to that, obviously, but, like, for the most part, like, every single year, you know, you know what you're going to get from the Miami Heat, right? And there's been, you know, five championships in the last. You know, how many, you know, four championships in the last, I mean, 20, 25 years. The most championships in. In the NBA over that time period. And so, like, as much as. As I was as director of analytics, trying to change things, like, we knew we had a shot to win every single year, and that was great. You look at Mike Tomlin, I mean, I. Which we haven't even talked about Mike Tomlin, 19 years and never had a losing season. Never had a losing season. They were in the playoff hunt for 19 straight years and they were calling for his head.

Chanting, fire.

Chanting. I hope Pittsburgh gets what they. What they want. I hope they do. I am praying that they bring in the most, you know, opposite from Mike Tomlin, and they have to live. You know what? The Detroit Lions have had to live for the last 40 years. All right? I cannot wait for that. That's what I'm hoping for.

As a fan.

Shout out Pittsburgh. Shout out Pittsburgh.

You bring up such a great point. I think, like, so even from a fan perspective, okay, are you happy? Tomlin, a great example, just hasn't had a losing season. You're always there. You're always going to be in the playoffs, right? But, like, certainly the last several runs have. I don't know how many in a row they lost. Are you happy that your organization is like, again, this whole, like, swing for the fences? I think bust.

I think they are.

You think you are. So if you're a Buffalo Bills fan, you're right. We got Josh Allen in his prime. Whatever.

They have no context. They have no context.

I agree.

No idea what being a lottery team means. They have no idea. Pinning your hopes on the fifth pick, hoping that this is the savior that's going to push you over the top. Like Buffalo and Baltimore both had. They've been put to sleep by the amazing amount of success and that has made them complacent and they think that they are one move away from winning championship and it doesn't work like that. It doesn't work like that. Like you have to, you know, aside from the Miami Heat adding shame Battiers, they're, you know, they're grab the bench. Very few teams are one move away, one small move away from winning the championship. One less a major move like changing coaches. It doesn't happen like that.

I would add another one that I think is one move away. I personally think the Broncos should have been calling our man know brother Smith for, for this week's playoff game. But that would have been, that would have been, that's the one move away.

From my been crazy.

But the reason that's such a good hot take is your leg is stronger than it was five years ago and.

You came back five years older.

I don't know. Just saying leg is stronger. Anyway, the reason Shane, I think the fans are happy with this is I think what those people are selling them as hope. And it might be hopium, you know, it might be, it might be fake, but it's like I think all the fans are, they don't want to be stagnant, you know. And it's like this. I don't think the fans appreciate just like consistently being pretty good, you know. Like, I think what, what they, they're. And it's short term. Like it's short term, it's the hope. But like I think that these guys are, they're selling hope right now, you.

Know, like within whatever optimizing for like what are we trying to sell tickets and jerseys or are we actually trying to win a Super Bowl? I get your Argum. I actually agree with that.

I, I actually think, Sorry, I, I, I should be more clear. I believe that these owners are trying to win a Super Bowl. However, I think they are overestimating how much influence they have through the methods within their control of like changing the coach of doing that. And I think that they are wrong in making these changes. So for sure, I was just saying, I think that the separate question of like, do the fans like it? I do think that a lot of fans like it for the change because they don't have context of what the downside looks like, nor do they really have context on, like, who the alternative coach would be. Like, you know, when you hear. Think about anybody, when they. They're like, oh, we should get this coach. Like, they always say they should get like, the greatest. They should get like, Vince Lombardi. Right. Like, the idea is that they're going to get somebody who is amazing. And the reality of it is, like, no, you're going to just get one of the carousel of coaches that's already there.

Who these teams hire is going to obviously, like, dictate how we look at this in. In hindsight. Right. And I think to that point, like, it's one thing to know if you've got an upgrade.

Right?

Like, totally one thing to know if you know you're going to hire. And maybe a couple of these GMs do, but, you know, these are premier spots now, both these teams that we just talked about, Baltimore and Buffalo, obviously, with the quarterbacks they have, and so they're highly sought after. But I just go back, like, I, I can't help but thinking, I think you hit the nail on the head, this illusion of control. Right. Like, owners can't help but tinker. Right. Like, you actually, again, none of them really have football backgrounds. Right. Like, yeah, they own the thing. And, you know, everybody ultimately reports to them. And like, you can't help but think, like, what can I do?

Yes, yes to.

And this is one of the main things they can do is like, fire and hire head coaches and presidents and GMs. However, I just go back to, like, you what, one. One play away from beating the one seed.

Yeah.

You know, again, took him to overtime on the road. Right. Like, how, how many plays away do you think you were from actually winning the super bowl if you're Buffalo, Like, a couple, like, the margin.

Yes.

Of how they finished this year to actually winning the Super Bowl.

Yes.

It's so small and again, a lot of it luck and things that are out of their control, but, like, they weren't many little moves away from, like, all of a sudden, again, totally the ultimate prize.

And yet it's, It's. It's a make miss league, right. Everything's a make miss league, right. We. We play Boston, you know, down 3, 2 in the 2012, you know, NBA Eastern Conference Finals. You know, we have to go to Boston. If we win that game. Look, the big three never happen again, right? They trade LeBron. They trade, you know, Chris Bosh. I, you know, all of us have new homes, but LeBron goes out, scores 45. We beat them win game seven, going to win the championship, and all of a sudden, you know, oh yeah, of course. Like one of the greatest teams of all time. Like if LeBron has a bad game and off game that game. The course of history has changed, right? And so we lose, we lose, we lose perspective over. Over one game, one play that can change the alter the course of sports history.

The reason this doesn't happen in the business world for the right is remember, boards are diffuse. It's not one person that decides, right? You got to get nine people to agree largely on something, you know, that's one. And I think the second thing is the definition of success is different and broader, right? Like, it's not even just the stock price, right? Like you can imagine there's all these reasons that like, let's say the stock price is going okay, but it's not going great. It's like, oh, okay. Well, relative to our peer group, like there's. It's just a much less clean. You know, there's no equivalent to like, it's hard to find an exact equivalent like winning the Super Bowl.

Can you. Can you give me an example, Robbie? Both on the upside and the downside of a company that's been. Was. Was pretty good historically. Okay, maybe not great. They make a change at the top and they. They become the market leader and or, you know, lose a ton of market share because they think are too much anything come. Come to mind the store.

Yes, yes, yes, man. Shane, like setting me up so I can spike this thing. Okay, so there's an amazing company called ServiceNow, right? Amazing company. I think it's like a $200 billion plus market cap. And ServiceNow has this history of putting in unbelievable CEOs after their founder, all of whom have had these Fantastic runs as CEO. So the founder of ServiceNow is a guy named Fred Luddy. Fred Letty is a brilliant entrepreneur, right? And he took it to maybe just on the cusp of going public mid single digit billions and you know, from nothing. And did it, did it profitably. Like legend Fred Letty at some point meets Frank Slootman. You know, someone that, you know, we all know Frank Slipman, like a legendary CEO. And at the time, Frank Slootman was still like legendary, but like maybe small l. Legendary rather than capital. And Fred Letty meets him. And he meets him actually through Douglioni. He meets him. He's sort of like this guy for the next stage of what we got would actually be better than me. And Slootman takes this thing to Crazy heights. Crazy heights. But it like built on what Luddy had done as the founder, Slootman takes it. I don't know what the market cap is, but maybe to 50 or to 75 or something. Next CEO John Donahoe, someone that we all know also, also does a great job. Frank hand picks him. Amazing CEO. When John leaves, he puts in Bill McDermott, another person that we sort of know. Bill McDermott, new, new, new heights. So ServiceNow is like the unbelievable example of like the right time of leadership changes the right person for the right moment. Great.

Sounds like a great glue guy sponsor, by the way.

ServiceNow, if you're listening, you know, Jim, if you're listening, we're ready for you. So the second, but then the flip side chain, there's, there's tons of examples of this. Like you'll just see like, you know, this company's had 8 CEOs in 10 years this company has had, you know, and they just are rotating them through and it never gets better. Right. And how much of it is this leader not being the right leader versus the board being impatient? It's always hard to know. Right. Some of it is just like it's actually hard to make big changes in the public markets. Right. You know, we talk about impatient fan bases. One of the things that's very interesting is your shareholder base is either patient or impatient, you know, and your shareholder base based on what they think of the leadership often is deterministic of how patient they are.

Right.

People are much more patient with Jensen Huang at Nvidia. Right. Founder, CEO has done amazing things than they are with a hired CEO of a company that maybe hasn't had that. And you know, it's very hard to make any long term investments. So I think there's argue, there's, there's stories on both sides that are very clear in the business world. But it is very rare that the, to have the service now like thing. But it's, it's transformative when it happens.

Do the ends justify the means here? Alex, this is what I'm so, so, so does the new coach of Buffalo, does the new coach of Pittsburgh, does the new Baltimore. Do they have to win a Super bowl for this move to be justified or also what are we doing here?

Yeah, yeah, like, and obviously we'll look. I mean we could look back on this in a couple years and I mean definitively no. Right. Like, yeah, both of these moves by again, all I. Both, all three of these moves and actually glad you brought up the Steelers because it is this is an ownership that is notoriously been the most patient, right? I mean they've had three head coaches for like the last 70, 80 years, right? Like, but it was a fan base that I think really drove Mike Tomlin potentially to stepping down and the fans chanting fire him. It just, it's crazy, right? Like not having a lose losing season. But all three of those. Look at the roles you're stepping into, right? Like the bar that the. Your pres. Your. Your predecessor set, obviously pretty high again, like you're taking the Buffalo job. The head coach just got fired. Losing an overtime after one seed, by the way. To your point, Shane, I couldn't agree more. It's a make or miss league. Like if Brandon Cooks catches that ball.

Yeah.

Sean McDermott is coaching. They win the game. He's still the head coach of Buffalo Bills and we're probably singing his praises.

They're going to Super Bowl. They're gonna be, they're gonna be denverb.

And it's. He doesn't hold on to gets ruled interception, he's fucking fired, right? Like it's crazy if, if Josh doesn't fumble before halftime and they give him the three free, three points, they win the game, right? Like again, it's one play, it's super bowl or bus, without a doubt. And in four years we may look back and be like, God, all of Buffalo. And you're right, like all of Pittsburgh, maybe. God, I wish we had Mike Tomlin back. Right? God, it was really. Do you Remember those Sean McDermott days? They were so nice. We were going to playoff games, right? Like, we were, we were good, dude. I, that's like. I honestly, I wonder that like, the interesting thing is there is one team in the NFL that operates like a public company and it's the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay packers, right?

They're owned. They're publicly basically owned. They're owned by the, you know, they have a board that elects a president, right? Like they, they work like this and I do think they practice far more patience. You don't see as much turnover there. You don't see, see, you don't even see these like crazy for agent signings and stuff, right? Like, they just kind of take a longer term approach, I think, right? Like it's a little more steady as we go kind of thing, right?

Ironically enough, Alex, this is the thing that's so crazy. Ironically enough, in, in my world, right, the longer term you are, the more likely you are to be private. Think about it, right? Because like you don't have a daily Mark, like football or sports is actually the craziest version of the public markets, right? Every day there is crazy attention on you that you're moving up or down stock, whatever the equivalent of your stock price is. Totally. You're measured every week, publicly, in a binary fashion, right? Like, it's crazy. You have earnings every week, right. I mean, it's insane. One of the big reasons the Collison brothers want to stay private is they're like, we want to make long term decisions, right? We don't want to be dealing with, you know, external feedback that we don't choose all the time. Like, I actually think genuinely we talk about this all the time, but it's like, what game are you playing? Part of that is also how do you want to be measured, right? And I think that I will tell you, like, it is an incredible positive, I think, to be able to be measured on a longer term time horizon, to make decisions with a longer term time horizon, you know, and this is why it is just easier to be long term when you don't have to deal with external results every minute, you know? Like, it's hard, I can tell, like, look, just to empathize. It's hard, always hard to empathize with an owner. But, you know, if you're an owner and you're dealing with, like, the fan base every day, do something, do something, do something, do something. I can imagine why they, like, feel this pressure to make a change rather than like, no, no, no. Like, keep it as it is because you're dealing with this crazy feedback loop that's in your face every moment.

How much have the Hunt family messed it up for everybody, right? The Kansas City Chiefs, they. They have had a chance to win the super bowl every year, the last decade.

Yeah, that's.

So all of a sudden, that is like the bar that, you know, you know, Biscotti is looking at and all the other owners, like, yeah, I, you know, and I think that's the one part that, you know, that you and your brothers and sisters in the media don't talk about. It's not just winning one Super Bowl. These people want to win a Super bowl every year or at least have a chance to win a Super bowl and be Jerry Jones, right?

The crazy thing is, I'm so glad you brought that up because actually, like, the great. If you were to look at this from an analysis standpoint, like, think about the Philadelphia Eagles and Andy Reid, like one of the. I mean, the greatest offensive young minds in football, this phenomenal head coach, they're going to the playoffs every single year, right? They, how many NFC championship games did they go to with McNabb, right, like, but couldn't win a Super Bowl. They fire the man, right? Like this incredible. Like he was insanely successful, right? Again, playoffs every year, division titles. They fire him, right? Because it's kind of this Super Bowler bust mentality, you know, Obviously Kansas City immediately hires him and goes. I mean it just like the fortunes of that franchise, you know, if you go back, I think he's been there 12 years now. Like they had the number one pick in the draft. They were the worst team in football. And look at the success he's driven and you know, and all the. How much stability they have. Philly though, may, right, they may not say, like, we made the right move. They've won two Super Bowls since then, right, with two different head coaches. Now they've churned through a bunch of head coaches. I think they've had four or five since they fired Andy, but still have hoisted two Lombardi's.

But Shane, I actually think you're totally right. I really. I actually think what you just said is a very important point, which is the standard is not even just one super bowl. The standard is even higher than that. And in a. Just to like channel some Sam Hinkey here, It's crazy, right? 32 teams in the league. It's a zero sum thing, right? Like there's only so many wins available literally per year, right? And you either take one from someone else, like you can't. Like there's no abundance here. And the game is designed to have parity. Like they want to have as much parody as possible. So everything fights against you to be a dynasty. And so the idea of like the standard being not just once, but every year being in the hunt is. I mean, just mathematically, it's extraordinarily unlikely, right? Truly extraordinarily unlikely. And then you take that old Munger quote of it. It's like, it's not greed that drives the world, it's envy. Like, the real thing, like you said, is probably people feeling like, well, what has he got that. What do they have that I don't have? You know, and they're used to winning at everything because that's how they got to be fricking owners of these teams. I think I hadn't thought about that. But like, it's like they are destined to be deeply unhappy. They are destined to turn the levers and knobs because what they want is mathematically so improbable.

Go back to Sam. Okay, so when Sam gets to Philadelphia, you know, he lays out a plan. You know, I was reading an article about it somewhere where he said, look, you know, hey, Philadelphia, do you want to win one championship or do you want to win multiple championships? And of course, the rational answer is, no, I want to. Because Sam said, look, because the paths are very, very different. Do not get them confused, okay? You can burn the ships, you can, you know, burn all your draft capital and go all in, and you could put together a super team for one year and make it worth and have a good chance of taking it down. But that's not sustainable, obviously, right, because you lose draft picks. But if you want to win in multiple years, that requires a completely different path. And of course, Philadelphia says, no, we want to win every year. Why wouldn't we want to parade every year, okay? Know that there's much more pain associated with that route. The upside is great, but the pain is great. And so the process was launched, right? And the process was great until it wasn't until the pressure became too much that they hit the eject button on the process and, like, was working.

Oklahoma City basically got to do some version of it, right? And they got to do it because they have less external feedback, partly because they're in Oklahoma City, right? But the other thing that's crazy is just to go back to your point on, like, how likely certain things are. Let's say you put together a super team, okay? True super team. If you really look at, like, the probability distribution of you winning in the year of super team, it still is not above 50%. There's no way, because there's just so much stuff. Is it 20%? Whatever it is, whatever the number is, it ain't 50. Okay, cool. So nobody really wants to hear that. But the real thing is, like, well, even then, you're, like, way more likely than not not to win, and you've mortgaged everything, and then the next one of, like, okay, well, what are the chances that you're in the hunt every year? Even that that percentage over a long period of time goes up, but maybe that's 40% or 45%. Nothing gets you to the 80 or 90 or 100 that you want because there's too much uncertainty and variance in the freaking game, you know, like, by nature, it's in there. Like, one of the things that's crazy, the Broncos number one seed at home, the dude breaks his ankle in the. You know, I'm saying third to last play, and all of a sudden you go from like, I was with some, like, crazy Broncos fans on Saturday. I was at the game, they go, and they're so pumped. They're so happy. Oh, my God, Super Bowl. And then all of a sudden, it's just gone. And it's gone on one play, you know, and now they're talking themselves into Jarrett Stedum, you know, like, it's crazy a lot here.

First off, how many times did you chant incomplete? Were you a part of it?

Of course.

If you weren't learned it. Thanks. You told me.

Fuck you if you were. Right. Nothing worse. Nothing worse than being the opposing quarterback at Denver and then fucking chanting incomplete. Listen, I was there every time.

I was trying to fit in, okay? You're playing for something that is mathematically unlikely, you know, and then you want to do a bunch of shit to change it. And then the bonix thing to me is just another example of, like, the Broncos have done so much stuff, right? But it's just another example of, like, the, the how unlikely it is for things to break your way. Like, dude, if. If my Bears, if my Bears had won last week, right? Think about the play that they would have won on effectively was a 40 yard drop back Hail Mary into the end zone. Like, can you imagine how devastating it would have been for the Rams to lose because of that? Like, it's just. There's just a lot of randomness, I think, is the point. And it's hard.

I. I guess on that note, regardless of who wins the super bowl this year, right? And, and I think, therefore, like, from an external standpoint, we should say is the best coach in football, which I don't necessarily think that means year in and year out, right? Like, I, again, I think, like, what Kyle Shanahan did this year, given everything that happened to the Niners, was remarkable, right? Like them going to Philly and winning. Like, when you compare those two rosters that took the field today, like, that there were no comparisons. And so again, though, I think we get lulled into this, right? Like, and we do lose context. And again, it is obviously like a zero sum thing. And I think you're very. I think you're right on, though. Like, the, the. When I do think about the Hunts and Clark Hunt, right, Who runs the Chiefs, they go to these owners meetings every year, right? And I can guarantee he's got all his rings on. Yeah, right. And they're right. And, you know, he walks in a little taller, right? Like, you know what I'm saying? And you know, these guys are competitive, right? These families are competitive, right? Like, they don't get in these positions to not be. And so I do think that that adds to this, these irrational decisions. I think you're very right about this. Right? Like that. That is a small room. They've known each other for a long, long time. They're hyper competitive people and they do irrational things. Right.

The harsh reality of professional sports and the harsh reality of being hired as a CEO of any company is the same for parenthood. All right? The second that you're hired, the clock is ticking for you to get fired. Okay? The second the ink dries, the clock has started for you to. One day someone says, I no longer need your services. Okay?

You're talking about parenthood. Oh, God.

Well, parenthood. The best you can hope for in parenthood is you are the CEO of your children growing up, okay? You are the boss. At some point they are going to fire you and say, I do not need you to be my CEO anymore. I got it. But the best you can hope for as a parent is they hire you back as a special advisor.

Yeah.

And so you always have a seat at the table and can help them, but you're no longer the boss of them. It's going to happen. It happens to all of us. Okay? I think that's. I think that's an eloquent way you hope you could hire back as a special advisor for your kids. Okay? If you don't, then you really messed up. But your kids are going to fire you someday, okay? It is no different than being a coach in this or CEO that the second the ink dries under contract, the clock is ticking for you to someone say, hey, you know what? We no longer need your services. You know, the best case scenario is, hey, we'd love for you to be an advisor to the board. We'd love you to stay around as an advisor. That's the best. That's the best you can hope for. And along the way, you win some games, maybe a championship, you develop some relationships, you have a few yucks. But that's the inevitability of these roles. And like, if. If you understand that, like, you can.

Take it, but that's where. And you know, just to go back to you, Shane, this is where I think that, like, I think if you see Saban, you see Signetti, you see some of these guys, I think what they ultimately come back to is like, process. We need to get better every day. We need to make the right play. We have to do things in a certain fashion. And that's what we can measure. Right. And then the results will be what they're going to be. I think that the. The people that kind of, like, elevate above the game almost, they, like, realize that it's about that. And then they also do have amazing results, but it's not going to be every year. Right? Like, but they do have amazing results. And I think that that's where, like, a big takeaway I have here is in parenting, you know, one, you want to get fired, of course, at the right time and get rehired. I think that's a good analogy, a very good analogy. But I think the other thing is you have to have a broader definition of success. Yes. Right. And you have to value the inputs a lot. Right? You have to focus on, like, are you working on them becoming a better person? Are they. You know what I'm saying? Because I. Can you imagine how terrible it would be if you narrow the definition of success for your kid? You know, like how Stanford.

Stanford, Duke or Harvard. Everything else totally.

And, like, doing it even for yourself as a parent. But I think that there's that. Then the second thing is I have. Alex, you're gonna laugh at this, but I think that, you know how there's all this talk about, like, AGI, you know, like, what's going to happen when AGI comes along? I actually think we already know. Okay, you wanna know why? You ready? I'm gonna blow your mind. All right, so AGI, people talk about it's gonna come and everyone's gonna have abundance, right? There's just. If that happens, everyone's going to have a lot. And it's like, what are we going to do? I actually think professional sports owners are like, a reasonably good proxy for what's going to happen when the world has AGI. So think about. All these people have more money than God, okay? Like, they've already. They got all of it. And what do they choose to do? They choose to compete in a game that we all created. Human. Created game. And they choose to compete vigorously against each other in this game. And it matters to them so much. Even though we just made it up and even though they've already have everything in their life, they have all the money in the world, they have all the professional success now. The thing that matters to them is getting as many rings. Another thing we made up, shiny thing. As some person that they didn't even know existed before they became owners in the league. Like, none of the other owners knew who Clark Hunt was prior to, like, being an NFL owner, like, they don't care. But now all of a sudden the most important thing in the world is having more shiny rings than Clark Hunt. They found a new purpose and it's like their central purpose in their life. And I think that like, they have found a new thing to make them stressed and to make them have purpose and it's competing against other humans in a made up game. And like, I think we already know what's going to happen when AGI comes along. That's my, that's my take.

Okay? I, this is a. I'm gonna revert back. I'm. I'm not gonna touch you. I'm not touching the AI stuff. However. Okay, on this note, you mentioned, I, you mentioned again, like the Oklahoma City Thunder, right? Very small market. That may be the technique of. Remind me their GM's name again.

Sam Preston Presti.

Right. Like the, the, the several years that were, were really lean and tough, right? Yeah, yeah, A lot like that. You can take severe pain and get to where they are and that you can play a long game maybe because there is less external noise, right? And I compare that to the New York market, right? And not just basketball here, but I'm flipping to football. And you guys know this, right? Like, we're more noise than any other American market by far, right? So when you think about the jets and the Giants, I don't know if you guys know this. They built MetLife Stadium, I think in like 2010, right? This is like it's 15 years old. Both teams play there. It hosts both teams. Do you know how many playoff games have been played in MetLife Stadium?

No.

In its life? One. One. Okay, think about that. And like, is that a coincidence? Right? Like is the dysfunction of the New York organization. This is a good conversation of the market size, right? Like it is. It's noisy there, right? Like it is. And that's putting it politely. Like, it is freaking hard there. You can't practice patience. You can't play the long game. You have more turnover. Think about all the head coaches and quarterbacks these organizations have just like mowed through. And again, I think about the jets, right? Like this. I mean, man, to be a Jets fan, the last several decades has been rough. They would give anything for what Buffalo had, right? Like for what the Ravens had, for certainly what Pittsburgh had.

Well, you know, I push back on that. Like, look, Boston and Philly, that ain't. That ain't no cupcake either now. Okay? You know, you know, the, the noise isn't maybe as voluminous but it is pretty loud in Boston, no doubt, you know, and Belichick's obviously a unicorn and what he did for. For, you know, a decade plus. And. But Philly has won Super Bowls. And so it comes down to, like, do you have good management? Do you run a good operation? Right.

Well, how much of this ownership, right. Like, you think about Robert Kraft, right? Like, if he does it again here, right. If he just hit with Mike Vrabel and Drake May, and it's like, here we go again, you know, again, you just had Belichick Brady. You just had this insane run. How many owners have been able to do it twice? I don't know of any, especially in the football world, that have, like, been able to, you know, do that. Philly with Jeffrey Lurie, right? Like, again, like, certainly Howie Roseman. They've had a lot of stability at the top there. And. And, yeah, you're right, Right. Like, there's a monster markets, right? They're. They're right there with New York. So I don't know.

No, but it is a good. Okay, so, Shane, I agree with you, and I think it's a good response, but I still think there's something interesting in what you said on New York. So let me. Let me try it for a second. I think the interesting thing was, like, there's all these benefits of being in a big market, right? Like, people want to come. You know, One of the things that's interesting is, like, I think, like, and I. I know more about the NBA than I do with the NFL. But, like, you know, there are markets that people want to go to and play in, right? Because they want to live there. And so there's this enormous benefit of, like, more players want to live in New York, tax notwithstanding, than they do in Oklahoma City in a vacuum, right? And so there's this enormous benefit that comes along with that of being able to recruit, whether it's coaches or players, I would suspect, in any major sport, right? So that helps a lot. No, you don't think so, Shane?

I don't think people want to live in New York.

You don't think.

You think they want to live in la?

I do not. I do not give it everything. Basketball players would rather live somewhere warm, more tax friendly. So. Yeah, but when's the last time the Knicks had a major Utah Jazz?

Like, how many stars stay in Salt Lake? They like, hey, I want to go to a big market. I want to be. I want to be on a Nike commercial.

Like, I'm gonna go play similar to Similar to New York. Every major player they've had, they've had a trade there.

Who.

Yeah, they're good. New York, New York, you know, those guys like Brunson, he's great. You know, they stay. But it's not, it's not as desirable as Texas or Florida or California.

But I still think the point remains, which is that there are some positives to being in a big market, right? Let's just like broadly say some positives. But I do think the point you're making, Alex, and this is true for Boston and Philly too, there's also this huge negative of like how much feedback you get. And there's also like the negative of you think you can do a quick fix. Do you see what I'm saying? Because you have the ability to do a quick fix because you can like use money to solve your problem. And this is something actually that is true for sure in business too. For sure. Which is a lot of times the constraint is actually helpful.

Right.

The fact that you can't use money to solve your problem at a company means you have to build a better product because you can't just go and like, I'm going to use, I'm going to buy my way out of this. Right? And so there's only one path out and it is the path of sort of like the longer term compounding path, you know, Like Oklahoma City, I don't think has a path of like super team path, you know what I'm saying? It's actually harder to do. So it is kind of interesting because, like, Shane, I agree with you that like Philly and Boston have managed to do a good job despite having this like crazy feedback loop. But it's like they've resisted the temptation to do it through. They've resisted the temptation to do it in kind of a hacky way. Like one of the things the Knicks have done for so long, right? Prior to maybe this generation of team, they just kept on trying to like immediately solve the problem without going through any of the pain, you know. And I do think that's an interesting lesson of like, maybe there's no shortcuts to this thing, you know? And like the real lesson is like, you have to do it the right way, you know? And if you want to have any sort of sustained success like Pittsburgh did.

For 19 straight years.

I think so. I think so.

Too soon. Sorry.

The interesting thing to think about, like Buffalo.

Like Buffalo, the last decade. Too soon. My bad. My bad. Yes. This is what we're talking about. What are we talking about we're trying to do it the right way. And the whole point of this conversation is franchises have done them for a very long time. The right way are now feeling that is not the path. So where does that lead us? Like that. That's the original thesis of this whole show, which is like you just throw your hands up and say, what are we doing here, folks? What are we doing?

I agree. I think they've lost perspective.

Yeah.

I think completely lost perspective. Their own success has worked against them and their fan bases and their owners and the organization included have lost perspective.

Yeah. And I think the thing, Alex, that I would say is like, I think the reason that's interesting is because it is true in football. And I think, dude, like any of us could look around and I think it's true for a lot of people that I would observe to be successful that they've lost perspective in their life. Right. And that they, they, they all of a sudden are going for quick fix answers rather than the thing that made them successful in the first place. But I think that this is, this is, you know, societally relevant. It's not just football.

Well, no, it's the same, it's human nature. By the way, this is the same thing that at the beginning of the conversation when, like, how many walk away on top. It's the same reason you can't step away from the blackjack table when you're winning. Right. Like, it just, you just, you don't think.

But there's going to, again, to your point, it's, it's, it's, it's all a normal curve. There are going to be some successes and that skews our perception of like randomness and true probability when, you know, when Saban pulls, you know, Jalen hurts for tua tug of viola in the national championship game. Right. And it works out and they're champions. Nick Saban is a genius. Oh my gosh. He's got so much courage and innovation. He saw this ahead of time. Like, that is like a, A, a very, very small outcome. And you know, and he profited from that. Right. That, that's a major change that worked out. And so now everyone kind of skews the probabilities in their head that, oh, I, you know, I'm going to be that, I'm going to be that, that 5% person. Right?

Totally.

Isn't that part of it?

Totally. Yes, yes, for sure. Because everybody, we have like survivorship bias.

For sure.

Right. You know, big deal. And the other thing is we, we don't have the long enough duration. Look, you know, one of the things again that's interest. The thing that's crazy on professional sports also guys, is like the injury possibility is really like changes percentages a lot because even if somebody is really good, like they might not have the career that they possibly could have. Not because they didn't work hard or anything, but just like some massive injury, you know, comes in. And then the other thing is you guys are, it's fixed in a certain amount of time, you know, like Alex, you talked about this like you, it would not out of the realm of possibility that you were out of the league right prior to the time where you ended up with the best part of your career. Do you see what I'm saying? Like and think about how crazy that is. Like it was proven that you were obviously very good at the job because you ended up, you know, playing for a long time and being a Pro Bowler and you know, being in the MVP conversation, whatever. However, it is like super plausible that it never happened and all people ever knew of you in the NFL was that you like played for a few years and then you are out. Like that is. That is very strange because your duration could have been short enough where people didn't even get an accurate view of you, you know.

Yeah. Think about Sam Darnold. I mean he just had back to back 14 win seasons. Do you know the only other quarterback to ever do that in the history of the NFL is. And mind you, Sam Darnold did it with two different teams in back to back years.

Right.

Like Brady is the only other quarterback.

Yeah, crazy.

Like think about. It's not, it's not Patrick, right. It's not Josh Allen, it's not Lamar, it's not John Elway, it's not Johnny Unitis. Sam Darnold, who again goes to New York, a noisy place, right? Like 20 year old kid thrown out there in the spotlight. It's hard, right? He bounces around to how many teams he's a backup in the league, his career's done. And, and to think what he became I think is remarkable. It also, I think it's remarkable Eli Manning's up for the hall of Fame, right? Like there's, I think a lot of people debate whether or not he's a Hall of Famer and I do think what he did in New York, given the gravity of, of being the number one pick, his name like going and being the two time super bowl champ in mvp like I, I think context is important in his career and I think New York being a part of that is why he is a Hall of Famer. Right. And I think, like, and.

And a glue guy guest. We just want to.

Yeah, yeah.

We want to be positive on those guys.

Eli, Alex, I have a question for you. So how do you think about the change in coordinators versus the change at up top of the head coach? Okay, because let's be honest, the head coaches aren't calling players for the most part, right. They're. They're more organizers, they're operators, they're. They're collaborators versus actual, the actual people calling the plays on offense, calling the plays on defense. Obviously, when you change head coaches, you get all new coordinators and there's not as much continuity between offensive systems. You know, Justin Herbert gets, you know, Mike McDaniels next year, you know, and so a brand new system. So, like, can you suss out. Oh, it was. We had bad coordinators versus it was. It was a cultural problem with the. The guy leading the coordinators at the top. Right. So how do you, how do you think about that and changing it and does it matter or is it still always start with the head coach?

Well, there's. There's two types of head coaches in the NFL, and so one is John Harbaugh, who you just, you just said he is an executive. He was a longtime special teams coach. He does not coordinate any of the three phases anymore. Right. Like, very much an executive team culture, puts his staff together. Right. Like, again, there's obviously a lot of accountability, but certainly he's in the. He's the boss, he's the CEO and runs it like that, like an executive. But then you have a lot of very. I mean, Kyle Shanahan is the offensive coordinator and play caller. Right. Like Andy Reid, offensive coordinator, play caller. Ben Johnson just got hired in Chicago because of this.

Right.

Like, he still calls the plays. Sean McVeigh, again, shout out.

Let's go.

Yeah, and all those guys who are phenomenal, right? And like, I think are so good.

All the guys, all the guys who got fired were executives, correct? There wasn't one play caller amongst that group.

So, like, like Mike Tomlin kind of had become an executive, right. Like, obviously started on the defensive side but was no longer calling plays. And, and I, I think, you know, in that standpoint, Sean McDermott, same.

Yep. Yeah.

Same standpoint the guys were talking about. And so I think very dependent on their staffs and very dependent upon, like, availability. Right. Like, again, like, who's even available, right. Like John Harbaugh as He builds his staff, right? Like, you can't just go poach necessarily. A lateral move, right? Like that can get blocked. So it's like, who's even available? Who doesn't have a job right now? Who can I go find as a young assistant and maybe pull up into one of these roles? I think is tough. I think when I think about the Sean McVay's, Kyle Shanahan's, Andy Reid's of the world, right? Like they've got their half, right, like taken care of again. They're the best at what they do. Like, I got offense, right? And I do think about when Steve Spagnolo got hired in Kansas City, right? Like, who's a phenomenal defensive coordinator and Andy Reid can just let him go do that over there, right? Like I don't even have to touch defense because I've got a guy that was a former head coach, multiple super bowl champ that can just run the defense. Things changed in Kansas City, right? Like drastically. We looked at Kyle Shanahan, like, think about the defensive coordinators when he had Robert Salah, like this year, even in the past when he had Dimiko, Ryan's like a ton of success, right? Like when you've got somebody you can trust that runs that side of the ball. So it's a little. It is different, right? And I think when obviously you're still a coordinator, you're less dependent again, you just really need to worry about the other side of the ball.

I don't know what the right answer is. I have a particular affinity for the people that also are the play caller. You know what I'm saying? I think that it's cool to be right now. One of the things that's interesting that's happening in the business world is as AI is becoming more important, there's a higher value on the CEO who knows how to do things, rather than the CEO who just knows how to delegate. Like there. There is value to being closer to the metal right now than there was in the past because the technology is changing so fast.

So maybe the specific on the production side or like the. The leading side or. Or what?

Yeah. I think that in technology companies, because things are changing so quickly in like the capabilities of the technology. There is value right now in the CEO being able to be conversant with the young people who are closest to what the newest technologies can do, right? Because they are the ones who have kind of are most familiar with what the new technology can do because they play around with it a lot. And right now I think that the CEOs that are most effective are ones that are going and kind of spending a lot of time with those folks, even if they're much older, right? Like Satya Nadella, one of the big things he's doing incredibly well is, like, spending a lot of time with very young people to understand what are they doing, what are their new workflows, rather than just kind of like, staying up at the top and, you know, giving direction and advice. And the only thing I was thinking about is, I don't know how this applies to professional sports, but at this moment in technology, there's kind of a resurgence of, you know, the CEO who's in the details, you know, much more.

So I think it's more sustainable. I think it's more sustainable, right? Like, again, I think about. If you do have success and all these companies happen, like, the first thing you do is you get poached, right? Like, I think any. Any of these other businesses or owners that want to emulate what you have.

Yeah.

Will poach. Poach it, right? Like, and I think that's true in business and sports. And so, like, how many. I think of, like, how many assistants Sean McVeigh has lost over the years because, like, everybody wants a piece of that, right? Like, so, like, Zach Taylor is his offensive coordinator. He gets hired When Cincinnati, like LaFleur, is his coordinator, he gets hired in Green Bay. Like, everybody wants a piece of this. But the fact that Sean McVeigh essentially is the offensive coordinator makes it sustainable and is why they are on top despite getting poached. And now, it's funny, like, I mean, apparently, if you've gotten Sean McVeigh coffee, like, you get interviews for offensive coordinator jobs, right? Like, if you just even have his contact in your phone, right? Like, all of a sudden, you know, like, everybody. He's that sought after. And again, I think of, like, John Harbaugh and you, like, flashback, a couple years ago, the Baltimore Ravens had the number one defense in the NFL, right? Like, they were dominant on both sides of the ball. They're going to the AFC Championship game, And then Mike McDonald gets hired by Seattle, right? Like, all of a sudden, that defense leaves and. And Seattle has the number one defense in the NFL, right?

Like Baltimore.

So.

So where does the responsibility fall on the people making the fumbles, missing the kicks, making. Missing the tackles, right? We're. We're assuming that, you know, the players are faultless in this. In this situation. You know, Sean McDermott didn't go out there and fumble the ball for sure. You know, you know, Jim Har, John Harbaugh did not go out and get holding penalties and whatnot. So like, why don't the players ever get. We're both former players, we get it. And it's hard for us to te, you know, our brothers, but you know, at the end of the day, if this is results based business, like you got to produce and you got to produce when the lights are the brightest. Right. And if you can't, then there probably should be someone in there that can. Right? And that is the nature of competition. Right. That's certainly the case in business. Right. It's not, hey, you're a great guy. We like you. You got a lot of upside if you ain't producing. We are going to find someone who will. And that is just, that is the nature of capitalism. That is the nature of the game. So like, you know, are we wasting our time even talking about all these head coaches, you know, getting let go and they may or may not have deserved it, you know, why aren't we talking about the players? Obviously it's tougher to move players because of salaries and caps and, and that restriction. But like, you know, where does that onus fall? How do you. What's your take on that?

Okay, a couple things here. I'm probably like talking out of both sides of my mouth here with this. I think in the NFL, coaching has the biggest impact on the game. I remember you saying that all the other major sports, because of what I just talked about, like the game planning, the play calling. Right.

Like, yeah, you've said that.

But batter's box, when you get into a batter's box and you're going against a pitcher, that's like mono. A mono.

Right.

Like your manager is not like really dictating that. And like, again, not that that coaches don't affect basketball. They do, but I think you actually agree with that.

You got to make shots.

Yeah. Football matters more, right?

Like, yeah, the chess match, the play calling on a play to play basis, you just have the most impact on a game. And so therefore I think it makes the most difference. Coaching can have the biggest impact on football. So maybe that's why you get.

I also think that like, football players need it more than basketball players.

You know, mentally soft, you know, a.

Little more independent, you know, you know, we can do things on our own. So I prefer to look at that from that angle at Elks, but go ahead. A lot more direction, you know. Yeah, that's all right.

It's fine.

It's fine.

I was Reading the Buffalo Bills owner's comments, Pula on kind of like, why he decided to make this decision. And a thing he kept talking about was post game, going in and seeing Josh Allen crying in the locker room, right? And he, like, had his head down and he was, like, despondent. Like, he went up to him to try and talk to him, and he, like, he couldn't even get him under control. And so, like. And it's like, he kept referencing it and it was almost like he made the change because of him. And, like, again, Josh didn't. Josh got up to the mic and said, listen, he's crying because he felt like he let his team down, right? Like, he made these plays that. And obviously they're not even there without Joshua. This guy's like, one of the. He's maybe the greatest player in the league. You know, him, him and Pat, I think, and obviously Lamar, but, like, just phenomenal players. But, like, to your point, why couldn't it be just like, a couple bad plays, right? Like a couple goofy plays. But again, he. I, I go back to this. That Pagola made the change. It was almost like, because of this, right? Like, here's my star player, MVP in the league, and he's got, he's got his head down, crying, and, like, I got to do it for him.

Can I tell you something that I think relates to this Shane and back to, like, human nature stuff, dude. I think some of the owners, like, they want to be cool. They want to, like, hang out with the players. They like the players. Like, don't you think? Like, I think it's, like, easier to be, like, I don't care about the coach. Like, that person reports to me. But some of it, I genuinely, I think some of it, I'm not saying Pegula at all, but I'm just saying in general, I think some of this is, like, affection. You see all these things of, like, the players hanging out with the owners. And I think there's some, like, part that makes it harder for them to be, like, conflict, you know, seeking with the players. I also think that. I think a lot of times the owners feel like they have gotten the right players and it's the coach that's messed it up. You know what I'm saying? And again, like, so that they don't have to feel the blame. I think the other thing that's interesting of what we were saying earlier is, like, a lot of, like, your life. Munger has this quote of, like, the best way to get what you want over the Long term is just to deserve what you want over the long term. Right? Like, do you see what I'm saying? Like, it's kind of like if you are just actually doing things the right way over the long period of time, like, good things will happen. I really think this duration thing in sports is like a huge issue for that because nobody take. Has enough time or enough patience to like, trust that that will happen over their career. You know what I'm saying? Like, you really, you guys talked about this all the time, like you just wanted to make sure you got to play 10 years. But, like, it's hard to believe that the right thing will happen over a shorter time period. The shorter I make it happen, six months, one year, three years, it's harder to believe. I tell you, over 50 years, you're probably going to believe it. But I think the nature of professional sports being shorter makes it harder to kind of like, for lack of a better term, trust the process.

But that's the rub. There is no shortcut. So as much as you don't want to and you hope and pray it happens quickly, it doesn't happen like that. And, and in life. And like, that's, that's like the, that's. That's the secret. That's the secret right there. You can't rush it. That's the whole point of this.

I know. That's the, that's the point. That's the. I feel like it took us an hour and four minutes, but, like, that's the issue is everyone's trying to rush something that can't be rushed, you know?

Yes.

It takes nine months to have a baby.

Yes.

You can't, you can't make it.

Thank you.

Yes.

And when you push reset and start that clock over again. All right, as much as you want to will it and, and want to hope that you think that this is the right move, it's just going to take time and it's going to be different. And because it's different, you know, you just have to. You have to build up the entire trust, you know, the, the entire infrastructure in, in a much different way. You just, you just can't rush it, you know, Look, I hope these franchises do well. I really do. I'm not going to put my money on them to win a Super bowl anytime soon. I'm not.

Or the point that's so funny is like, they might have won it anyway. Like, the real thing that's going to be interesting is the attribution error. Like, if the Bills are three plays away from winning the super bowl this year or something. Whatever the number is, right? Let's say they change the coach and they put in whatever, some, anyone. They might win it next year, but they might have won it anyway with the other coach. And then they're going to walk around with their chest buffed out. Look at the change we made. But the reality is we don't know what the counterfactual would have been because it's all the work that's done before. Bezos used to say this, which is cool. He used to say when somebody congratulate him on a good quarter, he's like, it's the work we did three or four years ago that determined the quarter we have today. Like, I don't know what you're congratulating me on now. Like, that's all from work. That was years ago. And I can tell that's like music to brother Badier's ears, you know? Yes.

This is such an old school podcast today, you know, and we're talking, talking AGI, we're talking new things, but it's just old fashioned values of process plus time equals, equals success, people. Blue guys, blue gals out there. That's the formula. Write it down.

I think you mentioned the Hunt and Clark Hunt. Like, they were terrible, right? Like, Kansas City was terrible. It was the worst team in football. Andy Reid is thrown away from Philly and like one man's trash, another man's treasure. Like Kansas City is like, you know, as soon as he got hired is like, yes, it's like, like, yeah, you know, they're amazing. And like, it's funny, we trade for me and we have like, we go to the playoffs four out of the five years, but we're like, okay, we won one playoff or one playoff game. Like, like we weren't. But for them from like having been where they were, like, again, it was celebrated, right? And there was patience was allowed to happen, right? Like, it. Andy Reid didn't turn him into it. He didn't go, yeah, we didn't go.

Yeah, you're right. Like even now it didn't just happen.

Overnight there seven years in for him and like, did it take that, right? Like, did they have to go through that to be able to.

Let, let me ask you a question and both of you can answer that. So what are the traits or the characteristics of that person that is brought in? Do they need to make that change as quick as possible?

I think for all great coaches that step in, like, they know what it looks like. Shane does that make sense. Like, they already know what it looks like. They know what they know how. Like, and it, and it's specific to them. Like, Sean Payton knows what his team, what he wants his team to look like. Like he has an identity already. He's old school parcels like, I know what I want my team to look like. I know what I want my quarterback to look like. And again, like, I think so uncritical that when Denver got him that and then allows him to build it. Mike Vrabel knows what the identity of his team, right? Like he already, he knows again what he wants and again he building the pieces, then the blocks to like, get there.

I think all these guys think they know what they want. You know, Like, I don't think, I don't think they get the job. They're saying, I don't know, maybe, maybe we'll be this team, maybe we'll be the head team. You know, maybe they, they've seen it and they, they, their formula has had success, right? And they, they have a clear view of like, this is the, the, the shortest route for us to, to get over the hump, right? Because everyone, everyone thinks they got a plan. Everyone's got a plan to get.

No doubt. I was just gonna say they. All these guys go into the interview and like, yep, yep. All these guys go into the interview, think they have a plan, think they got it figured out. Very few do. How do you actually decipher that? So why John Harbaugh signs a hundred million dollar contract? Because the Giants are like, thank you very much, right, like to the Baltimore Ravens, like, thank you for firing this guy that we, this guy knows what it looks like. Again, he's been there. He's been to the mountaintop. He's built it before. Sean McDermott again hasn't won a championship, but I would argue, right, like, this Buffalo was not good when he got there and, and again the sustained success that he built. Which is why if you're an owner, I would, I wouldn't, I wouldn't let these guys out of the interview room. Like, I'm the, They're signing the contract. I'm getting the deal done. That's why it was brilliant for like the Denver Broncos to go make, be aggressive and get Sean Payton. Like they just very few of these proven guys. And I would absolutely go, I would do whatever I could to convince Mike Tomlin to not take a TV job and coach my football team.

Yeah.

But Shane, I think, I think in business, maybe one thing that I was thinking about for what you're saying, I think there's less variance that on a relative basis that determines outcomes over a long period of time than there is in sports. Okay. And so the reason I think that's relevant as an input is if you're not going the way you want to go in business, I think it is more necessary to make a significant change.

Right.

Than it is in sports. Like, it is plausible to me that the Bills could win a Super bowl without making a significant change even though they didn't achieve their goal this year. Right. I think that if you are the equivalent of a business that's not achieving its goals, I think it is unlikely that without a significant change of some sort. Right. You will achieve your goal. So I do think that the leader has to be willing to go make some changes. I think the second thing is in business, again, like action produces information. Trying stuff actually just like gets you more information that helps you. Right. And then once you know where you're going, you have to have the patience and you have to have a very honest sense of what your input metrics are back to process. You have to be tracking certain things that you're like, if we do these things right, we will get the outcome that we want. And I think that that actually requires a deep understanding of your business of what contributes to what. But I think the best leaders are actually pretty good at defining the leading indicator metrics of here's what will determine our long term success. I'm going to focus on that and I'm going to believe that it shows up in the lagging indicators later. I think the thing that we're saying, funny enough from sports, is like, there's like too much of a focus on the lagging indicator. Right. And not enough on the leading indicator, you know, of like what are the things that ultimately contribute and result in success. So I do think in business, the biggest thing I'm looking at when I meet a new leader is like, do they understand what the relationship is between the input metrics and long term success? And then are they, do they have a long term plan plus a very real sense of urgency to like push hard in the short term? Because sometimes in business, long term plan is euphemism for being lazy, not actually wanting to like do things and make hard decisions in the short term?

Yeah, yeah, that's, that's well said. That's, that's well said. Yeah.