Dave Shapiro : analyse d'un crash annoncé !

Good morning my friends. I'm here to tell you about a story that happened on the night of May 21, 22, 2025. We are at Teterbora airport in the east, on the east coast of the United States. We have a citation, two aircraft, It's a private executive jet that will take off shortly before midnight. There are six people on board. The pilot's name is Dave Shapiro, it's his personal aircraft. By the way, the registration November 666DS is a registration obtained from HARA and it includes his initials and number. The destination tonight is San Diego. They want to go to Bangam Rayfield, an executive airport, an airport for private jets located in Southern California. So in other words, it involves crossing the United States from one side to the other in a diagonal line making the flight at night. And I'll add a detail. Since the aircraft is a private flight, it is operated according to what are called the rules of the 91 park. These are fairly relaxed rules. The owner was able to obtain a waiver from the airport to fly the aircraft alone. So he is the only pilot that night. So the training aircraft has six people on board. So there are some captains, but there are also agents, musicians, people from his close protection, let's say. And they are leaving for San Diego, which they have to reach around 4am local time. The training aircraft is American. And then there is one thing you need to know. Mangomerfield airport is an airport without many resources. So it is not monitored 24 hours a day. At 6pm the air traffic controller closes the control tower, turns the key, goes home and returns the next morning for his morning shift. So at night there is no air traffic control service at this airport. So our pilot does practically the entire flight to his destination, Right. And then he goes into his descent. He can't talk to the controller at Mang rifield because he doesn't have one, but he talks to a regional controller. So a second problem arises which is that normally at the airport there is what is called an asos. ASOS is a system, it's an automatic weather station. It's a kind of station that has a system for measuring wind, rainfall, cloud height, visibility and all that. And in fact it automatically generates weather messages for aviation and other services that need them. This station had been out of order for about three years and we didn't have the budget to repair it. So this is an airport that was gradually falling into disrepair. The pilot therefore cannot access first hand weather information for the airport that night. So he speaks to the air traffic controller and asks, can you help me find out the weather? The controller knows that not far from the airport, about three or five miles away, is Miramar Airport. It's an airport that belongs to the US military. So there are planes, including stealth planes and all that, that are stationed there. And since it's a critical airport for the military, there are staff there day and night. So what the controller does is contact them to ask them for the weather on their ground. So it's not perfect, but I can't give you the weather forecast for Monomeri, but what I can do for you is tell you the weather forecast three or five miles away, and then you figure it out. You try to figure out how to put the pieces together a little. The Miramar controllers are going to give us terrible weather. They're going to say that, well, here the temperature is 14 degrees, the dew point is 14 degrees. That means that the temperature has reached a level where the water is going to start, the humidity in the air is going to start to appear in the form of droplets. So it's going to form clouds, fog, all that. The visibility is around 800 meters, which is to be expected. 800 meters of visibility at night, you know, it feels even worse than during the day. Otherwise, the clouds are at 200ft. There's a complete cloud ceiling, eight octaves, as we used to say at the time. So the sky is completely overcast and the clouds are about 200 dirty feet. So we're talking about 60 meters. That's not very good weather. Now, perhaps the good news here is that there is no wind. But of course, in general, when there is fog, there is no wind. Why? Because when there is wind, it tends to disperse the fog. So our pilot is informed, isn't he, of this weather and decides to continue on to Groverfield. Another detail. For some time, part of the lighting was supposed to land on one of the Runway's 28. And in fact, part of the lights that are in the axis of the Runway, or rather those in front of the Runway, were in trouble. It had been at the tip for some time. We didn't have the time, the budget for all that, the authorizations to repair them, a few missing lights in itself is not the end of the world for a landing. Let's say when the weather is good, when it is daylight, all that it is less critical. Except that here, in extremely poor conditions, more than minimal, well, it's a bit crazy. So there you have it. The pilot knows this, but he decides to continue anyway. We are clearly in a situation of technicalization, as the B sometimes refers to the French. B refers to the fascination of the target. Why? Because when you take a plane, when you take an airline, if the pilot or the airline judges that this flight cannot take place in good safety conditions, they will cancel it. They will say, we are not leaving, or we are leaving in four hours or whatever. Passengers who are not happy can absolutely go and yell at the counter, right? They can absolutely go and bother the agents right at the tkin office, but it won't go any further than that. On the other hand, when you are operating an aircraft yourself and you have staff on board and you are responsible for somewhere, if you do not land at your destination, well, you have to take care of it. You have to find them Ubers, find hotels, all that, and then transport them to their final destination the next day. And unfortunately, this often happens in cases like this, light aircraft or private aircraft. In any case, we are not really in light aviation. We still have a real private jet. And, well, that creates pressure that makes me absolutely want to land. On top of that, add to that the fatigue of working alone. There is no one he can share or discuss with, even if the guy is very experienced in aviation, but he is still all alone. So he cannot find someone to talk to, to say, what are we doing? Could we perhaps divert all this so somewhere he absolutely wants to land? There's this desire to land. So make an approach, a GPS approach. We will never know all the details. The reason we will not know is that there is no flight recorder in this plane. So there is what is called a cvr, which means there is a cockpit voice recorder. This means there is a voice and noise recorder in the cockpit. There are microphones that pick up the sound. It is recorded. But on the other hand, the data or the flight parameters are not captured and the plane was not required to have a recorder. Why? Because once again, it is operated under Part 91, and generally there are a lot of exemptions. There are a lot of things that would be mandatory in 135 or even 121, but not in 91. So our aircraft begins its descent, and then it flies a little too low relative to the glide path. That is to say, in particular, the. The NTSB reveals one point. There is a point where the aircraft should have passed approximately 1,300ft above sea level, 1300ft altitude. And, well, the aircraft flies over this point. Hold on tight at 1,100ft. That means that we are in a situation where an aircraft is flying fairly consistently below minimum altitudes. And we know why we saw so many of these accidents in the 70s and 80s and we hope that they would disappear completely. But unfortunately we are seeing a bit of a return of these things. It's that we have a pilot who flies low and thinks that by flying lower, I'll maximize the chances of seeing the Runway, seeing the Runway lights and landing. Whereas if I respect the altitudes, I'll probably reach a point where I'll have to decide if I can't see the Runway, I'll do a go around. Go around means at night, what do I do? It's 4am, I'm exhausted. If I do a go around, what do I do? Turn around, come back, land, go to another airport, all that you see, it's still quite a lot of pressure for a single pilot. So he starts flying consistently too low. Of course we have what's called the GPWS or the EGPWS in these situations, which can still be a last lifeline. But very often when you're in landing configuration, gear down, flaps extended, all that, the GPWS interprets that, well, you're approaching the ground but you know what you're doing. And a certain number of these alert modes are inhibited so that, well, it may not react, uh, practically until you're on the ground. Uh, otherwise, uh, it would yell every time you land. So, uh, that's why it has this tendency or this logic or this algorithm that when it senses that the plane is going to land, it tends to stay away a little bit. So what we have at a given moment is that the plane is about 2 kilometers, 5 or 3 kilometers from the Runway. Foreign it's flying at about 60ft above the ground. That means we're about 20 meters above the ground, 20 meters above the ground and 3 kilometers from the Runway. This is not a situation that is definitely not a future situation. Few people, especially at night, in fog, zero visibility, there are very few people who have experienced prosperity Based on initial data, same thing. What is going to happen is that he is going to hit. Huh? It's clear that's what we are here for. He is going to hit a high voltage line, which is quite surprising because there are 60ft above ground. Imagine that the high voltage line was measured at 95ft. That means that it is almost astonishing that he hit the line. He was supposed to go under it without even realizing that he did it because he was so low that I would have expected him to hit a truck or something rather than hit a high voltage line. He Was too low for that kind of thing. So what he is going to do is he is going to hit the high voltage line. It is going to sever the tail. That means the rear of the plane is going to hit the cable. Right? So at that moment, the rudder, the vertical stabilizer, a good part of the horizontal stabilizer and everything are torn off. So if you want, part of the tail will be torn off at that moment, brutally. We'll find it when we arrive. When the investigators arrive on site, the first thing they'll find is the power line. In addition, when planes hit them, these lines allow us to date the moment of the accident with extreme precision. Why? Because when a plane hits them, it can create short circuits, spikes or something else at the electrical operator level. And it's dated to the nearest millisecond. So when it hits them, the rear of the plane is torn off. Okay? It will fall almost 60 meters from the power line. The plane will continue for 300 meters. Right? And then it will hit a house. So it will hit a house. There are eight people on the ground who are fortunately slightly injured. The house was gutted. There was a big fire in the neighborhood. About 20 vehicles were destroyed on the ground. But fortunately, miraculously, the eight people on the ground who were involved are all safe and sound. There was a lot of material damage, so the house and the private jet were destroyed. Of course, the human toll of the night was six dead. Dave Shapiro, the five people who were with him, unfortunately, everyone died in this accident. So this is an accident called cfit, which means controlled flight into terrain, where it has happened even to Boeing 747s. You can watch this in this channel. There are a lot of cases like that. But let's say aviation in general has started to really become aware of this type of accident. And normally they had tended to drop sharply, sharply. But we are seeing a bit of a return to the spotlight of this type of tragedy, unfortunately. So. So there you have it, my friends. Focus on. On the objective. Pilot fatigue alone. Accumulation of. Accumulation of worries. Light. Light that is broken. He looked for it, but probably there was nothing to see because the light was mostly burnt out. The weather station is giving him nothing. If it works, the weather station would have given him even lower minimums than those of Miramar. Maybe he wouldn't have even tried if the station was working, because, well, five kilometers, we have 800 meters of visibility. It's on site at Montgomery. They had 300 meters or 200 meters or whatever. In any case, it was very degraded. That's it. My friends, thank you for listening to this video so far. I might tell you more about it when the final report comes out, if it adds anything new. Thank you to those who support the channel on Patreon. Without them, this channel would never have been possible. And I'll see you in the next one.